DaatanElections 2026
עברית/EN
A running track record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: OpenExpected resolution date: Jan 1, 2027Last updated: Oct 5, 2026

Likud will secure more than 33 seats in the next Israeli Knesset election by December 31, 2026.

What is the probability that Likud will secure more than 33 seats in the next Israeli Knesset election by December 31, 2026? As of Oct 5, 2026: the evidence estimate is 22%; the tracked-source panel average is 41%.

Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists

View on Daatan
Evidence estimate
22%

Who called it — by source

Panel average: 41%
Source / PersonConfidenceConfidence Over TimeBrier / Track Record
Amit Segal
Person
90
as of Aug 31, 2026
0.3 · Poor (6)
Ben Caspit
Person
52
0.29 · Poor (11)
Nadav Eyal
Person
28
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.32 · Poor (3)
Anna Barsky
Person
54
as of Aug 26, 2026
0.1 · Good (3)
Guy Bechor
Person
40
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.3 · Poor (4)
Hananya Naftali
Person
53
as of Aug 10, 2026
—
Ynetnews
Outlet
57
0.14 · Good (7)
Ynet
Outlet
46
0.13 · Good (11)
Maariv
Outlet
43
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.15 · Good (9)
Srugim
Outlet
37
0.26 · Poor (10)
Walla
Outlet
34
0.16 · Good (11)
Al Jazeera
Outlet
33
0.14 · Good (8)
Jerusalem Post
Outlet
31
0.2 · Fair (10)
Israel National News
Outlet
27
as of Aug 28, 2026
0.34 · Poor (7)
כיכר השבת
Other source
70
0.17 · Good (1)
Marianna Belenkaya
Other source
65
as of Jul 12, 2026
0.34 · Poor (4)
HaPargod
Other source
63
0.15 · Good (2)
כיכר השבת; יאיר טוקר
Other source
54
0.17 · Good (1)
Yinon Magal
Other source
48
0.07 · Excellent (2)
Globes Whistleblower team
Other source
42
—
Dilara Hamit
Other source
39
—
כיכר השבת; יוני גבאי
Other source
36
0.3 · Poor (6)
pbs.org
Other source
35
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
en.globes.co.il
Other source
32
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.72 · Poor (1)
כיכר השבת; דוד הכהן
Other source
32
—
Khaled Yousef; Ikram Kouachi
Other source
31
—
al-monitor.com
Other source
28
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.28 · Poor (2)
Zein Khalil; Serdar Dincel
Other source
28
as of Aug 27, 2026
0.72 · Poor (2)
Abdel Ra'ouf Arnaout; Lina Altawell
Other source
28
as of Sep 4, 2026
—
Emily Rose Aug
Other source
25
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
Ikrame Kouachi
Other source
20
—
כיכר השבת; משה בשן
Other source
18
0.17 · Good (2)
כיכר השבת; אריה רוזן
Other source
15
—
כיכר השבת; קובי ישראל
Other source
15
0.16 · Good (2)
Abdel Ra'ouf D A R Arnaout; Rania Abushamala
Other source
14
—
Rina Bassist
Other source
12
as of Aug 27, 2026
—

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