A running record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: OpenExpected resolution date: Jan 1, 2027Last updated: Aug 21, 2026

Likud will secure more than 33 seats in the next Israeli Knesset election by December 31, 2026.

What is the probability that Likud will secure more than 33 seats in the next Israeli Knesset election by December 31, 2026? As of Aug 21, 2026: the AI estimate is 40%; the tracked-source panel average is 40%.

Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists

AI estimate
40%
Polymarket16%

Who called it — by source

Panel average: 40%
Source / PersonConfidenceConfidence Over TimeBrier / Track Record
Amit Segal
Person
39
Ben Caspit
Person
42
0.42 · Poor (1)
Nadav Eyal
Person
32
Anna Barsky
Person
22
Guy Bechor
Person
25
Hananya Naftali
Person
53
JNS
Outlet
100
as of Jul 16, 2026
BBC News
Outlet
62
Ynetnews
Outlet
55
0.06 · Excellent (1)
Ynet
Outlet
44
0.11 · Good (1)
Srugim
Outlet
44
Walla
Outlet
41
0.03 · Excellent (1)
Maariv
Outlet
41
Al Jazeera
Outlet
36
0.17 · Good (1)
Jerusalem Post
Outlet
32
0.05 · Excellent (1)
Israel National News
Outlet
32
Marianna Belenkaya
Other source
65
as of Jul 12, 2026
pbs.org
Other source
39
as of Jul 21, 2026
NEWS WIRES
Other source
39
al-monitor.com
Other source
34
as of Jul 16, 2026
0.41 · Poor (1)
Emily Rose Aug
Other source
29
en.globes.co.il
Other source
21

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