A running track record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: Resolved — Came trueExpected resolution date: Sep 12, 2026Last updated: Sep 10, 2026
A single large political list will not be formed, including at least four of the following six politicians: Benny Gantz, Yoaz Hendel, Hili Tropper, Ayelet Shaked, Yuli Edelstein, and Gilaad Erdan, by the final deadline for submitting candidate lists for the next general elections in Israel, expected to take place by December 31, 2026.
Did it come true: A single large political list will not be formed, including at least four of the following six politicians: Benny Gantz, Yoaz Hendel, Hili Tropper, Ayelet Shaked, Yuli Edelstein, and Gilaad Erdan, by the final deadline for submitting candidate lists for the next general elections in Israel, expected to take place by December 31, 2026? Resolved: yes — it came true.
Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists
Final estimate
54%
Came trueResolved Sep 16, 2026
The Oracul's final estimate before resolution was 54%.Hedged
Best call
- Amit Segal75%Brier 0.06 · 3 articles
Biggest miss
- Zein Khalil; Serdar Dincel13%Brier 0.76 · 1 article
Who was right — scored
Panel average: 52%HedgedRanked by Brier score on this forecast alone: the squared gap between a source's last recorded confidence and what actually happened. 0 is a perfect call, 0.25 is a coin flip.
| Rank | Source / Person | Final call | Verdict · Brier | Confidence Over Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amit Segal Person | 75 3 articles | Called it0.06 | |
| 2 | כיכר השבת; יוני גבאי Other source | 73 3 articles | Called it0.07 | |
| 3 | Ynetnews Outlet | 69 3 articles | Called it0.10 | |
| 4 | Yinon Magal Other source | 65 1 article | Called it0.12 | |
| 5 | Al Jazeera Outlet | 62 8 articles | Hedged0.14 | |
| 5 | Maayan Lubell Jul Other source | 62 1 article | Hedged0.14 | |
| 7 | כיכר השבת; חנני ברייטקופף Other source | 60 1 article | Hedged0.16 | |
| 8 | Abdelraouf Arnaout; Mohammad Sio Other source | 59 1 article | Hedged0.17 | |
| 8 | כיכר השבת Other source | 59 1 article | Hedged0.17 | |
| 10 | Ynet Outlet | 57 46 articles | Hedged0.18 | |
| 11 | Jerusalem Post Outlet | 56 13 articles | Hedged0.19 | |
| 12 | Walla Outlet | 54 18 articles | Hedged0.21 | |
| 12 | Ben Caspit Person | 54 8 articles | Hedged0.21 | |
| 14 | Srugim Outlet | 52 37 articles | Hedged0.23 | |
| 15 | aa.com.tr Other source | 50 1 article | Hedged0.25 | |
| 16 | Middle East Eye Outlet | 48 1 article | Hedged0.27 | |
| 17 | Maariv Outlet | 44 5 articles | Hedged0.31 | |
| 18 | Nadav Eyal Person | 36 2 articles | Missed0.41 | |
| 19 | Guy Bechor Person | 35 1 article | Missed0.42 | |
| 19 | Marianna Belenkaya Other source | 35 2 articles | Missed0.42 | |
| 21 | Israel National News Outlet | 20 2 articles | Missed0.64 | |
| 22 | Zein Khalil; Serdar Dincel Other source | 13 1 article | Missed0.76 |
The verdict
Got it right — Amit Segal, כיכר השבת; יוני גבאי, Ynetnews, Yinon Magal.Got it wrong — Nadav Eyal, Guy Bechor, Marianna Belenkaya, Israel National News, Zein Khalil; Serdar Dincel.Hedged — Al Jazeera, Maayan Lubell Jul, כיכר השבת; חנני ברייטקופף, Abdelraouf Arnaout; Mohammad Sio, כיכר השבת, Ynet, Jerusalem Post, Walla, Ben Caspit, Srugim, aa.com.tr, Middle East Eye, Maariv.
The articles behind this
157 articlesEvery article the Oracul read on this forecast, newest first. A piece re-read across several snapshots counts once.
- כיכר השבת; יוני גבאיSep 10, 2026, 06:09 PMkikar.co.il
- SrugimSep 9, 2026, 02:15 PMsrugim.co.il
- WallaSep 9, 2026, 01:45 PMnews.walla.co.il
- Al JazeeraSep 9, 2026, 01:14 PMaljazeera.com
- SrugimSep 9, 2026, 10:22 AMsrugim.co.il
- Amit SegalSep 9, 2026, 08:20 AMt.me
- Al JazeeraSep 8, 2026, 07:20 PMaljazeera.net
- Abdelraouf Arnaout; Mohammad SioSep 8, 2026, 05:46 PMaa.com.tr
- Jerusalem PostSep 8, 2026, 02:10 PMjpost.com
- WallaSep 8, 2026, 12:49 PMnews.walla.co.il
- SrugimSep 7, 2026, 07:05 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimSep 7, 2026, 06:34 PMsrugim.co.il
- כיכר השבתSep 7, 2026, 04:41 PMkikar.co.il
- SrugimSep 7, 2026, 01:26 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimSep 7, 2026, 09:20 AMsrugim.co.il
- Jerusalem PostSep 7, 2026, 02:09 AMjpost.com
- WallaSep 6, 2026, 09:22 PMnews.walla.co.il
- WallaSep 6, 2026, 04:36 PMnews.walla.co.il
- YnetSep 6, 2026, 03:54 PMynet.co.il
- כיכר השבת; חנני ברייטקופףSep 6, 2026, 01:10 PMkikar.co.il
Show all 157 articles
- Yinon MagalSep 6, 2026, 11:41 AMt.me
- Ben CaspitSep 5, 2026, 04:42 PMt.me
- Ben CaspitSep 5, 2026, 04:42 PMt.me
- Ben CaspitSep 5, 2026, 04:42 PMt.me
- WallaSep 5, 2026, 04:41 PMnews.walla.co.il
- SrugimSep 3, 2026, 08:34 PMsrugim.co.il
- כיכר השבת; יוני גבאיSep 2, 2026, 08:33 PMkikar.co.il
- SrugimSep 2, 2026, 05:09 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimSep 1, 2026, 05:58 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 31, 2026, 01:21 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 30, 2026, 06:12 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 30, 2026, 04:18 PMsrugim.co.il
- כיכר השבת; יוני גבאיAug 29, 2026, 07:09 PMkikar.co.il
- YnetAug 29, 2026, 11:21 AMynet.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 28, 2026, 12:59 PMjpost.com
- SrugimAug 27, 2026, 08:19 PMsrugim.co.il
- Zein Khalil; Serdar DincelAug 27, 2026, 05:39 AMaa.com.tr
- Amit SegalAug 26, 2026, 02:23 PMnewsletter.amitsegal.net
- SrugimAug 25, 2026, 07:46 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 25, 2026, 05:19 PMsrugim.co.il
- Al JazeeraAug 25, 2026, 04:32 PMaljazeera.net
- aa.com.trAug 25, 2026, 03:09 PMaa.com.tr
- SrugimAug 24, 2026, 01:32 PMsrugim.co.il
- Amit SegalAug 24, 2026, 10:41 AMnewsletter.amitsegal.net
- YnetAug 24, 2026, 10:41 AMynet.co.il
- YnetnewsAug 24, 2026, 10:41 AMynetnews.com
- MaarivAug 24, 2026, 10:37 AMmaariv.co.il
- YnetAug 24, 2026, 10:37 AMynet.co.il
- YnetAug 24, 2026, 10:37 AMynet.co.il
- SrugimAug 24, 2026, 01:33 AMsrugim.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 20, 2026, 09:24 PMjpost.com
- Middle East EyeAug 20, 2026, 01:31 PMmiddleeasteye.net
- SrugimAug 20, 2026, 09:15 AMsrugim.co.il
- MaarivAug 20, 2026, 06:10 AMmaariv.co.il
- YnetAug 20, 2026, 12:21 AMynet.co.il
- SrugimAug 19, 2026, 11:09 PMsrugim.co.il
- MaarivAug 19, 2026, 11:41 AMmaariv.co.il
- MaarivAug 19, 2026, 06:04 AMmaariv.co.il
- YnetAug 19, 2026, 12:17 AMynet.co.il
- YnetAug 18, 2026, 09:44 PMynet.co.il
- SrugimAug 18, 2026, 11:37 AMsrugim.co.il
- Marianna BelenkayaAug 18, 2026, 11:05 AMt.me
- SrugimAug 18, 2026, 06:09 AMsrugim.co.il
- YnetAug 17, 2026, 02:39 PMynet.co.il
- YnetAug 17, 2026, 12:44 PMynet.co.il
- WallaAug 17, 2026, 11:41 AMnews.walla.co.il
- SrugimAug 17, 2026, 11:06 AMsrugim.co.il
- WallaAug 17, 2026, 10:39 AMnews.walla.co.il
- YnetAug 17, 2026, 10:39 AMynet.co.il
- YnetAug 17, 2026, 09:59 AMynet.co.il
- WallaAug 17, 2026, 08:06 AMnews.walla.co.il
- SrugimAug 17, 2026, 07:54 AMsrugim.co.il
- YnetAug 16, 2026, 10:08 PMynet.co.il
- SrugimAug 16, 2026, 09:07 PMsrugim.co.il
- YnetAug 16, 2026, 08:36 PMynet.co.il
- Al JazeeraAug 16, 2026, 05:52 PMaljazeera.net
- YnetAug 16, 2026, 03:17 PMynet.co.il
- SrugimAug 16, 2026, 02:38 PMsrugim.co.il
- WallaAug 16, 2026, 12:34 PMnews.walla.co.il
- SrugimAug 16, 2026, 09:48 AMsrugim.co.il
- YnetAug 15, 2026, 11:01 PMynet.co.il
- YnetAug 14, 2026, 04:01 PMynet.co.il
- SrugimAug 14, 2026, 10:11 AMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 13, 2026, 10:11 AMsrugim.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 13, 2026, 06:02 AMjpost.com
- YnetnewsAug 13, 2026, 06:02 AMynetnews.com
- SrugimAug 12, 2026, 11:18 PMsrugim.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 12, 2026, 09:49 PMjpost.com
- Ben CaspitAug 12, 2026, 02:11 PMt.me
- Ben CaspitAug 12, 2026, 10:32 AMt.me
- YnetAug 11, 2026, 04:04 PMynet.co.il
- SrugimAug 11, 2026, 11:42 AMsrugim.co.il
- WallaAug 11, 2026, 09:59 AMnews.walla.co.il
- YnetAug 11, 2026, 09:07 AMynet.co.il
- SrugimAug 11, 2026, 06:42 AMsrugim.co.il
- YnetAug 11, 2026, 05:34 AMynet.co.il
- Ben CaspitAug 10, 2026, 04:22 PMt.me
- Jerusalem PostAug 10, 2026, 03:17 PMjpost.com
- SrugimAug 10, 2026, 02:59 PMsrugim.co.il
- YnetAug 10, 2026, 01:04 PMynet.co.il
- Maayan Lubell JulAug 10, 2026, 11:20 AMal-monitor.com
- SrugimAug 10, 2026, 09:36 AMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 10, 2026, 07:23 AMsrugim.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 9, 2026, 08:15 PMjpost.com
- SrugimAug 9, 2026, 08:05 PMsrugim.co.il
- MaarivAug 9, 2026, 06:13 PMmaariv.co.il
- WallaAug 9, 2026, 05:51 PMnews.walla.co.il
- SrugimAug 9, 2026, 03:36 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 8, 2026, 11:02 AMsrugim.co.il
- YnetnewsAug 6, 2026, 11:36 PMynetnews.com
- Ben CaspitAug 6, 2026, 08:23 PMt.me
- YnetAug 6, 2026, 02:51 AMynet.co.il
- WallaAug 5, 2026, 04:36 PMnews.walla.co.il
- YnetAug 5, 2026, 06:26 AMynet.co.il
- WallaAug 4, 2026, 09:33 PMnews.walla.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 3, 2026, 10:10 PMjpost.com
- Guy BechorAug 2, 2026, 12:05 PMt.me
- WallaAug 1, 2026, 01:02 PMnews.walla.co.il
- YnetJul 31, 2026, 12:24 PMynet.co.il
- Jerusalem PostJul 31, 2026, 06:13 AMjpost.com
- YnetJul 31, 2026, 12:15 AMynet.co.il
- WallaJul 29, 2026, 05:10 PMnews.walla.co.il
- Marianna BelenkayaJul 29, 2026, 05:10 PMt.me
- WallaJul 29, 2026, 01:27 PMnews.walla.co.il
- Jerusalem PostJul 28, 2026, 12:29 AMjpost.com
- Ben CaspitJul 27, 2026, 11:53 AMt.me
- YnetJul 26, 2026, 08:51 PMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 22, 2026, 12:57 PMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 20, 2026, 07:20 PMynet.co.il
- Al JazeeraJul 20, 2026, 01:07 PMaljazeera.net
- Al JazeeraJul 20, 2026, 06:02 AMaljazeera.net
- YnetJul 17, 2026, 11:43 AMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 17, 2026, 11:43 AMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 17, 2026, 11:43 AMynet.co.il
- Nadav Eyal · YnetJul 17, 2026, 01:19 AMynet.co.il
- WallaJul 16, 2026, 04:55 PMnews.walla.co.il
- WallaJul 16, 2026, 04:55 PMnews.walla.co.il
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 03:27 PMynet.co.il
- Nadav Eyal · YnetJul 15, 2026, 01:10 PMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 09:29 AMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 08:34 AMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 05:56 AMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 02:57 AMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 14, 2026, 03:54 PMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 14, 2026, 01:15 PMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 14, 2026, 12:27 PMynet.co.il
- Jerusalem PostJul 13, 2026, 09:19 PMjpost.com
- Al JazeeraJul 13, 2026, 12:06 PMaljazeera.net
- Jerusalem PostJul 13, 2026, 12:06 PMjpost.com
- YnetJul 13, 2026, 12:06 PMynet.co.il
- Israel National NewsJul 13, 2026, 04:04 AMisraelnationalnews.com
- Al JazeeraJul 13, 2026, 01:19 AMaljazeera.com
- YnetJul 13, 2026, 01:19 AMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 13, 2026, 12:03 AMynet.co.il
- Israel National NewsJul 8, 2026, 07:52 PMisraelnationalnews.com
- YnetJul 7, 2026, 08:54 PMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 7, 2026, 05:03 PMynet.co.il
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