A running record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: OpenExpected resolution date: Sep 12, 2026Last updated: Aug 20, 2026
A single large political list will not be formed, including at least four of the following six politicians: Benny Gantz, Yoaz Hendel, Hili Tropper, Ayelet Shaked, Yuli Edelstein, and Gilaad Erdan, by the final deadline for submitting candidate lists for the next general elections in Israel, expected to take place by December 31, 2026.
What is the probability that A single large political list will not be formed, including at least four of the following six politicians: Benny Gantz, Yoaz Hendel, Hili Tropper, Ayelet Shaked, Yuli Edelstein, and Gilaad Erdan, by the final deadline for submitting candidate lists for the next general elections in Israel, expected to take place by December 31, 2026? As of Aug 20, 2026: the AI estimate is 47%; the tracked-source panel average is 56%.
Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists
AI estimate
47%
Who called it — by source
Panel average: 56%| Source / Person | Confidence | Confidence Over Time | Brier / Track Record |
|---|---|---|---|
Ben Caspit Person | 55 | Jul 27, 2026, 11:53 AM Aug 6, 2026, 08:23 PM Aug 10, 2026, 04:22 PM Aug 12, 2026, 10:32 AM Aug 12, 2026, 02:11 PM | 0.42 · Poor (1) |
Nadav Eyal Person | 36 as of Jul 17, 2026 | Jul 15, 2026, 01:10 PM Jul 17, 2026, 01:19 AM | — |
Guy Bechor Person | 65 | Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 PM | — |
Israel National News Outlet | 80 | Jul 8, 2026, 07:52 PM Jul 9, 2026, 06:56 AM Jul 9, 2026, 04:11 PM Jul 13, 2026, 12:03 AM Jul 13, 2026, 04:04 AM Jul 13, 2026, 12:06 PM Jul 13, 2026, 09:19 PM Jul 14, 2026, 12:27 PM Jul 14, 2026, 11:26 PM Jul 15, 2026, 02:57 AM Jul 15, 2026, 08:34 AM Jul 15, 2026, 09:29 AM Jul 15, 2026, 07:40 PM Jul 16, 2026, 03:52 AM Jul 20, 2026, 07:40 PM Jul 21, 2026, 12:20 PM Jul 22, 2026, 01:15 PM Jul 24, 2026, 01:31 PM | — |
Ynetnews Outlet | 63 | Aug 6, 2026, 11:36 PM Aug 13, 2026, 06:02 AM | 0.06 · Excellent (1) |
Al Jazeera Outlet | 56 | Jul 13, 2026, 01:19 AM Jul 13, 2026, 12:06 PM Jul 15, 2026, 09:29 AM Jul 15, 2026, 01:10 PM Jul 17, 2026, 08:12 AM Jul 17, 2026, 01:56 PM Jul 17, 2026, 11:09 PM Jul 19, 2026, 04:48 PM Jul 20, 2026, 06:02 AM Jul 20, 2026, 01:07 PM Jul 21, 2026, 12:20 PM Jul 22, 2026, 12:57 PM Jul 23, 2026, 10:08 AM Jul 24, 2026, 01:31 PM Jul 25, 2026, 08:21 AM Jul 25, 2026, 10:35 PM Jul 25, 2026, 11:11 PM Jul 26, 2026, 10:58 PM Aug 16, 2026, 05:52 PM | 0.17 · Good (1) |
Walla Outlet | 55 | Jul 16, 2026, 04:55 PM Jul 29, 2026, 01:27 PM Jul 29, 2026, 05:10 PM Aug 1, 2026, 01:02 PM Aug 4, 2026, 09:33 PM Aug 5, 2026, 04:36 PM Aug 9, 2026, 05:51 PM Aug 11, 2026, 09:59 AM Aug 16, 2026, 12:34 PM Aug 17, 2026, 08:06 AM Aug 17, 2026, 10:39 AM Aug 17, 2026, 11:41 AM | 0.03 · Excellent (1) |
Jerusalem Post Outlet | 54 | Jul 13, 2026, 12:06 PM Jul 13, 2026, 09:19 PM | 0.05 · Excellent (1) |
Ynet Outlet | 50 | Jul 7, 2026, 05:03 PM Jul 7, 2026, 08:54 PM Jul 9, 2026, 06:56 AM Jul 9, 2026, 12:40 PM Jul 9, 2026, 04:11 PM Jul 12, 2026, 12:42 AM Jul 12, 2026, 05:32 PM Jul 12, 2026, 08:01 PM Jul 12, 2026, 10:02 PM Jul 13, 2026, 12:03 AM Jul 13, 2026, 01:19 AM Jul 13, 2026, 04:04 AM Jul 13, 2026, 12:06 PM Jul 13, 2026, 09:19 PM Jul 14, 2026, 12:27 PM Jul 14, 2026, 01:15 PM Jul 14, 2026, 03:54 PM Jul 14, 2026, 08:16 PM Jul 14, 2026, 11:26 PM Jul 15, 2026, 02:57 AM Jul 15, 2026, 04:08 AM Jul 15, 2026, 05:56 AM Jul 15, 2026, 08:34 AM Jul 15, 2026, 09:29 AM Jul 15, 2026, 11:17 AM Jul 15, 2026, 01:10 PM Jul 15, 2026, 03:27 PM Jul 15, 2026, 07:40 PM Jul 16, 2026, 03:52 AM Jul 16, 2026, 10:51 AM Jul 16, 2026, 12:45 PM Jul 16, 2026, 11:26 PM Jul 17, 2026, 12:50 AM Jul 17, 2026, 01:19 AM Jul 17, 2026, 01:51 AM Jul 17, 2026, 07:20 AM Jul 17, 2026, 08:12 AM Jul 17, 2026, 11:43 AM Jul 17, 2026, 01:56 PM Jul 17, 2026, 11:09 PM Jul 18, 2026, 08:18 AM Jul 19, 2026, 04:48 PM Jul 19, 2026, 11:50 PM Jul 20, 2026, 12:45 AM Jul 20, 2026, 07:20 PM Jul 21, 2026, 06:08 PM Jul 22, 2026, 12:57 PM Jul 22, 2026, 01:15 PM Jul 23, 2026, 10:08 AM Jul 26, 2026, 08:51 PM Jul 31, 2026, 12:15 AM Jul 31, 2026, 12:24 PM Aug 5, 2026, 06:26 AM Aug 6, 2026, 02:51 AM Aug 10, 2026, 01:04 PM Aug 11, 2026, 05:34 AM Aug 11, 2026, 09:07 AM Aug 11, 2026, 04:04 PM Aug 14, 2026, 04:01 PM Aug 15, 2026, 11:01 PM Aug 16, 2026, 03:17 PM Aug 16, 2026, 08:36 PM Aug 16, 2026, 10:08 PM Aug 17, 2026, 09:59 AM Aug 17, 2026, 10:39 AM Aug 17, 2026, 12:44 PM Aug 17, 2026, 02:39 PM Aug 18, 2026, 09:44 PM Aug 19, 2026, 12:17 AM Aug 20, 2026, 12:21 AM | 0.11 · Good (1) |
Middle East Eye Outlet | 48 | Aug 20, 2026, 01:31 PM | 0 · Excellent (1) |
Srugim Outlet | 47 | Aug 8, 2026, 11:02 AM Aug 9, 2026, 03:36 PM Aug 9, 2026, 08:05 PM Aug 10, 2026, 07:23 AM Aug 10, 2026, 09:36 AM Aug 10, 2026, 02:59 PM Aug 11, 2026, 06:42 AM Aug 11, 2026, 11:42 AM Aug 12, 2026, 11:18 PM Aug 13, 2026, 10:11 AM Aug 14, 2026, 10:11 AM Aug 16, 2026, 09:48 AM Aug 16, 2026, 02:38 PM Aug 16, 2026, 09:07 PM Aug 17, 2026, 07:54 AM Aug 17, 2026, 11:06 AM Aug 18, 2026, 06:09 AM Aug 18, 2026, 11:37 AM Aug 19, 2026, 11:09 PM Aug 20, 2026, 09:15 AM | — |
Maariv Outlet | 39 | Aug 9, 2026, 06:13 PM Aug 19, 2026, 06:04 AM Aug 19, 2026, 11:41 AM Aug 20, 2026, 06:10 AM | — |
Maayan Lubell Jul Other source | 62 | Aug 10, 2026, 11:20 AM | — |
al-monitor.com Other source | 62 | — | 0.41 · Poor (1) |
Sean Carney Other source | 55 | Aug 18, 2026, 05:05 PM | — |
Marianna Belenkaya Other source | 33 | Jul 29, 2026, 05:10 PM Aug 18, 2026, 11:05 AM | — |
Main disagreement
High confidence — Guy Bechor, Israel National News.Low confidence — Maariv.
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