DaatanElections 2026
עברית/EN
A running track record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: OpenExpected resolution date: Jan 1, 2027Last updated: Oct 5, 2026

Benjamin Netanyahu will win the 2026 Israeli general election and be appointed Prime Minister.

What is the probability that Benjamin Netanyahu will win the 2026 Israeli general election and be appointed Prime Minister? As of Oct 5, 2026: the evidence estimate is 48%; the tracked-source panel average is 52%.

Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists

View on Daatan
Evidence estimate
48%
Polymarket36%

Who called it — by source

Panel average: 52%
Source / PersonConfidenceConfidence Over TimeBrier / Track Record
Amit Segal
Person
41
0.3 · Poor (6)
Ben Caspit
Person
45
0.29 · Poor (11)
Nadav Eyal
Person
39
0.32 · Poor (3)
Tal Shalev
Person
41
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.5 · Poor (1)
Anna Barsky
Person
40
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.1 · Good (3)
Guy Bechor
Person
45
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.3 · Poor (4)
Hananya Naftali
Person
65
as of Sep 5, 2026
—
Israel National News
Outlet
80
0.34 · Poor (7)
JNS
Outlet
69
—
Maariv
Outlet
60
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.15 · Good (9)
Middle East Eye
Outlet
58
as of Sep 3, 2026
0.22 · Fair (4)
Le Monde
Outlet
57
as of Aug 26, 2026
—
Srugim
Outlet
55
0.26 · Poor (10)
Walla
Outlet
54
0.16 · Good (11)
Ynet
Outlet
48
0.13 · Good (11)
Jerusalem Post
Outlet
45
0.2 · Fair (10)
Al Jazeera
Outlet
44
0.14 · Good (8)
BBC News
Outlet
38
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
TOI World Desk
Other source
100
as of Jul 17, 2026
0 · Excellent (1)
iranherald.com
Other source
100
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
Prisha Patnaik
Other source
100
as of Aug 26, 2026
—
Nils A Haug
Other source
84
—
Ayush Pandey
Other source
74
—
כיכר השבת; חזקי שטרן
Other source
73
as of Sep 3, 2026
—
Dov Lieber
Other source
72
—
Yinon Magal
Other source
63
0.07 · Excellent (2)
Vijaya Srivastava
Other source
63
—
כיכר השבת
Other source
63
0.17 · Good (1)
Agence France-Presse Oct 5
Other source
63
—
כיכר השבת; יוני גבאי
Other source
62
0.3 · Poor (6)
Said Amori; Rania Abushamala
Other source
62
—
Meduza
Other source
62
0.41 · Poor (1)
Mohammad Sio
Other source
60
as of Aug 3, 2026
—
HaTzel
Other source
60
—
Emma Graham-Harrison
Other source
59
as of Aug 24, 2026
0 · Excellent (1)
Maira Butt
Other source
59
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
Tugce Ersoy Ceylan
Other source
59
—
David E Rosenberg
Other source
56
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
«Ազատություն» Ռ; Կ
Other source
50
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.25 · Poor (1)
Kirill Semenov
Other source
50
as of Aug 17, 2026
—
theguardian.com
Other source
49
as of Jul 15, 2026
—
FRANCE 24
Other source
49
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
«Ազատություն» Ռ; Կ Հայկական Ծառայություն
Other source
49
—
Aaron David Miller; Daniel C Kurtzer
Other source
46
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
Khaled Yousef; Ikram Kouachi
Other source
46
—
Globes Whistleblower team
Other source
46
—
כיכר השבת; בני סולומון
Other source
44
—
HaPargod
Other source
43
0.15 · Good (2)
en.globes.co.il
Other source
42
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.72 · Poor (1)
tehrantimes.com
Other source
37
—
Maayan Lubell Jul
Other source
36
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.14 · Good (1)
Marianna Belenkaya
Other source
35
as of Jul 22, 2026
0.34 · Poor (4)
pbs.org
Other source
35
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
Emily Rose Aug
Other source
29
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
Lorenzo Tondo; Quique Kierszenbaum; Ana Lucía González Paz
Other source
29
—
Gianluca Pacchiani; Jay Deshmukh Jul
Other source
28
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
al-monitor.com
Other source
27
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.28 · Poor (2)
Abdel Raouf Arnaout; Lina Altawell
Other source
27
—
Khaled Yousef; Lina Altawell
Other source
27
—
Rina Bassist
Other source
20
as of Aug 27, 2026
—
Lina Altawell
Other source
20
—
Said Amori; Tarek Chouiref
Other source
17
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
Zein Khalil; Serdar Dincel
Other source
17
as of Aug 27, 2026
0.72 · Poor (2)
Maayan Lubell Sep 8
Other source
15
—
Amos Harel
Other source
14
as of Sep 2, 2026
—
Or-ly Barlev
Other source
5
—
middleeaststar.com
Other source
0
as of Aug 20, 2026
—
Abu Ali Express
Other source
0
as of Sep 1, 2026
—
Main disagreement

High confidence — Israel National News, JNS.Low confidence — Nadav Eyal.

The articles behind this

378 articles

Every article the Oracul read on this forecast, newest first. A piece re-read across several snapshots counts once.

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