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Israeli news and content site for the religious-Zionist public; owned by Patrick Drahi.

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How accurate has Srugim been on 2026 election calls? We track every prediction they make and score it once the outcome is known.

Forecasts covered

26 / 27

Articles cited

322

Brier / Track Record

0.26

Poor (10)

Last seen

Oct 5, 2026

Forecast	Confidence	Confidence Over Time
At least two Arab parties will run in the 2026 elections as a joint list.	88
In the next Knesset elections, no single party will receive more than 25 seats.	72
The first government sworn in after the next Knesset elections will include at least one party from the current opposition and one party from the current coalition.	63
A law mandating Haredi enlistment into the Israel Defense Forces will be passed by the Knesset by December 31, 2030.	63
At least one party will announce its withdrawal from the race for the 26th Knesset by the deadline for submitting candidate lists.	63
In the next Knesset elections, at least two parties currently represented in the Knesset will run and fail to pass the electoral threshold.	60
The voting percentage of Haredi Jews will be higher than that of non-Haredi Jews in the Israeli elections on October 27, 2026.	59
Naftali Bennett will be sworn in as the next Prime Minister of Israel.	58
Am Yisrael will not pass the electoral threshold in the next general elections for the Knesset by December 31, 2026.	57
Benjamin Netanyahu will be the Prime Minister of Israel on December 31, 2026.	56
Yoav Segalovitz will be a candidate on the Ra'am party list in the next Knesset elections.	55
The next Israeli government will not include any Arab ministers by December 31, 2026.	55
Benjamin Netanyahu will win the 2026 Israeli general election and be appointed Prime Minister.	55
Likud will win the next general election in Israel held by December 31, 2026.	54
Benny Gantz's party will run in the 2026 elections without an electoral alliance with another party until the deadline for submitting lists to the Central Elections Committee.	53
The Blue and White party, led by Benny Gantz, will announce by the end of August 2026 that it will not run in the next elections as an independent party.	53
A single large political list will not be formed, including at least four of the following six politicians: Benny Gantz, Yoaz Hendel, Hili Tropper, Ayelet Shaked, Yuli Edelstein, and Gilaad Erdan, by the final deadline for submitting candidate lists for the next general elections in Israel, expected to take place by December 31, 2026.	52
Itamar Ben-Gvir will not reserve a spot for Hanoch Milwidsky on the Otzma Yehudit party list for the next general elections in Israel.	51
Benjamin Netanyahu will form the next government in Israel by December 31, 2026.	51
By August 18, 2026, the Yeshar Party will lead Likud in at least two different national mandate polls, and in at least one of these polls, the lead will be two mandates or more.	49
Yoaz Hendel will run in the 26th Knesset elections as part of a party he leads or founded, and will not join another existing list.	48
Gadi Eisenkot will be Prime Minister of Israel after the elections held on October 27, 2026, possibly as part of a rotation agreement.	47
Benjamin Netanyahu will be appointed Prime Minister of Israel following the next general election, by December 31, 2026.	44
Likud will secure more than 33 seats in the next Israeli Knesset election by December 31, 2026.	37
The next Prime Minister of Israel (after the October 27, 2026 Knesset elections) will serve for less than a full four-year term.	37
Itamar Ben-Gvir will not reserve a spot for Idit Silman on the Otzma Yehudit party list by December 31, 2026.	16

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