DaatanElections 2026
עברית/EN
A running track record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: OpenExpected resolution date: Nov 5, 2026Last updated: Oct 5, 2026

In the next Knesset elections, at least two parties currently represented in the Knesset will run and fail to pass the electoral threshold.

What is the probability that In the next Knesset elections, at least two parties currently represented in the Knesset will run and fail to pass the electoral threshold? As of Oct 5, 2026: the evidence estimate is 63%; the tracked-source panel average is 58%.

Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists

View on Daatan
Evidence estimate
63%

Who called it — by source

Panel average: 58%
Source / PersonConfidenceConfidence Over TimeBrier / Track Record
Ben Caspit
Person
53
0.29 · Poor (11)
Nadav Eyal
Person
67
as of Jul 17, 2026
0.32 · Poor (3)
Tal Shalev
Person
60
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.5 · Poor (1)
Guy Bechor
Person
63
as of Sep 5, 2026
0.3 · Poor (4)
Jerusalem Post
Outlet
69
0.2 · Fair (10)
Ynet
Outlet
67
0.13 · Good (11)
Walla
Outlet
64
0.16 · Good (11)
Ynetnews
Outlet
63
as of Sep 5, 2026
0.14 · Good (7)
Srugim
Outlet
60
0.26 · Poor (10)
Maariv
Outlet
59
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.15 · Good (9)
Al Jazeera
Outlet
57
0.14 · Good (8)
Israel National News
Outlet
56
as of Aug 28, 2026
0.34 · Poor (7)
Middle East Eye
Outlet
53
0.22 · Fair (4)
Le Monde
Outlet
42
—
Globes correspondent
Other source
84
—
כיכר השבת; חנני ברייטקופף
Other source
83
0.23 · Fair (2)
כיכר השבת; משה בשן
Other source
83
0.17 · Good (2)
Ikrame Kouachi
Other source
67
—
Mohammad Sio
Other source
67
—
Abdel Raouf Arnaout; Lina Altawell
Other source
66
—
HaPargod
Other source
65
0.15 · Good (2)
כיכר השבת
Other source
65
0.17 · Good (1)
tehrantimes.com
Other source
61
—
כיכר השבת; יוני גבאי
Other source
57
0.3 · Poor (6)
כיכר השבת; אריה רוזן
Other source
55
—
כיכר השבת; דוד הכהן
Other source
52
—
Marianna Belenkaya
Other source
50
as of Sep 5, 2026
0.34 · Poor (4)
Bettina Meier
Other source
46
—
Abdel Ra'ouf Arnaout; Serdar Dincel
Other source
37
—
כיכר השבת; ישי כהן
Other source
37
0.09 · Excellent (2)
Zein Khalil; Serdar Dincel
Other source
33
as of Aug 27, 2026
0.72 · Poor (2)
כיכר השבת; קובי ישראל
Other source
30
0.16 · Good (2)

The articles behind this

186 articles

Every article the Oracul read on this forecast, newest first. A piece re-read across several snapshots counts once.

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