DaatanElections 2026
עברית/EN
A running track record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: OpenExpected resolution date: Jan 1, 2027Last updated: Oct 5, 2026

Benjamin Netanyahu will be the Prime Minister of Israel on December 31, 2026.

What is the probability that Benjamin Netanyahu will be the Prime Minister of Israel on December 31, 2026? As of Oct 5, 2026: the evidence estimate is 50%; the tracked-source panel average is 56%.

Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists

View on Daatan
Evidence estimate
50%
Polymarket61%

Who called it — by source

Panel average: 56%
Source / PersonConfidenceConfidence Over TimeBrier / Track Record
Amit Segal
Person
56
0.3 · Poor (6)
Ben Caspit
Person
48
as of Sep 5, 2026
0.29 · Poor (11)
Nadav Eyal
Person
15
as of Jul 15, 2026
0.32 · Poor (3)
Tal Shalev
Person
37
0.5 · Poor (1)
Anna Barsky
Person
34
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.1 · Good (3)
Hananya Naftali
Person
68
—
JNS
Outlet
72
—
Walla
Outlet
62
0.16 · Good (11)
Israel National News
Outlet
60
as of Aug 28, 2026
0.34 · Poor (7)
Middle East Eye
Outlet
58
as of Sep 3, 2026
0.22 · Fair (4)
Maariv
Outlet
56
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.15 · Good (9)
Srugim
Outlet
56
0.26 · Poor (10)
Jerusalem Post
Outlet
53
0.2 · Fair (10)
Ynet
Outlet
52
0.13 · Good (11)
Le Monde
Outlet
52
as of Sep 2, 2026
—
Al Jazeera
Outlet
47
0.14 · Good (8)
Ynetnews
Outlet
42
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.14 · Good (7)
BBC News
Outlet
42
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
Ayush Pandey
Other source
86
—
כיכר השבת
Other source
83
0.17 · Good (1)
Nils A Haug
Other source
80
—
Gregory WALTON Sep
Other source
78
—
Dov Lieber
Other source
78
—
Prisha Patnaik
Other source
70
as of Aug 26, 2026
—
Jul
Other source
65
as of Jul 24, 2026
—
David E Rosenberg
Other source
65
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
Kirill Semenov
Other source
65
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
HaPargod
Other source
65
0.15 · Good (2)
Vivek Dubey
Other source
65
—
Mohammad Sio
Other source
63
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
Bettina Meier
Other source
62
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
iranherald.com
Other source
61
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
Ashleigh Fields
Other source
60
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
Ali Rogin; Dan Sagalyn; Zeba Warsi
Other source
60
—
Yinon Magal
Other source
60
0.07 · Excellent (2)
Lisa Hornung
Other source
59
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
Reuters
Other source
57
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
«Ազատություն» Ռ; Կ
Other source
56
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.25 · Poor (1)
Emma Graham-Harrison
Other source
55
as of Aug 24, 2026
0 · Excellent (1)
כיכר השבת; ישי כהן
Other source
55
0.09 · Excellent (2)
Meduza
Other source
54
0.41 · Poor (1)
כיכר השבת; דוד הכהן
Other source
52
—
Abdel Raouf Arnaout; Mohammad Sio
Other source
50
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
pbs.org
Other source
48
as of Jul 27, 2026
—
al-monitor.com
Other source
44
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.28 · Poor (2)
ליאור קינן
Other source
44
as of Sep 3, 2026
—
en.globes.co.il
Other source
43
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.72 · Poor (1)
Shaun TANDON Aug 9
Other source
40
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
Aaron David Miller; Daniel C Kurtzer
Other source
40
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
Anadolu staff
Other source
40
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
Subhadra Srivastava
Other source
37
—
Andrew Roth
Other source
35
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
tehrantimes.com
Other source
35
—
Maayan Lubell Jul
Other source
35
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.14 · Good (1)
TOI World Desk
Other source
33
as of Aug 24, 2026
0 · Excellent (1)
Lorenzo Tondo; Quique Kierszenbaum; Ana Lucía González Paz
Other source
33
—
כיכר השבת; משה בשן
Other source
32
0.17 · Good (2)
Marianna Belenkaya
Other source
29
as of Jul 29, 2026
0.34 · Poor (4)
Said Amori; Tarek Chouiref
Other source
28
—
Zein Khalil; Mohammad Sio
Other source
28
—
Douglas E. Schoen and Saul Mangel, opinion contributors
Other source
26
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
כיכר השבת; יוני גבאי
Other source
26
as of Aug 29, 2026
0.3 · Poor (6)
Jason Burke
Other source
25
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
Zein Khalil; Serdar Dincel
Other source
20
as of Aug 27, 2026
0.72 · Poor (2)
Rina Bassist
Other source
17
as of Aug 27, 2026
—
Khaled Yousef; Ikram Kouachi
Other source
17
—
Peter Beaumont
Other source
11
—
Or-ly Barlev
Other source
11
—
Daniel Amram
Other source
10
—
middleeaststar.com
Other source
0
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
Main disagreement

High confidence — Hananya Naftali, JNS.Low confidence — Tal Shalev.

The articles behind this

314 articles

Every article the Oracul read on this forecast, newest first. A piece re-read across several snapshots counts once.

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