A running track record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: Resolved — Came trueExpected resolution date: Sep 12, 2026Last updated: Sep 10, 2026
Benny Gantz's party will run in the 2026 elections without an electoral alliance with another party until the deadline for submitting lists to the Central Elections Committee.
Did it come true: Benny Gantz's party will run in the 2026 elections without an electoral alliance with another party until the deadline for submitting lists to the Central Elections Committee? Resolved: yes — it came true.
Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists
Final estimate
64%
Came trueResolved Sep 16, 2026
The Oracul's final estimate before resolution was 64%.Hedged
Best call
- Maariv76%Brier 0.06 · 1 article
Biggest miss
- Tal Shalev29%Brier 0.50 · 2 articles
Who was right — scored
Panel average: 46%HedgedRanked by Brier score on this forecast alone: the squared gap between a source's last recorded confidence and what actually happened. 0 is a perfect call, 0.25 is a coin flip.
| Rank | Source / Person | Final call | Verdict · Brier | Confidence Over Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maariv Outlet | 76 1 article | Called it0.06 | |
| 2 | Bloomberg Outlet | 54 1 article | Hedged0.21 | |
| 3 | Srugim Outlet | 53 11 articles | Hedged0.22 | |
| 4 | Walla Outlet | 52 7 articles | Hedged0.23 | |
| 5 | Amit Segal Person | 50 1 article | Hedged0.25 | |
| 6 | Al Jazeera Outlet | 48 1 article | Hedged0.27 | |
| 7 | Ynetnews Outlet | 46 1 article | Hedged0.29 | |
| 8 | Ben Caspit Person | 41 8 articles | Hedged0.35 | |
| 9 | Ynet Outlet | 40 9 articles | Missed0.36 | |
| 10 | Jerusalem Post Outlet | 30 4 articles | Missed0.49 | |
| 11 | Tal Shalev Person | 29 2 articles | Missed0.50 |
The verdict
Got it right — Maariv.Got it wrong — Ynet, Jerusalem Post, Tal Shalev.Hedged — Bloomberg, Srugim, Walla, Amit Segal, Al Jazeera, Ynetnews, Ben Caspit.
The articles behind this
44 articlesEvery article the Oracul read on this forecast, newest first. A piece re-read across several snapshots counts once.
- SrugimSep 10, 2026, 02:14 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimSep 10, 2026, 12:08 PMsrugim.co.il
- Amit SegalSep 7, 2026, 11:09 PMt.me
- SrugimSep 7, 2026, 07:46 PMsrugim.co.il
- WallaSep 7, 2026, 01:16 PMnews.walla.co.il
- SrugimSep 7, 2026, 07:08 AMsrugim.co.il
- WallaSep 7, 2026, 12:58 AMnews.walla.co.il
- Ben CaspitSep 5, 2026, 04:39 PMt.me
- Ben CaspitSep 5, 2026, 04:39 PMt.me
- YnetSep 4, 2026, 02:23 PMynet.co.il
- Jerusalem PostSep 2, 2026, 08:52 PMjpost.com
- SrugimAug 30, 2026, 04:18 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 30, 2026, 08:46 AMsrugim.co.il
- WallaAug 28, 2026, 03:04 PMnews.walla.co.il
- SrugimAug 28, 2026, 12:17 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 28, 2026, 08:51 AMsrugim.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 28, 2026, 06:45 AMjpost.com
- SrugimAug 27, 2026, 06:45 PMsrugim.co.il
- WallaAug 27, 2026, 04:13 PMnews.walla.co.il
- YnetAug 26, 2026, 06:54 PMynet.co.il
Show all 44 articles
- SrugimAug 25, 2026, 05:17 PMsrugim.co.il
- MaarivAug 23, 2026, 08:35 PMmaariv.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 20, 2026, 09:27 PMjpost.com
- SrugimAug 13, 2026, 09:23 PMsrugim.co.il
- YnetAug 13, 2026, 02:16 PMynet.co.il
- Ben CaspitAug 12, 2026, 04:08 PMt.me
- Ben CaspitAug 10, 2026, 04:46 PMt.me
- Ben CaspitAug 10, 2026, 04:28 PMt.me
- YnetnewsAug 6, 2026, 11:39 PMynetnews.com
- Ben CaspitAug 6, 2026, 11:17 PMt.me
- Ben CaspitAug 6, 2026, 08:21 PMt.me
- YnetAug 6, 2026, 03:35 AMynet.co.il
- Ben CaspitAug 5, 2026, 08:34 PMt.me
- WallaJul 29, 2026, 01:31 PMnews.walla.co.il
- YnetJul 27, 2026, 03:00 PMynet.co.il
- Tal Shalev · WallaJul 17, 2026, 11:05 AMnews.walla.co.il
- Tal Shalev · WallaJul 17, 2026, 10:22 AMnews.walla.co.il
- Jerusalem PostJul 15, 2026, 12:28 AMjpost.com
- YnetJul 14, 2026, 11:01 PMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 14, 2026, 08:35 PMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 14, 2026, 07:14 PMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 14, 2026, 04:35 PMynet.co.il
- Al JazeeraJul 1, 2026, 11:51 PMaljazeera.com
- BloombergJul 1, 2026, 11:51 PMbloomberg.com
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