A running record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: OpenExpected resolution date: Sep 12, 2026Last updated: Aug 20, 2026
Benny Gantz's party will run in the 2026 elections without an electoral alliance with another party until the deadline for submitting lists to the Central Elections Committee.
What is the probability that Benny Gantz's party will run in the 2026 elections without an electoral alliance with another party until the deadline for submitting lists to the Central Elections Committee? As of Aug 20, 2026: the AI estimate is 34%; the tracked-source panel average is 40%.
Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists
AI estimate
34%
Who called it — by source
Panel average: 40%| Source / Person | Confidence | Confidence Over Time | Brier / Track Record |
|---|---|---|---|
Amit Segal Person | — | — | — |
Ben Caspit Person | 38 | Aug 5, 2026, 08:34 PM Aug 6, 2026, 08:21 PM Aug 6, 2026, 11:17 PM Aug 10, 2026, 04:28 PM Aug 10, 2026, 04:46 PM Aug 12, 2026, 04:08 PM | 0.42 · Poor (1) |
Nadav Eyal Person | — | — | — |
Tal Shalev Person | 73 as of Jul 17, 2026 | Jul 17, 2026, 10:22 AM Jul 17, 2026, 11:05 AM | — |
Anna Barsky Person | — | — | — |
Edy Cohen Person | — | — | — |
Guy Bechor Person | — | — | — |
Hananya Naftali Person | — | — | — |
Khaled Abu Toameh Person | — | — | — |
Nasser Al-Lahham Person | — | — | — |
Walla Outlet | 77 | Jul 17, 2026, 10:22 AM Jul 17, 2026, 11:05 AM Jul 29, 2026, 01:31 PM | 0.03 · Excellent (1) |
Bloomberg Outlet | 54 as of Jul 1, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026, 11:51 PM | — |
Al Jazeera Outlet | 48 as of Jul 1, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026, 11:51 PM | 0.17 · Good (1) |
Ynetnews Outlet | 46 | Aug 6, 2026, 11:39 PM | 0.06 · Excellent (1) |
Ynet Outlet | 28 | Jul 14, 2026, 04:35 PM Jul 14, 2026, 07:14 PM Jul 14, 2026, 08:35 PM Jul 14, 2026, 11:01 PM Jul 27, 2026, 03:00 PM Aug 6, 2026, 03:35 AM Aug 13, 2026, 02:16 PM | 0.11 · Good (1) |
Jerusalem Post Outlet | 27 | 0.05 · Excellent (1) | |
Srugim Outlet | 25 | Aug 13, 2026, 09:23 PM | — |
Main disagreement
High confidence — Walla.Low confidence — Ben Caspit, Ynet, Jerusalem Post, Srugim.
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