A running track record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: OpenExpected resolution date: Jan 1, 2027Last updated: Oct 5, 2026
Benjamin Netanyahu will be appointed Prime Minister of Israel following the next general election, by December 31, 2026.
What is the probability that Benjamin Netanyahu will be appointed Prime Minister of Israel following the next general election, by December 31, 2026? As of Oct 5, 2026: the evidence estimate is 45%; the tracked-source panel average is 48%.
Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists
Evidence estimate
45%
Who called it — by source
Panel average: 48%The articles behind this
204 articlesEvery article the Oracul read on this forecast, newest first. A piece re-read across several snapshots counts once.
- Jerusalem PostOct 5, 2026, 09:36 PMjpost.com
- Al JazeeraOct 5, 2026, 08:22 PMaljazeera.com
- Amit SegalOct 5, 2026, 01:58 AMt.me
- SrugimOct 4, 2026, 01:57 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimOct 4, 2026, 10:42 AMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimOct 4, 2026, 09:09 AMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimOct 2, 2026, 04:16 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimOct 1, 2026, 09:27 AMsrugim.co.il
- Jerusalem PostSep 30, 2026, 04:43 PMjpost.com
- Khaled Yousef; Ikram KouachiSep 27, 2026, 08:21 PMaa.com.tr
- Ayush PandeySep 25, 2026, 12:32 AMtimesofindia.indiatimes.com
- Jerusalem PostSep 24, 2026, 08:05 PMjpost.com
- Al JazeeraSep 24, 2026, 12:04 PMaljazeera.com
- Al JazeeraSep 24, 2026, 10:32 AMaljazeera.com
- Gregory WALTON SepSep 24, 2026, 04:32 AMal-monitor.com
- Shira Efron; Opinion ContributorSep 22, 2026, 06:46 PMthehill.com
- YnetSep 22, 2026, 01:50 AMynet.co.il
- SrugimSep 21, 2026, 04:19 PMsrugim.co.il
- HaPargodSep 19, 2026, 12:04 PMt.me
- Jerusalem PostSep 18, 2026, 02:52 AMjpost.com
Show all 204 articles
- YnetSep 16, 2026, 08:20 PMynet.co.il
- Tarek Chouiref; Khaled YousefSep 16, 2026, 02:41 AMaa.com.tr
- Amit SegalSep 15, 2026, 02:09 PMnewsletter.amitsegal.net
- Jerusalem PostSep 14, 2026, 04:19 PMjpost.com
- YnetSep 14, 2026, 04:19 PMynet.co.il
- YnetSep 14, 2026, 12:47 AMynet.co.il
- YnetSep 13, 2026, 03:14 PMynet.co.il
- SrugimSep 10, 2026, 07:59 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimSep 10, 2026, 10:46 AMsrugim.co.il
- Or-ly BarlevSep 10, 2026, 07:18 AMt.me
- MeduzaSep 9, 2026, 01:25 PMmeduza.io
- Julia Ley; ARD-Studio Tel AvivSep 8, 2026, 10:56 PMtagesschau.de
- Al JazeeraSep 8, 2026, 09:03 PMaljazeera.net
- YnetSep 8, 2026, 07:43 PMynet.co.il
- Le MondeSep 8, 2026, 01:50 PMlemonde.fr
- SrugimSep 7, 2026, 04:10 PMsrugim.co.il
- tehrantimes.comSep 7, 2026, 04:10 PMtehrantimes.com
- Nadav Eyal · YnetSep 7, 2026, 04:10 PMynet.co.il
- כיכר השבתSep 6, 2026, 06:31 PMkikar.co.il
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- «Ազատություն» Ռ; ԿSep 5, 2026, 04:14 PMazatutyun.am
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- Middle East EyeSep 3, 2026, 09:26 AMmiddleeasteye.net
- SrugimSep 2, 2026, 09:13 PMsrugim.co.il
- כיכר השבת; יוני גבאיAug 29, 2026, 07:09 PMkikar.co.il
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- Al JazeeraAug 28, 2026, 02:49 AMaljazeera.net
- YnetAug 28, 2026, 12:25 AMynet.co.il
- Israel National NewsAug 28, 2026, 12:04 AMisraelnationalnews.com
- SrugimAug 27, 2026, 10:15 PMsrugim.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 27, 2026, 09:57 PMjpost.com
- Jerusalem PostAug 27, 2026, 09:40 PMjpost.com
- SrugimAug 27, 2026, 08:21 PMsrugim.co.il
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- WallaAug 27, 2026, 07:01 PMnews.walla.co.il
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- SrugimAug 27, 2026, 07:29 AMsrugim.co.il
- Zein Khalil; Serdar DincelAug 27, 2026, 05:41 AMaa.com.tr
- Le MondeAug 26, 2026, 04:57 PMlemonde.fr
- iranherald.comAug 24, 2026, 10:44 AMiranherald.com
- MaarivAug 24, 2026, 10:44 AMmaariv.co.il
- YnetAug 24, 2026, 01:29 AMynet.co.il
- Al JazeeraAug 20, 2026, 08:05 PMaljazeera.net
- Jerusalem PostAug 20, 2026, 04:47 PMjpost.com
- middleeaststar.comAug 20, 2026, 02:29 PMmiddleeaststar.com
- MaarivAug 19, 2026, 09:26 PMmaariv.co.il
- Aaron David Miller; Daniel C KurtzerAug 19, 2026, 09:08 PMforeignpolicy.com
- YnetAug 19, 2026, 12:42 AMynet.co.il
- MaarivAug 18, 2026, 06:44 PMmaariv.co.il
- Amit SegalAug 18, 2026, 02:59 PMnewsletter.amitsegal.net
- Le MondeAug 18, 2026, 02:43 PMlemonde.fr
- WallaAug 18, 2026, 01:06 PMnews.walla.co.il
- Guy BechorAug 16, 2026, 09:10 AMt.me
- YnetAug 16, 2026, 09:10 AMynet.co.il
- YnetAug 16, 2026, 09:10 AMynet.co.il
- YnetAug 16, 2026, 09:10 AMynet.co.il
- TOI World DeskAug 16, 2026, 07:27 AMtimesofindia.indiatimes.com
- SrugimAug 13, 2026, 03:57 PMsrugim.co.il
- YnetAug 12, 2026, 11:08 PMynet.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 12, 2026, 09:53 PMjpost.com
- SrugimAug 12, 2026, 07:08 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 12, 2026, 06:12 PMsrugim.co.il
- Ben CaspitAug 12, 2026, 10:34 AMt.me
- MaarivAug 12, 2026, 06:13 AMmaariv.co.il
- YnetnewsAug 12, 2026, 03:25 AMynetnews.com
- Jerusalem PostAug 11, 2026, 09:09 PMjpost.com
- SrugimAug 11, 2026, 06:15 PMsrugim.co.il
- Al JazeeraAug 11, 2026, 03:07 PMaljazeera.net
- MaarivAug 11, 2026, 12:34 PMmaariv.co.il
- YnetAug 11, 2026, 09:13 AMynet.co.il
- YnetAug 10, 2026, 11:46 PMynet.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 10, 2026, 10:02 PMjpost.com
- YnetAug 10, 2026, 07:53 PMynet.co.il
- YnetAug 10, 2026, 01:15 PMynet.co.il
- Hananya NaftaliAug 10, 2026, 11:18 AMhnaftali.com
- Ben CaspitAug 10, 2026, 11:18 AMt.me
- Al JazeeraAug 9, 2026, 06:33 PMaljazeera.com
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- SrugimAug 8, 2026, 11:48 AMsrugim.co.il
- Nadav Eyal · YnetAug 8, 2026, 08:30 AMynet.co.il
- YnetAug 8, 2026, 06:04 AMynet.co.il
- YnetAug 8, 2026, 03:54 AMynet.co.il
- YnetAug 8, 2026, 03:21 AMynet.co.il
- YnetAug 7, 2026, 04:38 PMynet.co.il
- Guy BechorAug 7, 2026, 02:33 PMt.me
- David E RosenbergAug 6, 2026, 10:45 PMforeignpolicy.com
- Amit SegalAug 6, 2026, 04:04 PMnewsletter.amitsegal.net
- YnetAug 5, 2026, 06:43 PMynet.co.il
- YnetAug 4, 2026, 09:25 AMynet.co.il
- YnetAug 4, 2026, 06:59 AMynet.co.il
- Al JazeeraAug 3, 2026, 09:47 PMaljazeera.com
- Jerusalem PostAug 3, 2026, 06:13 AMjpost.com
- YnetAug 3, 2026, 12:20 AMynet.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 2, 2026, 08:04 PMjpost.com
- YnetAug 2, 2026, 05:46 PMynet.co.il
- WallaAug 2, 2026, 02:12 PMnews.walla.co.il
- YnetJul 30, 2026, 12:38 AMynet.co.il
- BBC NewsJul 29, 2026, 03:14 PMbbc.com
- al-monitor.com · Maayan Lubell JulJul 29, 2026, 12:09 PMal-monitor.com
- YnetJul 29, 2026, 07:15 AMynet.co.il
- Middle East EyeJul 29, 2026, 12:41 AMmiddleeasteye.net
- Jerusalem PostJul 28, 2026, 04:43 PMjpost.com
- Alexandra SharpJul 28, 2026, 08:05 AMforeignpolicy.com
- YnetJul 28, 2026, 07:38 AMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 28, 2026, 06:58 AMynet.co.il
- Joe FisherJul 27, 2026, 07:31 PMupi.com
- YnetJul 27, 2026, 02:20 PMynet.co.il
- Ben CaspitJul 27, 2026, 11:58 AMt.me
- Al JazeeraJul 26, 2026, 11:54 AMaljazeera.net
- WallaJul 26, 2026, 08:29 AMnews.walla.co.il
- WallaJul 23, 2026, 10:12 AMnews.walla.co.il
- Jerusalem PostJul 23, 2026, 09:15 AMjpost.com
- Jerusalem PostJul 22, 2026, 08:30 PMjpost.com
- pbs.orgJul 21, 2026, 02:10 AMpbs.org
- Al JazeeraJul 20, 2026, 01:00 PMaljazeera.net
- Al JazeeraJul 19, 2026, 11:50 PMaljazeera.net
- Ben CaspitJul 19, 2026, 04:50 PMt.me
- YnetJul 19, 2026, 10:23 AMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 19, 2026, 04:11 AMynet.co.il
- Hananya NaftaliJul 18, 2026, 02:59 AMt.me
- Al JazeeraJul 17, 2026, 01:08 PMaljazeera.com
- YnetJul 16, 2026, 10:26 PMynet.co.il
- Jerusalem PostJul 16, 2026, 09:33 PMjpost.com
- YnetJul 16, 2026, 06:50 PMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 16, 2026, 02:55 PMynet.co.il
- Al JazeeraJul 16, 2026, 12:26 PMaljazeera.com
- Jerusalem PostJul 16, 2026, 10:53 AMjpost.com
- YnetJul 16, 2026, 09:58 AMynet.co.il
- Jerusalem PostJul 16, 2026, 08:59 AMjpost.com
- YnetJul 16, 2026, 08:09 AMynet.co.il
- Douglas E. Schoen and Saul Mangel, opinion contributorsJul 16, 2026, 07:19 AMthehill.com
- BBC NewsJul 16, 2026, 06:41 AMbbc.com
- YnetJul 16, 2026, 02:53 AMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 16, 2026, 12:35 AMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 16, 2026, 12:13 AMynet.co.il
- Jerusalem PostJul 15, 2026, 11:43 PMjpost.com
- Israel National NewsJul 15, 2026, 10:18 PMisraelnationalnews.com
- Al JazeeraJul 15, 2026, 06:11 PMaljazeera.net
- tehrantimes.comJul 15, 2026, 05:33 PMtehrantimes.com
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 03:32 PMynet.co.il
- al-monitor.comJul 15, 2026, 03:13 PMal-monitor.com
- Al JazeeraJul 15, 2026, 02:45 PMaljazeera.net
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 01:34 PMynet.co.il
- Al JazeeraJul 15, 2026, 12:42 PMaljazeera.net
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 10:20 AMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 09:06 AMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 08:38 AMynet.co.il
- Jerusalem PostJul 15, 2026, 07:42 AMjpost.com
- Middle East EyeJul 15, 2026, 06:55 AMmiddleeasteye.net
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 05:29 AMynet.co.il
- Andrew RothJul 15, 2026, 04:13 AMtheguardian.com
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 03:51 AMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 01:18 AMynet.co.il
- Nadav Eyal · YnetJul 15, 2026, 12:53 AMynet.co.il
- WallaJul 15, 2026, 12:08 AMnews.walla.co.il
- YnetJul 14, 2026, 11:43 PMynet.co.il
- Israel National NewsJul 14, 2026, 10:36 PMisraelnationalnews.com
- Tal Shalev · WallaJul 14, 2026, 08:15 PMnews.walla.co.il
- Ben Caspit · Jerusalem PostJul 14, 2026, 07:17 PMjpost.com
- Al JazeeraJul 14, 2026, 05:44 PMaljazeera.net
- tehrantimes.comJul 14, 2026, 05:27 PMtehrantimes.com
- Le MondeJul 14, 2026, 03:56 PMlemonde.fr
- YnetJul 14, 2026, 03:13 PMynet.co.il
- Middle East EyeJul 14, 2026, 01:10 PMmiddleeasteye.net
- Nadav Eyal · YnetJul 14, 2026, 12:06 PMynet.co.il
- Emma Graham-HarrisonJul 13, 2026, 09:27 PMtheguardian.com
- Jerusalem PostJul 13, 2026, 09:17 PMjpost.com
- Al JazeeraJul 13, 2026, 12:53 AMaljazeera.com
- Al JazeeraJul 13, 2026, 12:53 AMaljazeera.net
- al-monitor.comJul 12, 2026, 09:49 PMal-monitor.com
- al-monitor.comJul 12, 2026, 08:38 PMal-monitor.com
- YnetJul 11, 2026, 10:12 PMynet.co.il
- Al JazeeraJul 10, 2026, 02:33 AMaljazeera.net
- YnetJul 10, 2026, 02:33 AMynet.co.il
- Israel National NewsJul 9, 2026, 02:00 PMisraelnationalnews.com
- Jerusalem PostJul 7, 2026, 08:10 PMjpost.com
- Jerusalem PostJul 3, 2026, 02:14 PMjpost.com
- Al JazeeraJun 27, 2026, 02:04 PMaljazeera.com
- Middle East EyeJun 24, 2026, 01:50 PMmiddleeasteye.net
- Al JazeeraJun 13, 2026, 10:59 AMaljazeera.com
- Al JazeeraJun 13, 2026, 09:49 AMaljazeera.com
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