DaatanElections 2026
עברית/EN
A running track record of political judgmentPerson
Person

Ben Caspit

About

Israeli journalist; political commentator and senior reporter for Maariv, and a radio host on 103FM.

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How accurate has Ben Caspit been on 2026 election calls? We track every prediction they make and score it once the outcome is known.

Forecasts covered
23 / 27
Articles cited
68
Brier / Track Record
0.29
Poor (11)
Last seen
Oct 4, 2026
ForecastConfidenceConfidence Over Time
By August 18, 2026, the Yeshar Party will lead Likud in at least two different national mandate polls, and in at least one of these polls, the lead will be two mandates or more.
81
Itamar Ben-Gvir will not reserve a spot for Hanoch Milwidsky on the Otzma Yehudit party list for the next general elections in Israel.
80
Yoav Segalovitz will be a candidate on the Ra'am party list in the next Knesset elections.
79
The Israeli parliament will be dissolved by July 15, 2026.
65
At least one party will announce its withdrawal from the race for the 26th Knesset by the deadline for submitting candidate lists.
62
The first government sworn in after the next Knesset elections will include at least one party from the current opposition and one party from the current coalition.
61
The Blue and White party, led by Benny Gantz, will announce by the end of August 2026 that it will not run in the next elections as an independent party.
60
At least two Arab parties will run in the 2026 elections as a joint list.
60
The next Israeli government will not include any Arab ministers by December 31, 2026.
58
In the next Knesset elections, no single party will receive more than 25 seats.
58
Benjamin Netanyahu will be appointed Prime Minister of Israel following the next general election, by December 31, 2026.
55
A single large political list will not be formed, including at least four of the following six politicians: Benny Gantz, Yoaz Hendel, Hili Tropper, Ayelet Shaked, Yuli Edelstein, and Gilaad Erdan, by the final deadline for submitting candidate lists for the next general elections in Israel, expected to take place by December 31, 2026.
54
In the next Knesset elections, at least two parties currently represented in the Knesset will run and fail to pass the electoral threshold.
53
Likud will secure more than 33 seats in the next Israeli Knesset election by December 31, 2026.
52
A law mandating Haredi enlistment into the Israel Defense Forces will be passed by the Knesset by December 31, 2030.
52
Benjamin Netanyahu will be the Prime Minister of Israel on December 31, 2026.
48
Gadi Eisenkot will be Prime Minister of Israel after the elections held on October 27, 2026, possibly as part of a rotation agreement.
47
Benjamin Netanyahu will form the next government in Israel by December 31, 2026.
46
Likud will win the next general election in Israel held by December 31, 2026.
45
Benjamin Netanyahu will win the 2026 Israeli general election and be appointed Prime Minister.
45
Benny Gantz's party will run in the 2026 elections without an electoral alliance with another party until the deadline for submitting lists to the Central Elections Committee.
41
Yoaz Hendel will run in the 26th Knesset elections as part of a party he leads or founded, and will not join another existing list.
35
Itamar Ben-Gvir will not reserve a spot for Idit Silman on the Otzma Yehudit party list by December 31, 2026.
0

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