A running track record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: Resolved — Came trueExpected resolution date: Sep 8, 2026Last updated: Sep 7, 2026
Yoav Segalovitz will be a candidate on the Ra'am party list in the next Knesset elections.
Did it come true: Yoav Segalovitz will be a candidate on the Ra'am party list in the next Knesset elections? Resolved: yes — it came true.
Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists
Final estimate
86%
Came trueResolved Sep 16, 2026
The Oracul's final estimate before resolution was 86%.Called it
Best call
- Anna Barsky98%Brier 0.00 · 1 article
- Abdelraouf Arnaout; Mohammad Sio100%Brier 0.00 · 1 article
- כיכר השבת; ישי כהן95%Brier 0.00 · 1 article
Who was right — scored
Panel average: 75%Called itRanked by Brier score on this forecast alone: the squared gap between a source's last recorded confidence and what actually happened. 0 is a perfect call, 0.25 is a coin flip.
| Rank | Source / Person | Final call | Verdict · Brier | Confidence Over Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anna Barsky Person | 98 1 article | Called it0.00 | |
| 1 | Abdelraouf Arnaout; Mohammad Sio Other source | 100 1 article | Called it0.00 | |
| 1 | כיכר השבת; ישי כהן Other source | 95 1 article | Called it0.00 | |
| 4 | Julio Segador Other source | 92 1 article | Called it0.01 | |
| 5 | כיכר השבת; יוני גבאי Other source | 87 2 articles | Called it0.02 | |
| 6 | Amit Segal Person | 83 2 articles | Called it0.03 | |
| 6 | Maariv Outlet | 82 2 articles | Called it0.03 | |
| 8 | Ben Caspit Person | 79 2 articles | Called it0.04 | |
| 9 | Ynet Outlet | 78 7 articles | Called it0.05 | |
| 10 | Jerusalem Post Outlet | 75 9 articles | Called it0.06 | |
| 11 | Israel National News Outlet | 70 1 article | Called it0.09 | |
| 12 | Walla Outlet | 69 5 articles | Called it0.10 | |
| 13 | Al Jazeera Outlet | 66 2 articles | Called it0.12 | |
| 13 | Ynetnews Outlet | 65 1 article | Called it0.12 | |
| 13 | Marianna Belenkaya Other source | 65 1 article | Called it0.12 | |
| 16 | Srugim Outlet | 55 10 articles | Hedged0.20 |
The verdict
Got it right — Anna Barsky, Abdelraouf Arnaout; Mohammad Sio, כיכר השבת; ישי כהן, Julio Segador, כיכר השבת; יוני גבאי, Amit Segal, Maariv, Ben Caspit, Ynet, Jerusalem Post, Israel National News, Walla, Al Jazeera, Ynetnews, Marianna Belenkaya.Hedged — Srugim.
The articles behind this
47 articlesEvery article the Oracul read on this forecast, newest first. A piece re-read across several snapshots counts once.
- Jerusalem PostSep 7, 2026, 04:27 PMjpost.com
- WallaSep 7, 2026, 04:27 PMnews.walla.co.il
- כיכר השבת; ישי כהןSep 7, 2026, 02:08 PMkikar.co.il
- Amit SegalSep 6, 2026, 07:43 PMt.me
- Jerusalem PostSep 6, 2026, 06:18 PMjpost.com
- SrugimSep 6, 2026, 12:09 PMsrugim.co.il
- Al JazeeraSep 5, 2026, 11:51 AMaljazeera.com
- Anna Barsky · Jerusalem PostSep 2, 2026, 11:37 PMjpost.com
- YnetnewsSep 2, 2026, 04:46 AMynetnews.com
- Abdelraouf Arnaout; Mohammad SioSep 1, 2026, 07:20 PMaa.com.tr
- Julio SegadorSep 1, 2026, 04:05 PMtagesschau.de
- כיכר השבת; יוני גבאיSep 1, 2026, 03:14 PMkikar.co.il
- YnetSep 1, 2026, 01:41 PMynet.co.il
- Amit SegalSep 1, 2026, 06:22 AMt.me
- Jerusalem PostAug 31, 2026, 09:04 PMjpost.com
- SrugimAug 31, 2026, 08:54 PMsrugim.co.il
- YnetAug 31, 2026, 08:13 PMynet.co.il
- SrugimAug 31, 2026, 05:27 PMsrugim.co.il
- כיכר השבת; יוני גבאיAug 31, 2026, 03:05 PMkikar.co.il
- YnetAug 31, 2026, 08:13 AMynet.co.il
Show all 47 articles
- YnetAug 29, 2026, 12:03 PMynet.co.il
- SrugimAug 26, 2026, 04:11 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 26, 2026, 10:52 AMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 26, 2026, 03:37 AMsrugim.co.il
- Al JazeeraAug 25, 2026, 08:52 PMaljazeera.net
- Jerusalem PostAug 25, 2026, 08:28 PMjpost.com
- Marianna BelenkayaAug 25, 2026, 07:15 PMt.me
- SrugimAug 25, 2026, 06:58 PMsrugim.co.il
- WallaAug 25, 2026, 04:40 PMnews.walla.co.il
- SrugimAug 25, 2026, 04:03 PMsrugim.co.il
- YnetAug 25, 2026, 02:08 PMynet.co.il
- Ben CaspitAug 25, 2026, 12:04 AMt.me
- WallaAug 24, 2026, 06:57 PMnews.walla.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 24, 2026, 06:39 PMjpost.com
- MaarivAug 24, 2026, 05:21 PMmaariv.co.il
- WallaAug 24, 2026, 04:59 PMnews.walla.co.il
- SrugimAug 24, 2026, 04:37 PMsrugim.co.il
- YnetAug 24, 2026, 04:28 PMynet.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 24, 2026, 03:04 PMjpost.com
- SrugimAug 24, 2026, 03:53 AMsrugim.co.il
- WallaAug 24, 2026, 12:29 AMnews.walla.co.il
- Israel National NewsAug 23, 2026, 03:34 PMisraelnationalnews.com
- Jerusalem PostAug 23, 2026, 03:34 PMjpost.com
- Jerusalem PostAug 23, 2026, 03:34 PMjpost.com
- MaarivAug 23, 2026, 03:34 PMmaariv.co.il
- Ben CaspitAug 23, 2026, 03:34 PMt.me
- YnetAug 23, 2026, 03:34 PMynet.co.il
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