A running track record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: Resolved — Came trueExpected resolution date: Jan 1, 2027Last updated: Sep 21, 2026
Itamar Ben-Gvir will not reserve a spot for Hanoch Milwidsky on the Otzma Yehudit party list for the next general elections in Israel.
Did it come true: Itamar Ben-Gvir will not reserve a spot for Hanoch Milwidsky on the Otzma Yehudit party list for the next general elections in Israel? Resolved: yes — it came true.
Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists
Final estimate
51%
Came trueResolved Sep 27, 2026
The Oracul's final estimate before resolution was 51%.Hedged
Best call
- Ynet85%Brier 0.02 · 2 articles
Biggest miss
- Israel National News0%Brier 1.00 · 1 article
Who was right — scored
Panel average: 51%HedgedRanked by Brier score on this forecast alone: the squared gap between a source's last recorded confidence and what actually happened. 0 is a perfect call, 0.25 is a coin flip.
| Rank | Source / Person | Final call | Verdict · Brier | Confidence Over Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ynet Outlet | 85 2 articles | Called it0.02 | |
| 2 | Ben Caspit Person | 80 1 article | Called it0.04 | |
| 3 | Maariv Outlet | 70 1 article | Called it0.09 | |
| 4 | Walla Outlet | 61 4 articles | Hedged0.15 | |
| 5 | Jerusalem Post Outlet | 59 4 articles | Hedged0.17 | |
| 5 | כיכר השבת; יאיר טוקר Other source | 59 1 article | Hedged0.17 | |
| 7 | כיכר השבת; משה בשן Other source | 52 1 article | Hedged0.23 | |
| 8 | Srugim Outlet | 51 12 articles | Hedged0.24 | |
| 9 | כיכר השבת; קובי ישראל Other source | 50 1 article | Hedged0.25 | |
| 10 | כיכר השבת; יוני גבאי Other source | 33 1 article | Missed0.45 | |
| 11 | Amit Segal Person | 0 1 article | Missed1.00 | |
| 11 | Israel National News Outlet | 0 1 article | Missed1.00 |
The verdict
Got it right — Ynet, Ben Caspit, Maariv.Got it wrong — כיכר השבת; יוני גבאי, Amit Segal, Israel National News.Hedged — Walla, Jerusalem Post, כיכר השבת; יאיר טוקר, כיכר השבת; משה בשן, Srugim, כיכר השבת; קובי ישראל.
The articles behind this
30 articlesEvery article the Oracul read on this forecast, newest first. A piece re-read across several snapshots counts once.
- WallaSep 21, 2026, 04:26 PMnews.walla.co.il
- SrugimSep 14, 2026, 04:22 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimSep 14, 2026, 04:22 PMsrugim.co.il
- YnetSep 14, 2026, 04:22 PMynet.co.il
- כיכר השבת; יוני גבאיSep 7, 2026, 05:22 PMkikar.co.il
- SrugimSep 7, 2026, 01:57 PMsrugim.co.il
- כיכר השבת; משה בשןSep 6, 2026, 09:21 PMkikar.co.il
- WallaSep 6, 2026, 04:36 PMnews.walla.co.il
- כיכר השבת; יאיר טוקרSep 6, 2026, 04:05 PMkikar.co.il
- SrugimSep 6, 2026, 12:09 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimSep 3, 2026, 06:41 AMsrugim.co.il
- Jerusalem PostSep 1, 2026, 07:40 PMjpost.com
- Amit SegalSep 1, 2026, 02:02 PMt.me
- כיכר השבת; קובי ישראלAug 30, 2026, 08:46 PMkikar.co.il
- SrugimAug 28, 2026, 03:24 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 28, 2026, 12:17 PMsrugim.co.il
- YnetAug 28, 2026, 12:09 PMynet.co.il
- SrugimAug 27, 2026, 08:39 PMsrugim.co.il
- Israel National NewsAug 26, 2026, 11:02 PMisraelnationalnews.com
- SrugimAug 26, 2026, 08:40 PMsrugim.co.il
Show all 30 articles
- WallaAug 24, 2026, 01:33 PMnews.walla.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 24, 2026, 02:41 AMjpost.com
- Jerusalem PostAug 24, 2026, 02:23 AMjpost.com
- MaarivAug 22, 2026, 07:36 PMmaariv.co.il
- SrugimAug 22, 2026, 06:34 PMsrugim.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 22, 2026, 03:50 PMjpost.com
- WallaAug 22, 2026, 03:50 PMnews.walla.co.il
- SrugimAug 22, 2026, 03:50 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 22, 2026, 03:50 PMsrugim.co.il
- Ben CaspitAug 22, 2026, 03:50 PMt.me
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