A running track record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: OpenExpected resolution date: Jan 1, 2027Last updated: Oct 5, 2026
Am Yisrael will not pass the electoral threshold in the next general elections for the Knesset by December 31, 2026.
What is the probability that Am Yisrael will not pass the electoral threshold in the next general elections for the Knesset by December 31, 2026? As of Oct 5, 2026: the evidence estimate is 29%; the tracked-source panel average is 60%.
Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists
Evidence estimate
29%
Who called it — by source
Panel average: 60%| Source / Person | Confidence | Confidence Over Time | Brier / Track Record |
|---|---|---|---|
Jerusalem Post Outlet | 78 | 0.2 · Fair (10) | |
Ynetnews Outlet | 76 | 0.14 · Good (7) | |
Srugim Outlet | 57 | 0.26 · Poor (10) | |
Walla Outlet | 55 | 0.16 · Good (11) | |
Al Jazeera Outlet | 35 | 0.14 · Good (8) | |
כיכר השבת; משה בשן Other source | 65 | 0.17 · Good (2) | |
כיכר השבת; אריה רוזן Other source | 10 | — | |
כיכר השבת; משה כהן Other source | 0 | — |
Main disagreement
High confidence — Jerusalem Post, Ynetnews.Low confidence — Al Jazeera.
The articles behind this
15 articlesEvery article the Oracul read on this forecast, newest first. A piece re-read across several snapshots counts once.
- כיכר השבת; משה בשןOct 5, 2026, 09:38 AMkikar.co.il
- SrugimOct 4, 2026, 09:11 AMsrugim.co.il
- כיכר השבת; משה כהןSep 30, 2026, 07:46 PMkikar.co.il
- Al JazeeraSep 27, 2026, 08:28 PMaljazeera.net
- SrugimSep 24, 2026, 04:12 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimSep 24, 2026, 11:55 AMsrugim.co.il
- כיכר השבת; אריה רוזןSep 21, 2026, 04:12 PMkikar.co.il
- WallaSep 21, 2026, 04:12 PMnews.walla.co.il
- Jerusalem PostSep 13, 2026, 05:26 AMjpost.com
- WallaSep 11, 2026, 09:30 AMnews.walla.co.il
- SrugimSep 10, 2026, 06:08 PMsrugim.co.il
- WallaSep 9, 2026, 01:46 PMnews.walla.co.il
- SrugimSep 9, 2026, 10:22 AMsrugim.co.il
- WallaSep 9, 2026, 06:44 AMnews.walla.co.il
- YnetnewsSep 9, 2026, 06:38 AMynetnews.com
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