A running record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: OpenExpected resolution date: Jan 1, 2031Last updated: Aug 17, 2026
A law mandating Haredi enlistment into the Israel Defense Forces will be passed by the Knesset by December 31, 2030.
What is the probability that A law mandating Haredi enlistment into the Israel Defense Forces will be passed by the Knesset by December 31, 2030? As of Aug 17, 2026: the AI estimate is 45%; the tracked-source panel average is 44%.
Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists
AI estimate
45%
Who called it — by source
Panel average: 44%| Source / Person | Confidence | Confidence Over Time | Brier / Track Record |
|---|---|---|---|
Ben Caspit Person | 49 | Jul 14, 2026, 11:47 PM Jul 15, 2026, 01:09 AM Jul 20, 2026, 12:44 PM Jul 22, 2026, 06:03 PM Aug 2, 2026, 02:33 PM Aug 7, 2026, 06:04 PM Aug 16, 2026, 01:35 PM | 0.42 · Poor (1) |
Nadav Eyal Person | 28 | Aug 7, 2026, 09:44 PM | — |
Maariv Outlet | 65 | Aug 14, 2026, 12:04 AM | — |
Israel National News Outlet | 60 | Aug 2, 2026, 02:22 PM | — |
JNS Outlet | 60 as of Jun 1, 2026 | — | |
Walla Outlet | 52 | Jul 5, 2026, 05:14 PM Jul 12, 2026, 06:48 PM Jul 13, 2026, 10:06 AM Jul 14, 2026, 11:16 AM Jul 14, 2026, 03:57 PM Jul 16, 2026, 10:59 AM Jul 16, 2026, 12:54 PM Jul 21, 2026, 10:01 AM Jul 21, 2026, 09:44 PM Jul 26, 2026, 12:10 PM Jul 27, 2026, 12:43 PM Aug 2, 2026, 02:07 PM | 0.03 · Excellent (1) |
Jerusalem Post Outlet | 42 | Jul 5, 2026, 05:14 PM Jul 14, 2026, 11:40 AM Jul 14, 2026, 01:06 PM Jul 15, 2026, 02:33 AM Jul 15, 2026, 06:53 AM | 0.05 · Excellent (1) |
Ynetnews Outlet | 40 | Jul 14, 2026, 11:16 AM Jul 14, 2026, 11:40 AM Jul 14, 2026, 01:06 PM Jul 14, 2026, 02:35 PM Jul 14, 2026, 03:57 PM Jul 14, 2026, 04:48 PM Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 PM Jul 14, 2026, 10:41 PM Jul 14, 2026, 11:47 PM Jul 15, 2026, 01:09 AM Jul 15, 2026, 01:39 AM Jul 15, 2026, 02:33 AM Jul 15, 2026, 04:38 AM Jul 15, 2026, 06:22 AM Jul 15, 2026, 06:53 AM Jul 15, 2026, 08:09 AM Jul 15, 2026, 08:32 AM Jul 15, 2026, 12:46 PM Jul 15, 2026, 02:38 PM Jul 15, 2026, 04:21 PM Jul 15, 2026, 05:48 PM Jul 15, 2026, 06:37 PM Jul 15, 2026, 07:11 PM Jul 15, 2026, 08:09 PM Jul 15, 2026, 08:41 PM Jul 16, 2026, 01:07 AM Jul 16, 2026, 02:53 AM Jul 16, 2026, 04:21 AM Jul 16, 2026, 05:53 AM Jul 16, 2026, 06:16 AM Jul 16, 2026, 06:49 AM Jul 16, 2026, 07:46 AM Jul 16, 2026, 08:10 AM Jul 16, 2026, 10:59 AM Jul 16, 2026, 12:54 PM Jul 16, 2026, 02:57 PM Jul 16, 2026, 04:23 PM Jul 16, 2026, 06:39 PM Jul 16, 2026, 07:44 PM Jul 16, 2026, 09:04 PM Jul 16, 2026, 10:31 PM Jul 16, 2026, 11:28 PM Jul 17, 2026, 01:14 AM Jul 19, 2026, 05:33 PM Jul 20, 2026, 10:05 AM Jul 20, 2026, 06:46 PM Jul 21, 2026, 10:01 AM Jul 22, 2026, 06:03 PM Jul 26, 2026, 12:10 PM Aug 6, 2026, 11:42 PM | 0.06 · Excellent (1) |
Ynet Outlet | 39 | Jun 30, 2026, 07:58 PM Jul 13, 2026, 10:06 AM Jul 14, 2026, 11:16 AM Jul 14, 2026, 11:40 AM Jul 14, 2026, 01:06 PM Jul 14, 2026, 02:35 PM Jul 14, 2026, 03:57 PM Jul 14, 2026, 04:48 PM Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 PM Jul 14, 2026, 10:41 PM Jul 14, 2026, 11:47 PM Jul 15, 2026, 01:09 AM Jul 15, 2026, 01:39 AM Jul 15, 2026, 02:33 AM Jul 15, 2026, 04:38 AM Jul 15, 2026, 06:22 AM Jul 15, 2026, 06:53 AM Jul 15, 2026, 08:09 AM Jul 15, 2026, 08:32 AM Jul 15, 2026, 12:46 PM Jul 15, 2026, 02:38 PM Jul 15, 2026, 04:21 PM Jul 15, 2026, 05:48 PM Jul 15, 2026, 06:37 PM Jul 15, 2026, 07:11 PM Jul 15, 2026, 08:09 PM Jul 15, 2026, 08:41 PM Jul 16, 2026, 01:07 AM Jul 16, 2026, 02:53 AM Jul 16, 2026, 04:21 AM Jul 16, 2026, 05:53 AM Jul 16, 2026, 06:16 AM Jul 16, 2026, 06:49 AM Jul 16, 2026, 07:46 AM Jul 16, 2026, 08:10 AM Jul 16, 2026, 10:59 AM Jul 16, 2026, 12:54 PM Jul 16, 2026, 02:57 PM Jul 16, 2026, 04:23 PM Jul 16, 2026, 06:39 PM Jul 16, 2026, 07:44 PM Jul 16, 2026, 09:04 PM Jul 16, 2026, 10:31 PM Jul 16, 2026, 11:28 PM Jul 17, 2026, 12:58 AM Jul 17, 2026, 01:14 AM Jul 17, 2026, 03:40 AM Jul 17, 2026, 04:39 AM Jul 17, 2026, 07:54 AM Jul 19, 2026, 12:48 PM Aug 4, 2026, 04:48 PM Aug 7, 2026, 09:44 PM Aug 8, 2026, 07:42 AM Aug 10, 2026, 11:22 AM Aug 13, 2026, 11:19 PM | 0.11 · Good (1) |
Srugim Outlet | 35 | Aug 15, 2026, 09:57 PM | — |
Al Jazeera Outlet | 33 | Jun 14, 2026, 04:52 AM Jul 14, 2026, 04:48 PM Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 PM Jul 14, 2026, 10:41 PM Jul 14, 2026, 11:47 PM Jul 15, 2026, 01:09 AM Jul 15, 2026, 01:39 AM Jul 15, 2026, 02:33 AM Jul 15, 2026, 04:38 AM Jul 15, 2026, 06:22 AM Jul 15, 2026, 06:53 AM Jul 15, 2026, 08:09 AM Jul 15, 2026, 08:32 AM Jul 15, 2026, 12:46 PM Jul 15, 2026, 02:38 PM Jul 15, 2026, 04:21 PM Jul 15, 2026, 05:48 PM Jul 15, 2026, 06:37 PM Jul 15, 2026, 07:11 PM Jul 15, 2026, 08:09 PM Jul 15, 2026, 08:41 PM Jul 16, 2026, 01:07 AM Jul 16, 2026, 02:53 AM Jul 16, 2026, 04:21 AM Jul 16, 2026, 05:53 AM Jul 16, 2026, 06:16 AM Jul 16, 2026, 06:49 AM Jul 16, 2026, 07:46 AM Jul 16, 2026, 08:10 AM Jul 16, 2026, 10:59 AM Jul 16, 2026, 12:54 PM Jul 16, 2026, 02:57 PM Jul 16, 2026, 04:23 PM Jul 16, 2026, 06:39 PM Jul 16, 2026, 07:44 PM Jul 16, 2026, 09:04 PM Jul 16, 2026, 10:31 PM Jul 16, 2026, 11:28 PM Jul 17, 2026, 12:58 AM Jul 17, 2026, 01:14 AM Jul 17, 2026, 03:40 AM Jul 17, 2026, 04:39 AM Jul 17, 2026, 07:54 AM Jul 19, 2026, 12:48 PM Jul 19, 2026, 05:33 PM Jul 20, 2026, 10:05 AM Jul 20, 2026, 06:46 PM Jul 21, 2026, 10:01 AM Jul 21, 2026, 09:44 PM Jul 22, 2026, 06:03 PM Jul 26, 2026, 12:10 PM Jul 27, 2026, 12:43 PM Aug 11, 2026, 02:57 PM | 0.17 · Good (1) |
morungexpress.com Other source | 86 as of Jun 1, 2026 | Jun 1, 2026, 05:01 PM | — |
themedialine.org Other source | 73 as of Jun 1, 2026 | Jun 1, 2026, 05:01 PM | — |
winknews.com Other source | 70 as of Jun 1, 2026 | Jun 1, 2026, 12:22 PM | — |
eaworldview.com Other source | 61 as of Jun 1, 2026 | Jun 1, 2026, 12:22 PM | — |
Zein Khalil and Rania Abushamala Other source | 59 | Jul 12, 2026, 06:48 PM Jul 13, 2026, 10:06 AM Jul 14, 2026, 11:16 AM Jul 14, 2026, 11:40 AM Jul 14, 2026, 01:06 PM Jul 14, 2026, 03:57 PM Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 PM Jul 14, 2026, 10:41 PM Jul 14, 2026, 11:47 PM Jul 15, 2026, 01:09 AM Jul 15, 2026, 01:39 AM Jul 15, 2026, 02:33 AM Jul 15, 2026, 04:38 AM Jul 15, 2026, 06:22 AM Jul 15, 2026, 06:53 AM Jul 15, 2026, 02:38 PM Jul 15, 2026, 04:21 PM Jul 15, 2026, 05:48 PM Jul 15, 2026, 06:37 PM Jul 15, 2026, 07:11 PM Jul 15, 2026, 08:41 PM Jul 16, 2026, 02:53 AM Jul 16, 2026, 06:16 AM Jul 16, 2026, 06:49 AM Jul 16, 2026, 08:10 AM Jul 16, 2026, 02:57 PM Jul 16, 2026, 04:23 PM Jul 16, 2026, 06:39 PM Jul 16, 2026, 09:04 PM Jul 16, 2026, 10:31 PM Jul 16, 2026, 11:28 PM Jul 17, 2026, 12:58 AM Jul 17, 2026, 01:14 AM Jul 17, 2026, 03:40 AM Jul 17, 2026, 07:54 AM Jul 19, 2026, 12:48 PM Jul 19, 2026, 05:33 PM Jul 20, 2026, 10:05 AM Jul 21, 2026, 09:44 PM Jul 22, 2026, 06:03 PM Jul 26, 2026, 12:10 PM Aug 17, 2026, 05:11 PM | — |
albawaba.com Other source | 50 as of Jun 1, 2026 | Jun 1, 2026, 12:22 PM | — |
albawaba.net Other source | 48 as of Jun 1, 2026 | Jun 1, 2026, 05:01 PM | — |
MSN Other source | 43 as of Jun 4, 2026 | — | |
Julio Segador Other source | 43 as of Jul 17, 2026 | Jul 15, 2026, 08:41 PM Jul 17, 2026, 03:40 AM | — |
Abdel Raouf Arnaout; Rania Abushamala Other source | 36 | Jul 15, 2026, 06:37 PM Jul 20, 2026, 06:46 PM Jul 21, 2026, 10:01 AM Jul 21, 2026, 09:44 PM Jul 22, 2026, 06:03 PM Jul 26, 2026, 12:10 PM Jul 27, 2026, 12:43 PM Aug 17, 2026, 05:11 PM | — |
batonrougepost.com Other source | 32 as of Jun 1, 2026 | Jun 1, 2026, 12:22 PM | — |
parisguardian.com Other source | 29 as of Jun 1, 2026 | Jun 1, 2026, 05:01 PM | — |
aa.com.tr Other source | 24 | — | — |
Zein Khalil Other source | 17 | Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 PM Jul 14, 2026, 10:41 PM Jul 15, 2026, 01:39 AM Jul 15, 2026, 02:33 AM Jul 15, 2026, 04:38 AM Jul 15, 2026, 06:22 AM Jul 15, 2026, 06:53 AM Jul 15, 2026, 08:09 AM Jul 15, 2026, 08:32 AM Jul 15, 2026, 12:46 PM Jul 15, 2026, 02:38 PM Jul 15, 2026, 04:21 PM Jul 15, 2026, 05:48 PM Jul 15, 2026, 06:37 PM Jul 15, 2026, 08:09 PM Jul 15, 2026, 08:41 PM Jul 16, 2026, 01:07 AM Jul 16, 2026, 04:21 AM Jul 16, 2026, 05:53 AM Jul 16, 2026, 07:46 AM Jul 16, 2026, 10:59 AM Jul 16, 2026, 12:54 PM Jul 16, 2026, 02:57 PM Jul 16, 2026, 04:23 PM Jul 16, 2026, 06:39 PM Jul 16, 2026, 07:44 PM Jul 16, 2026, 10:31 PM Jul 16, 2026, 11:28 PM Jul 17, 2026, 12:58 AM Jul 17, 2026, 01:14 AM Jul 17, 2026, 03:40 AM Jul 17, 2026, 04:39 AM Jul 17, 2026, 07:54 AM Jul 19, 2026, 12:48 PM Jul 19, 2026, 05:33 PM Jul 20, 2026, 10:05 AM Jul 21, 2026, 09:44 PM Jul 22, 2026, 06:03 PM Jul 26, 2026, 12:10 PM Jul 27, 2026, 12:43 PM Aug 17, 2026, 05:11 PM | — |
graphic.com.gh Other source | 15 as of Jun 1, 2026 | Jun 1, 2026, 05:01 PM | — |
Main disagreement
High confidence — Maariv.Low confidence — Nadav Eyal, Ynetnews, Ynet, Al Jazeera, Srugim.
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