A running track record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: OpenExpected resolution date: Jan 1, 2031Last updated: Oct 5, 2026
A law mandating Haredi enlistment into the Israel Defense Forces will be passed by the Knesset by December 31, 2030.
What is the probability that A law mandating Haredi enlistment into the Israel Defense Forces will be passed by the Knesset by December 31, 2030? As of Oct 5, 2026: the evidence estimate is 52%; the tracked-source panel average is 55%.
Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists
Evidence estimate
52%
Who called it — by source
Panel average: 55%| Source / Person | Confidence | Confidence Over Time | Brier / Track Record |
|---|---|---|---|
Ben Caspit Person | 52 as of Sep 5, 2026 | 0.29 · Poor (11) | |
Nadav Eyal Person | 36 as of Aug 24, 2026 | 0.32 · Poor (3) | |
Maariv Outlet | 65 as of Aug 14, 2026 | 0.15 · Good (9) | |
Israel National News Outlet | 65 as of Aug 24, 2026 | 0.34 · Poor (7) | |
Srugim Outlet | 63 | 0.26 · Poor (10) | |
JNS Outlet | 60 as of Jun 1, 2026 | — | |
Walla Outlet | 52 as of Sep 2, 2026 | 0.16 · Good (11) | |
Ynet Outlet | 46 | 0.13 · Good (11) | |
Jerusalem Post Outlet | 45 as of Sep 3, 2026 | 0.2 · Fair (10) | |
Ynetnews Outlet | 39 as of Aug 24, 2026 | 0.14 · Good (7) | |
Al Jazeera Outlet | 30 as of Aug 24, 2026 | 0.14 · Good (8) | |
morungexpress.com Other source | 86 as of Jun 1, 2026 | — | |
HaDosim Other source | 83 | — | |
כיכר השבת; ישי כהן Other source | 79 | 0.09 · Excellent (2) | |
themedialine.org Other source | 73 as of Jun 1, 2026 | — | |
כיכר השבת; אסף מגידו Other source | 73 as of Sep 1, 2026 | — | |
winknews.com Other source | 70 as of Jun 1, 2026 | — | |
HaPargod Other source | 65 | 0.15 · Good (2) | |
Yinon Magal Other source | 62 as of Sep 5, 2026 | 0.07 · Excellent (2) | |
eaworldview.com Other source | 61 as of Jun 1, 2026 | — | |
כיכר השבת; אלי גוטהלף Other source | 61 | — | |
כיכר השבת; יוני גבאי Other source | 56 | 0.3 · Poor (6) | |
albawaba.com Other source | 50 as of Jun 1, 2026 | — | |
Julio Segador Other source | 49 as of Aug 24, 2026 | 0.07 · Excellent (2) | |
albawaba.net Other source | 48 as of Jun 1, 2026 | — | |
Zein Khalil and Rania Abushamala Other source | 47 as of Aug 24, 2026 | — | |
MSN Other source | 43 as of Jun 4, 2026 | — | |
Abdel Raouf Arnaout; Rania Abushamala Other source | 38 as of Aug 24, 2026 | — | |
כיכר השבת; קובי ישראל Other source | 36 as of Aug 30, 2026 | 0.16 · Good (2) | |
Tarek Chouiref; Zein Khalil Other source | 34 | — | |
batonrougepost.com Other source | 32 as of Jun 1, 2026 | — | |
parisguardian.com Other source | 29 as of Jun 1, 2026 | — | |
Zein Khalil Other source | 19 as of Aug 24, 2026 | — | |
graphic.com.gh Other source | 15 as of Jun 1, 2026 | — | |
כיכר השבת; משה כהן Other source | 4 as of Sep 3, 2026 | — |
The articles behind this
115 articlesEvery article the Oracul read on this forecast, newest first. A piece re-read across several snapshots counts once.
- HaPargodOct 5, 2026, 06:12 PMt.me
- YnetOct 3, 2026, 09:31 PMynet.co.il
- Tarek Chouiref; Zein KhalilSep 30, 2026, 03:11 AMaa.com.tr
- כיכר השבת; ישי כהןSep 23, 2026, 07:17 AMkikar.co.il
- HaDosimSep 18, 2026, 04:55 PMt.me
- כיכר השבת; יוני גבאיSep 18, 2026, 12:59 PMkikar.co.il
- SrugimSep 17, 2026, 08:51 AMsrugim.co.il
- YnetSep 16, 2026, 06:37 AMynet.co.il
- כיכר השבת; אלי גוטהלףSep 14, 2026, 04:32 PMkikar.co.il
- כיכר השבת; ישי כהןSep 10, 2026, 07:54 AMkikar.co.il
- SrugimSep 7, 2026, 04:19 PMsrugim.co.il
- YnetSep 7, 2026, 04:19 PMynet.co.il
- Ben CaspitSep 5, 2026, 04:35 PMt.me
- Ben CaspitSep 5, 2026, 04:35 PMt.me
- Ben CaspitSep 5, 2026, 04:35 PMt.me
- Ben CaspitSep 5, 2026, 04:35 PMt.me
- Ben CaspitSep 5, 2026, 04:35 PMt.me
- Ben CaspitSep 5, 2026, 04:35 PMt.me
- Ben CaspitSep 5, 2026, 04:35 PMt.me
- YnetSep 5, 2026, 04:34 PMynet.co.il
Show all 115 articles
- Yinon MagalSep 5, 2026, 12:56 PMt.me
- Jerusalem PostSep 3, 2026, 10:28 PMjpost.com
- כיכר השבת; משה כהןSep 3, 2026, 08:43 PMkikar.co.il
- WallaSep 2, 2026, 07:41 PMnews.walla.co.il
- Jerusalem PostSep 1, 2026, 10:04 PMjpost.com
- כיכר השבת; אסף מגידוSep 1, 2026, 01:51 PMkikar.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 30, 2026, 11:31 AMjpost.com
- SrugimAug 30, 2026, 09:47 AMsrugim.co.il
- כיכר השבת; קובי ישראלAug 30, 2026, 09:27 AMkikar.co.il
- כיכר השבת; קובי ישראלAug 29, 2026, 09:39 PMkikar.co.il
- YnetAug 27, 2026, 09:00 PMynet.co.il
- SrugimAug 26, 2026, 01:29 PMsrugim.co.il
- Ben CaspitAug 16, 2026, 01:35 PMt.me
- SrugimAug 15, 2026, 09:57 PMsrugim.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 14, 2026, 03:37 PMjpost.com
- MaarivAug 14, 2026, 12:04 AMmaariv.co.il
- YnetAug 13, 2026, 11:19 PMynet.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 12, 2026, 05:12 PMjpost.com
- Jerusalem PostAug 11, 2026, 11:06 PMjpost.com
- Al JazeeraAug 11, 2026, 02:57 PMaljazeera.net
- YnetAug 10, 2026, 11:22 AMynet.co.il
- YnetAug 8, 2026, 07:42 AMynet.co.il
- Nadav Eyal · YnetAug 7, 2026, 09:44 PMynet.co.il
- Ben CaspitAug 7, 2026, 06:04 PMt.me
- YnetnewsAug 6, 2026, 11:42 PMynetnews.com
- YnetAug 4, 2026, 04:48 PMynet.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 3, 2026, 06:17 AMjpost.com
- Ben CaspitAug 2, 2026, 02:33 PMt.me
- Israel National NewsAug 2, 2026, 02:22 PMisraelnationalnews.com
- WallaAug 2, 2026, 02:07 PMnews.walla.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 2, 2026, 02:02 PMjpost.com
- Jerusalem PostJul 31, 2026, 09:48 AMjpost.com
- Jerusalem PostJul 29, 2026, 08:22 PMjpost.com
- Jerusalem PostJul 27, 2026, 01:37 PMjpost.com
- Jerusalem PostJul 26, 2026, 12:10 PMjpost.com
- Ben CaspitJul 22, 2026, 06:03 PMt.me
- WallaJul 21, 2026, 09:44 PMnews.walla.co.il
- WallaJul 21, 2026, 10:01 AMnews.walla.co.il
- Ben Caspit · Jerusalem PostJul 20, 2026, 12:44 PMjpost.com
- Jerusalem PostJul 20, 2026, 10:05 AMjpost.com
- YnetJul 17, 2026, 07:54 AMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 17, 2026, 04:39 AMynet.co.il
- Julio SegadorJul 17, 2026, 03:40 AMtagesschau.de
- Jerusalem PostJul 17, 2026, 12:58 AMjpost.com
- YnetJul 16, 2026, 10:31 PMynet.co.il
- Jerusalem PostJul 16, 2026, 07:44 PMjpost.com
- Jerusalem PostJul 16, 2026, 06:39 PMjpost.com
- YnetJul 16, 2026, 04:23 PMynet.co.il
- WallaJul 16, 2026, 12:54 PMnews.walla.co.il
- WallaJul 16, 2026, 10:59 AMnews.walla.co.il
- Jerusalem PostJul 16, 2026, 07:46 AMjpost.com
- Jerusalem PostJul 16, 2026, 05:53 AMjpost.com
- Jerusalem PostJul 16, 2026, 02:53 AMjpost.com
- Al JazeeraJul 16, 2026, 01:07 AMaljazeera.net
- Julio SegadorJul 15, 2026, 08:41 PMtagesschau.de
- Jerusalem PostJul 15, 2026, 08:09 PMjpost.com
- Abdel Raouf Arnaout; Rania AbushamalaJul 15, 2026, 06:37 PMaa.com.tr
- Jerusalem PostJul 15, 2026, 02:38 PMjpost.com
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 12:46 PMynet.co.il
- YnetnewsJul 15, 2026, 08:09 AMynetnews.com
- Jerusalem PostJul 15, 2026, 06:53 AMjpost.com
- Al JazeeraJul 15, 2026, 06:22 AMaljazeera.net
- Jerusalem PostJul 15, 2026, 02:33 AMjpost.com
- Ben CaspitJul 15, 2026, 01:09 AMt.me
- Ben CaspitJul 14, 2026, 11:47 PMt.me
- Zein KhalilJul 14, 2026, 10:15 PMaa.com.tr
- Al JazeeraJul 14, 2026, 04:48 PMaljazeera.net
- YnetJul 14, 2026, 02:35 PMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 14, 2026, 02:35 PMynet.co.il
- Jerusalem PostJul 14, 2026, 11:40 AMjpost.com
- YnetnewsJul 14, 2026, 11:16 AMynetnews.com
- YnetJul 13, 2026, 10:06 AMynet.co.il
- Zein Khalil and Rania AbushamalaJul 12, 2026, 06:48 PMaa.com.tr
- Jerusalem PostJul 5, 2026, 05:14 PMjpost.com
- WallaJul 5, 2026, 05:14 PMnews.walla.co.il
- YnetJun 30, 2026, 07:58 PMynet.co.il
- Al JazeeraJun 14, 2026, 04:52 AMaljazeera.com
- MSNJun 4, 2026, 03:50 PMmsn.com
- MSNJun 4, 2026, 03:50 PMmsn.com
- MSNJun 4, 2026, 03:50 PMmsn.com
- MSNJun 4, 2026, 03:50 PMmsn.com
- parisguardian.comJun 1, 2026, 05:01 PMparisguardian.com
- morungexpress.comJun 1, 2026, 05:01 PMmorungexpress.com
- themedialine.orgJun 1, 2026, 05:01 PMthemedialine.org
- themedialine.orgJun 1, 2026, 05:01 PMthemedialine.org
- albawaba.netJun 1, 2026, 05:01 PMalbawaba.net
- graphic.com.ghJun 1, 2026, 05:01 PMgraphic.com.gh
- JNSJun 1, 2026, 05:01 PMjns.org
- JNSJun 1, 2026, 05:01 PMjns.org
- JNSJun 1, 2026, 05:01 PMjns.org
- batonrougepost.comJun 1, 2026, 12:22 PMbatonrougepost.com
- batonrougepost.comJun 1, 2026, 12:22 PMbatonrougepost.com
- eaworldview.comJun 1, 2026, 12:22 PMeaworldview.com
- albawaba.comJun 1, 2026, 12:22 PMalbawaba.com
- winknews.comJun 1, 2026, 12:22 PMwinknews.com
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