A running track record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: Resolved — Came trueExpected resolution date: Jan 1, 2027Last updated: Sep 15, 2026
Itamar Ben-Gvir will not reserve a spot for Idit Silman on the Otzma Yehudit party list by December 31, 2026.
Did it come true: Itamar Ben-Gvir will not reserve a spot for Idit Silman on the Otzma Yehudit party list by December 31, 2026? Resolved: yes — it came true.
Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists
Final estimate
24%
Came trueResolved Sep 27, 2026
The Oracul's final estimate before resolution was 24%.Missed
Best call
- Ynet66%Brier 0.12 · 4 articles
Biggest miss
- Ben Caspit0%Brier 1.00 · 1 article
Who was right — scored
Panel average: 29%MissedRanked by Brier score on this forecast alone: the squared gap between a source's last recorded confidence and what actually happened. 0 is a perfect call, 0.25 is a coin flip.
| Rank | Source / Person | Final call | Verdict · Brier | Confidence Over Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ynet Outlet | 66 4 articles | Called it0.12 | |
| 2 | Walla Outlet | 34 2 articles | Missed0.44 | |
| 2 | כיכר השבת; יוני גבאי Other source | 34 1 article | Missed0.44 | |
| 4 | Srugim Outlet | 16 4 articles | Missed0.71 | |
| 5 | Ben Caspit Person | 0 1 article | Missed1.00 |
The verdict
Got it right — Ynet.Got it wrong — Walla, כיכר השבת; יוני גבאי, Srugim, Ben Caspit.
The articles behind this
12 articlesEvery article the Oracul read on this forecast, newest first. A piece re-read across several snapshots counts once.
- SrugimSep 15, 2026, 10:32 AMsrugim.co.il
- כיכר השבת; יוני גבאיSep 14, 2026, 04:21 PMkikar.co.il
- WallaSep 14, 2026, 04:21 PMnews.walla.co.il
- YnetSep 14, 2026, 04:21 PMynet.co.il
- SrugimSep 7, 2026, 01:57 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 28, 2026, 12:16 PMsrugim.co.il
- WallaAug 24, 2026, 01:33 PMnews.walla.co.il
- YnetAug 24, 2026, 10:39 AMynet.co.il
- SrugimAug 20, 2026, 04:58 PMsrugim.co.il
- YnetAug 20, 2026, 04:58 PMynet.co.il
- YnetAug 20, 2026, 04:58 PMynet.co.il
- Ben CaspitAug 20, 2026, 02:36 PMt.me
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