Al Jazeera

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Qatari news media network headquartered in Doha; its flagship channels are Al Jazeera Arabic and Al Jazeera English.

How accurate has Al Jazeera been on 2026 election calls? We track every prediction they make and score it once the outcome is known.

Forecasts covered

23 / 27

Articles cited

108

Brier / Track Record

0.14

Good (8)

Last seen

Oct 5, 2026

Forecast	Confidence	Confidence Over Time
Yoaz Hendel will run in the 26th Knesset elections as part of a party he leads or founded, and will not join another existing list.	100
In the next Knesset elections, no single party will receive more than 25 seats.	68
Yoav Segalovitz will be a candidate on the Ra'am party list in the next Knesset elections.	66
By August 18, 2026, the Yeshar Party will lead Likud in at least two different national mandate polls, and in at least one of these polls, the lead will be two mandates or more.	66
At least one party will announce its withdrawal from the race for the 26th Knesset by the deadline for submitting candidate lists.	63
A single large political list will not be formed, including at least four of the following six politicians: Benny Gantz, Yoaz Hendel, Hili Tropper, Ayelet Shaked, Yuli Edelstein, and Gilaad Erdan, by the final deadline for submitting candidate lists for the next general elections in Israel, expected to take place by December 31, 2026.	62
The first government sworn in after the next Knesset elections will include at least one party from the current opposition and one party from the current coalition.	61
Gadi Eisenkot will be Prime Minister of Israel after the elections held on October 27, 2026, possibly as part of a rotation agreement.	60
In the next Knesset elections, at least two parties currently represented in the Knesset will run and fail to pass the electoral threshold.	57
At least two Arab parties will run in the 2026 elections as a joint list.	56
The next Israeli government will not include any Arab ministers by December 31, 2026.	51
The next Prime Minister of Israel (after the October 27, 2026 Knesset elections) will serve for less than a full four-year term.	48
Benny Gantz's party will run in the 2026 elections without an electoral alliance with another party until the deadline for submitting lists to the Central Elections Committee.	48
Benjamin Netanyahu will be the Prime Minister of Israel on December 31, 2026.	47
Benjamin Netanyahu will win the 2026 Israeli general election and be appointed Prime Minister.	44
Benjamin Netanyahu will form the next government in Israel by December 31, 2026.	42
The Israeli parliament will be dissolved by July 15, 2026.	41
Benjamin Netanyahu will be appointed Prime Minister of Israel following the next general election, by December 31, 2026.	41
The voting percentage of Haredi Jews will be higher than that of non-Haredi Jews in the Israeli elections on October 27, 2026.	39
Likud will win the next general election in Israel held by December 31, 2026.	39
Am Yisrael will not pass the electoral threshold in the next general elections for the Knesset by December 31, 2026.	35
Likud will secure more than 33 seats in the next Israeli Knesset election by December 31, 2026.	33
A law mandating Haredi enlistment into the Israel Defense Forces will be passed by the Knesset by December 31, 2030.	30

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