DaatanElections 2026
עברית/EN
A running track record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: OpenExpected resolution date: Nov 5, 2026Last updated: Oct 2, 2026

In the next Knesset elections, no single party will receive more than 25 seats.

What is the probability that In the next Knesset elections, no single party will receive more than 25 seats? As of Oct 2, 2026: the evidence estimate is 56%; the tracked-source panel average is 61%.

Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists

View on Daatan
Evidence estimate
56%

Who called it — by source

Panel average: 61%
Source / PersonConfidenceConfidence Over TimeBrier / Track Record
Ben Caspit
Person
58
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.29 · Poor (11)
Guy Bechor
Person
65
as of Aug 17, 2026
0.3 · Poor (4)
Israel National News
Outlet
86
as of Aug 28, 2026
0.34 · Poor (7)
Maariv
Outlet
81
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.15 · Good (9)
Srugim
Outlet
72
0.26 · Poor (10)
Al Jazeera
Outlet
68
0.14 · Good (8)
Jerusalem Post
Outlet
63
0.2 · Fair (10)
Walla
Outlet
58
0.16 · Good (11)
Ynet
Outlet
55
as of Aug 29, 2026
0.13 · Good (11)
Le Monde
Outlet
42
—
Globes correspondent
Other source
84
—
HaPargod
Other source
83
0.15 · Good (2)
Abderaouf Arnaout; Ikram Kouachi
Other source
81
—
Yinon Magal
Other source
74
0.07 · Excellent (2)
tagesschau.de
Other source
73
—
en.globes.co.il
Other source
58
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.72 · Poor (1)
aa.com.tr
Other source
50
as of Aug 25, 2026
0.35 · Poor (3)
Zein Khalil; Rania Abushamala
Other source
49
—
HaDosim
Other source
46
—
Mohammad Sio
Other source
44
—
Zein Khalil; Serdar Dincel
Other source
41
as of Aug 27, 2026
0.72 · Poor (2)
Khaled Yousef; Rania Abushamala
Other source
26
—
Abdel Ra'ouf D A R Arnaout; Rania Abushamala
Other source
23
—
כיכר השבת; קובי ישראל
Other source
10
0.16 · Good (2)

The articles behind this

72 articles

Every article the Oracul read on this forecast, newest first. A piece re-read across several snapshots counts once.

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