DaatanElections 2026
עברית/EN
A running track record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: OpenExpected resolution date: Nov 5, 2026Last updated: Oct 5, 2026

The first government sworn in after the next Knesset elections will include at least one party from the current opposition and one party from the current coalition.

What is the probability that The first government sworn in after the next Knesset elections will include at least one party from the current opposition and one party from the current coalition? As of Oct 5, 2026: the evidence estimate is 62%; the tracked-source panel average is 62%.

Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists

View on Daatan
Evidence estimate
62%

Who called it — by source

Panel average: 62%
Source / PersonConfidenceConfidence Over TimeBrier / Track Record
Amit Segal
Person
56
0.3 · Poor (6)
Ben Caspit
Person
61
0.29 · Poor (11)
Nadav Eyal
Person
65
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.32 · Poor (3)
Tal Shalev
Person
60
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.5 · Poor (1)
Anna Barsky
Person
67
0.1 · Good (3)
Ynetnews
Outlet
68
0.14 · Good (7)
Israel National News
Outlet
65
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.34 · Poor (7)
Jerusalem Post
Outlet
64
0.2 · Fair (10)
Srugim
Outlet
63
0.26 · Poor (10)
Walla
Outlet
62
0.16 · Good (11)
Maariv
Outlet
62
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.15 · Good (9)
Al Jazeera
Outlet
61
0.14 · Good (8)
JNS
Outlet
60
—
Ynet
Outlet
56
0.13 · Good (11)
Middle East Eye
Outlet
55
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.22 · Fair (4)
middleeaststar.com
Other source
100
as of Aug 20, 2026
—
Yinon Magal
Other source
88
0.07 · Excellent (2)
Julio Segador
Other source
77
as of Sep 1, 2026
0.07 · Excellent (2)
כיכר השבת; יוני גבאי
Other source
77
0.3 · Poor (6)
Said Amori; Mohammad Sio
Other source
68
—
Zein Khalil; Mohammad Sio
Other source
68
—
Daniel Amram
Other source
65
—
כיכר השבת; קובי ישראל
Other source
62
0.16 · Good (2)
Marianna Belenkaya
Other source
60
as of Jul 22, 2026
0.34 · Poor (4)
aa.com.tr
Other source
50
as of Aug 25, 2026
0.35 · Poor (3)
HaPargod
Other source
50
0.15 · Good (2)
Said Amori; Tarek Chouiref
Other source
49
—
Tarek Chouiref; Khaled Yousef
Other source
41
—
Emma Graham-Harrison
Other source
37
as of Aug 24, 2026
0 · Excellent (1)
Rina Bassist
Other source
34
as of Aug 27, 2026
—

The articles behind this

164 articles

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