Middle East Eye

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United Kingdom-based news website covering the Middle East, North Africa and the wider Muslim world.

How accurate has Middle East Eye been on 2026 election calls? We track every prediction they make and score it once the outcome is known.

Forecasts covered

14 / 27

Articles cited

Brier / Track Record

0.22

Fair (4)

Last seen

Sep 24, 2026

Forecast	Confidence	Confidence Over Time
At least two Arab parties will run in the 2026 elections as a joint list.	70
The next Israeli government will not include any Arab ministers by December 31, 2026.	65
Benjamin Netanyahu will be appointed Prime Minister of Israel following the next general election, by December 31, 2026.	59
Benjamin Netanyahu will be the Prime Minister of Israel on December 31, 2026.	58
Benjamin Netanyahu will win the 2026 Israeli general election and be appointed Prime Minister.	58
Gadi Eisenkot will be Prime Minister of Israel after the elections held on October 27, 2026, possibly as part of a rotation agreement.	57
The first government sworn in after the next Knesset elections will include at least one party from the current opposition and one party from the current coalition.	55
In the next Knesset elections, at least two parties currently represented in the Knesset will run and fail to pass the electoral threshold.	53
Benjamin Netanyahu will form the next government in Israel by December 31, 2026.	49
A single large political list will not be formed, including at least four of the following six politicians: Benny Gantz, Yoaz Hendel, Hili Tropper, Ayelet Shaked, Yuli Edelstein, and Gilaad Erdan, by the final deadline for submitting candidate lists for the next general elections in Israel, expected to take place by December 31, 2026.	48
Naftali Bennett will be sworn in as the next Prime Minister of Israel.	42
By August 18, 2026, the Yeshar Party will lead Likud in at least two different national mandate polls, and in at least one of these polls, the lead will be two mandates or more.	27
Likud will win the next general election in Israel held by December 31, 2026.	22
The Israeli parliament will be dissolved by July 15, 2026.	0

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