A running record of political judgmentOutlet
Outlet
Jerusalem Post
About
English-language Israeli broadsheet, founded in 1932 as The Palestine Post.
How accurate has Jerusalem Post been on 2026 election calls? We track every prediction they make and score it once the outcome is known.
Tracked contributors at this outlet
Forecasts covered
11 / 11
Articles cited
115
Brier / Track Record
0.05
Excellent (1)
Last seen
Aug 21, 2026
| Forecast | Confidence | Confidence Over Time |
|---|---|---|
| Yoaz Hendel will run in the 26th Knesset elections as part of a party he leads or founded, and will not join another existing list. | 84 | Jul 7, 2026, 04:35 PM Jul 7, 2026, 08:41 PM Jul 10, 2026, 12:15 AM |
| The Blue and White party, led by Benny Gantz, will announce by the end of August 2026 that it will not run in the next elections as an independent party. | 69 | Aug 20, 2026, 09:24 PM |
| The next Israeli government will not include any Arab ministers by December 31, 2026. | 62 | |
| At least two Arab parties will run in the 2026 elections as a joint list. | 58 | Aug 3, 2026, 09:57 PM |
| A single large political list will not be formed, including at least four of the following six politicians: Benny Gantz, Yoaz Hendel, Hili Tropper, Ayelet Shaked, Yuli Edelstein, and Gilaad Erdan, by the final deadline for submitting candidate lists for the next general elections in Israel, expected to take place by December 31, 2026. | 54 | Jul 13, 2026, 12:06 PM Jul 13, 2026, 09:19 PM |
| Benjamin Netanyahu will be the Prime Minister of Israel on December 31, 2026. | 52 | Jun 19, 2026, 10:03 PM Jul 3, 2026, 12:11 AM Jul 4, 2026, 02:14 AM Jul 12, 2026, 09:49 PM |
| Likud will win the next general election in Israel held by December 31, 2026. | 42 | Jul 13, 2026, 09:16 PM Jul 13, 2026, 09:27 PM Jul 14, 2026, 12:09 PM Jul 14, 2026, 12:47 PM Jul 14, 2026, 01:32 PM Jul 14, 2026, 02:16 PM Jul 14, 2026, 02:56 PM Jul 14, 2026, 03:35 PM Jul 14, 2026, 04:08 PM Jul 14, 2026, 07:08 PM Jul 14, 2026, 08:15 PM Jul 14, 2026, 08:36 PM Jul 15, 2026, 12:31 AM Jul 15, 2026, 12:52 AM Jul 15, 2026, 02:29 AM Jul 15, 2026, 04:35 AM Jul 15, 2026, 05:04 AM Jul 15, 2026, 05:35 AM Jul 15, 2026, 06:00 AM Jul 15, 2026, 06:21 AM Jul 15, 2026, 06:49 AM Jul 15, 2026, 07:20 AM Jul 15, 2026, 07:40 AM Jul 15, 2026, 10:24 AM Jul 15, 2026, 10:49 AM Jul 15, 2026, 11:39 AM Jul 15, 2026, 11:51 AM Jul 15, 2026, 12:13 PM |
| A law mandating Haredi enlistment into the Israel Defense Forces will be passed by the Knesset by December 31, 2030. | 42 | Jul 5, 2026, 05:14 PM Jul 14, 2026, 11:40 AM Jul 14, 2026, 01:06 PM Jul 15, 2026, 02:33 AM Jul 15, 2026, 06:53 AM |
| Likud will secure more than 33 seats in the next Israeli Knesset election by December 31, 2026. | 32 | Jul 10, 2026, 02:56 PM Jul 12, 2026, 05:16 PM Jul 12, 2026, 05:22 PM Jul 12, 2026, 05:32 PM Jul 12, 2026, 05:47 PM Jul 12, 2026, 07:56 PM Jul 12, 2026, 08:16 PM Jul 12, 2026, 09:38 PM Jul 13, 2026, 01:46 PM Jul 13, 2026, 05:52 PM Jul 13, 2026, 06:03 PM Jul 14, 2026, 12:46 PM Jul 14, 2026, 03:53 PM Jul 14, 2026, 05:16 PM Jul 14, 2026, 06:29 PM Jul 14, 2026, 09:40 PM Jul 14, 2026, 09:53 PM Jul 14, 2026, 11:47 PM Jul 15, 2026, 12:08 AM Jul 15, 2026, 04:40 AM Jul 15, 2026, 05:28 AM Jul 15, 2026, 12:16 PM |
| Benny Gantz's party will run in the 2026 elections without an electoral alliance with another party until the deadline for submitting lists to the Central Elections Committee. | 27 | |
| The Israeli parliament will be dissolved by July 15, 2026. | 22 |