A running record of political judgmentPerson
Person
Nadav Eyal
About
Israeli journalist and commentator; former foreign-news editor at Channel 13 and author of Revolt (2021).
How accurate has Nadav Eyal been on 2026 election calls? We track every prediction they make and score it once the outcome is known.
Forecasts covered
6 / 11
Articles cited
6
Brier / Track Record
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Last seen
Aug 8, 2026
| Forecast | Confidence | Confidence Over Time |
|---|---|---|
| The next Israeli government will not include any Arab ministers by December 31, 2026. | 74 | Aug 8, 2026, 08:37 AM |
| A single large political list will not be formed, including at least four of the following six politicians: Benny Gantz, Yoaz Hendel, Hili Tropper, Ayelet Shaked, Yuli Edelstein, and Gilaad Erdan, by the final deadline for submitting candidate lists for the next general elections in Israel, expected to take place by December 31, 2026. | 36 | Jul 15, 2026, 01:10 PM Jul 17, 2026, 01:19 AM |
| Likud will win the next general election in Israel held by December 31, 2026. | 35 | Jul 10, 2026, 07:32 AM Jul 11, 2026, 07:11 PM Jul 11, 2026, 10:12 PM Jul 12, 2026, 05:32 PM Jul 12, 2026, 06:48 PM Jul 12, 2026, 08:46 PM Jul 12, 2026, 09:37 PM Jul 12, 2026, 10:02 PM Jul 13, 2026, 12:53 AM Jul 16, 2026, 02:57 AM Jul 17, 2026, 12:25 AM Jul 17, 2026, 11:42 AM |
| Likud will secure more than 33 seats in the next Israeli Knesset election by December 31, 2026. | 32 | Jul 10, 2026, 07:32 AM Jul 12, 2026, 05:16 PM Jul 12, 2026, 05:22 PM Jul 12, 2026, 05:32 PM Jul 12, 2026, 05:47 PM Jul 12, 2026, 07:56 PM Jul 12, 2026, 08:16 PM Jul 12, 2026, 09:38 PM Jul 13, 2026, 01:46 PM Jul 13, 2026, 05:52 PM Jul 13, 2026, 06:03 PM Jul 14, 2026, 12:46 PM Jul 14, 2026, 01:53 PM Jul 14, 2026, 03:53 PM Jul 14, 2026, 05:16 PM Jul 14, 2026, 05:45 PM Jul 14, 2026, 06:29 PM Jul 14, 2026, 09:40 PM Jul 14, 2026, 09:53 PM Jul 14, 2026, 11:47 PM Jul 15, 2026, 12:08 AM Jul 15, 2026, 01:16 AM Jul 15, 2026, 02:01 AM Jul 15, 2026, 02:30 AM Jul 15, 2026, 02:55 AM Jul 15, 2026, 04:40 AM Jul 15, 2026, 05:28 AM Jul 15, 2026, 06:18 AM Jul 15, 2026, 06:54 AM Jul 15, 2026, 07:19 AM Jul 15, 2026, 07:44 AM Jul 15, 2026, 08:06 AM Jul 15, 2026, 09:00 AM Jul 15, 2026, 09:25 AM Jul 15, 2026, 10:18 AM Jul 15, 2026, 11:10 AM Jul 15, 2026, 11:49 AM Jul 15, 2026, 12:16 PM Jul 15, 2026, 01:16 PM Jul 15, 2026, 01:39 PM Jul 15, 2026, 02:02 PM Jul 15, 2026, 02:45 PM Jul 15, 2026, 03:18 PM Jul 15, 2026, 03:32 PM Jul 15, 2026, 04:27 PM Jul 15, 2026, 06:17 PM Jul 15, 2026, 06:48 PM Jul 15, 2026, 07:42 PM Jul 15, 2026, 08:19 PM Jul 15, 2026, 09:16 PM Jul 15, 2026, 09:41 PM Jul 15, 2026, 11:16 PM Jul 16, 2026, 12:59 AM Jul 16, 2026, 01:26 AM Jul 16, 2026, 02:22 AM Jul 16, 2026, 03:21 AM Jul 16, 2026, 03:53 AM Jul 16, 2026, 06:44 AM Jul 16, 2026, 07:06 AM Jul 16, 2026, 07:39 AM Jul 16, 2026, 08:07 AM Jul 16, 2026, 10:27 AM Jul 16, 2026, 10:53 AM Jul 16, 2026, 12:28 PM Jul 16, 2026, 12:45 PM Jul 16, 2026, 02:33 PM Jul 16, 2026, 02:56 PM Jul 16, 2026, 03:25 PM Jul 16, 2026, 04:55 PM Jul 16, 2026, 05:50 PM Jul 16, 2026, 06:15 PM Jul 16, 2026, 10:58 PM Jul 17, 2026, 12:55 AM Jul 17, 2026, 04:44 AM Jul 17, 2026, 06:09 AM Jul 17, 2026, 09:23 AM Jul 17, 2026, 01:06 PM Jul 17, 2026, 01:36 PM Jul 17, 2026, 01:40 PM Jul 17, 2026, 01:56 PM Jul 17, 2026, 02:01 PM Jul 17, 2026, 02:21 PM Jul 17, 2026, 02:47 PM Jul 17, 2026, 07:32 PM Jul 17, 2026, 10:24 PM Jul 18, 2026, 01:17 AM Jul 18, 2026, 06:39 AM Jul 18, 2026, 06:58 AM Jul 18, 2026, 09:02 AM Jul 18, 2026, 08:48 PM Jul 19, 2026, 04:12 AM Jul 19, 2026, 12:29 PM Jul 19, 2026, 09:45 PM Jul 19, 2026, 11:52 PM Jul 20, 2026, 12:45 AM Jul 20, 2026, 01:24 PM Jul 20, 2026, 10:38 PM Jul 21, 2026, 02:27 AM Jul 21, 2026, 02:45 AM Jul 21, 2026, 09:25 AM Jul 21, 2026, 09:42 AM Jul 21, 2026, 10:18 AM Jul 21, 2026, 06:05 PM Jul 21, 2026, 08:59 PM Jul 21, 2026, 09:44 PM Jul 22, 2026, 04:05 PM Jul 23, 2026, 11:07 AM |
| A law mandating Haredi enlistment into the Israel Defense Forces will be passed by the Knesset by December 31, 2030. | 28 | Aug 7, 2026, 09:44 PM |
| Benjamin Netanyahu will be the Prime Minister of Israel on December 31, 2026. | 15 | Jul 14, 2026, 11:47 PM Jul 15, 2026, 03:05 PM |