A running track record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: Resolved — Came trueExpected resolution date: Sep 12, 2026Last updated: Sep 10, 2026
At least one party will announce its withdrawal from the race for the 26th Knesset by the deadline for submitting candidate lists.
Did it come true: At least one party will announce its withdrawal from the race for the 26th Knesset by the deadline for submitting candidate lists? Resolved: yes — it came true.
Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists
Final estimate
97%
Came trueResolved Sep 16, 2026
The Oracul's final estimate before resolution was 97%.Called it
Best call
- HaPargod100%Brier 0.00 · 1 article
Biggest miss
- Zein Khalil; Serdar Dincel17%Brier 0.69 · 1 article
Who was right — scored
Panel average: 60%HedgedRanked by Brier score on this forecast alone: the squared gap between a source's last recorded confidence and what actually happened. 0 is a perfect call, 0.25 is a coin flip.
| Rank | Source / Person | Final call | Verdict · Brier | Confidence Over Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HaPargod Other source | 100 1 article | Called it0.00 | |
| 2 | Shaun TANDON Sep Other source | 80 1 article | Called it0.04 | |
| 3 | Jerusalem Post Outlet | 71 10 articles | Called it0.08 | |
| 4 | Guy Bechor Person | 70 1 article | Called it0.09 | |
| 5 | כיכר השבת; משה בשן Other source | 68 1 article | Called it0.10 | |
| 6 | Walla Outlet | 67 9 articles | Called it0.11 | |
| 7 | Ynet Outlet | 65 22 articles | Called it0.12 | |
| 7 | Nadav Eyal Person | 66 2 articles | Called it0.12 | |
| 7 | Ynetnews Outlet | 65 2 articles | Called it0.12 | |
| 7 | Israel National News Outlet | 65 1 article | Called it0.12 | |
| 11 | Srugim Outlet | 63 38 articles | Hedged0.14 | |
| 11 | Ben Caspit Person | 62 16 articles | Hedged0.14 | |
| 11 | Al Jazeera Outlet | 63 3 articles | Hedged0.14 | |
| 14 | כיכר השבת; ישי כהן Other source | 58 1 article | Hedged0.18 | |
| 15 | Anna Barsky Person | 55 2 articles | Hedged0.20 | |
| 16 | Maariv Outlet | 51 4 articles | Hedged0.24 | |
| 17 | «Ազատություն» Ռ; Կ Other source | 50 1 article | Hedged0.25 | |
| 18 | כיכר השבת; חנני ברייטקופף Other source | 45 1 article | Hedged0.30 | |
| 19 | כיכר השבת; יוני גבאי Other source | 43 1 article | Hedged0.32 | |
| 20 | aa.com.tr Other source | 41 1 article | Hedged0.35 | |
| 21 | Meduza Other source | 36 1 article | Missed0.41 | |
| 22 | Amit Segal Person | 31 3 articles | Missed0.48 | |
| 23 | Zein Khalil; Serdar Dincel Other source | 17 1 article | Missed0.69 |
The verdict
Got it right — HaPargod, Shaun TANDON Sep, Jerusalem Post, Guy Bechor, כיכר השבת; משה בשן, Walla, Ynet, Nadav Eyal, Ynetnews, Israel National News.Got it wrong — Meduza, Amit Segal, Zein Khalil; Serdar Dincel.Hedged — Srugim, Ben Caspit, Al Jazeera, כיכר השבת; ישי כהן, Anna Barsky, Maariv, «Ազատություն» Ռ; Կ, כיכר השבת; חנני ברייטקופף, כיכר השבת; יוני גבאי, aa.com.tr.
The articles behind this
119 articlesEvery article the Oracul read on this forecast, newest first. A piece re-read across several snapshots counts once.
- Shaun TANDON SepSep 10, 2026, 02:33 PMal-monitor.com
- Jerusalem PostSep 10, 2026, 12:39 PMjpost.com
- SrugimSep 9, 2026, 03:07 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimSep 9, 2026, 10:23 AMsrugim.co.il
- Amit SegalSep 9, 2026, 07:42 AMt.me
- Ben CaspitSep 9, 2026, 05:54 AMt.me
- SrugimSep 8, 2026, 06:16 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimSep 8, 2026, 05:16 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimSep 8, 2026, 05:04 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimSep 8, 2026, 11:06 AMsrugim.co.il
- YnetnewsSep 8, 2026, 09:24 AMynetnews.com
- SrugimSep 8, 2026, 07:51 AMsrugim.co.il
- כיכר השבת; ישי כהןSep 8, 2026, 06:39 AMkikar.co.il
- YnetSep 7, 2026, 11:39 PMynet.co.il
- כיכר השבת; משה בשןSep 7, 2026, 09:07 PMkikar.co.il
- SrugimSep 7, 2026, 04:42 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimSep 7, 2026, 04:28 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimSep 7, 2026, 04:28 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimSep 7, 2026, 04:28 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimSep 7, 2026, 04:28 PMsrugim.co.il
Show all 119 articles
- Amit SegalSep 7, 2026, 03:48 PMt.me
- SrugimSep 7, 2026, 01:27 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimSep 7, 2026, 12:06 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimSep 7, 2026, 09:21 AMsrugim.co.il
- Jerusalem PostSep 7, 2026, 02:09 AMjpost.com
- SrugimSep 6, 2026, 08:10 PMsrugim.co.il
- Jerusalem PostSep 6, 2026, 05:37 PMjpost.com
- WallaSep 6, 2026, 04:35 PMnews.walla.co.il
- Ben CaspitSep 6, 2026, 12:40 PMt.me
- כיכר השבת; יוני גבאיSep 6, 2026, 12:19 PMkikar.co.il
- SrugimSep 6, 2026, 12:09 PMsrugim.co.il
- HaPargodSep 6, 2026, 11:59 AMt.me
- SrugimSep 6, 2026, 11:28 AMsrugim.co.il
- כיכר השבת; חנני ברייטקופףSep 6, 2026, 12:53 AMkikar.co.il
- SrugimSep 5, 2026, 10:49 PMsrugim.co.il
- «Ազատություն» Ռ; ԿSep 5, 2026, 04:41 PMazatutyun.am
- Jerusalem PostSep 5, 2026, 04:41 PMjpost.com
- Ben CaspitSep 5, 2026, 04:41 PMt.me
- YnetSep 5, 2026, 04:41 PMynet.co.il
- YnetSep 5, 2026, 04:41 PMynet.co.il
- Jerusalem PostSep 4, 2026, 10:13 PMjpost.com
- SrugimSep 3, 2026, 07:22 PMsrugim.co.il
- Anna Barsky · Jerusalem PostSep 3, 2026, 05:27 PMjpost.com
- YnetSep 3, 2026, 03:26 PMynet.co.il
- SrugimSep 1, 2026, 06:50 PMsrugim.co.il
- YnetSep 1, 2026, 04:16 PMynet.co.il
- WallaSep 1, 2026, 03:14 PMnews.walla.co.il
- WallaAug 31, 2026, 10:58 PMnews.walla.co.il
- MeduzaAug 31, 2026, 10:50 PMmeduza.io
- SrugimAug 31, 2026, 06:50 PMsrugim.co.il
- aa.com.trAug 31, 2026, 05:28 PMaa.com.tr
- SrugimAug 31, 2026, 05:28 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 30, 2026, 04:18 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 28, 2026, 12:16 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 28, 2026, 11:20 AMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 27, 2026, 07:49 AMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 27, 2026, 07:29 AMsrugim.co.il
- Zein Khalil; Serdar DincelAug 27, 2026, 05:39 AMaa.com.tr
- SrugimAug 25, 2026, 05:22 PMsrugim.co.il
- WallaAug 25, 2026, 12:04 PMnews.walla.co.il
- SrugimAug 25, 2026, 11:47 AMsrugim.co.il
- Ben CaspitAug 19, 2026, 11:48 AMt.me
- MaarivAug 19, 2026, 06:15 AMmaariv.co.il
- WallaAug 18, 2026, 06:17 PMnews.walla.co.il
- MaarivAug 18, 2026, 03:46 PMmaariv.co.il
- MaarivAug 18, 2026, 10:53 AMmaariv.co.il
- Ben CaspitAug 17, 2026, 10:38 AMt.me
- Ben CaspitAug 17, 2026, 10:38 AMt.me
- YnetAug 17, 2026, 10:38 AMynet.co.il
- SrugimAug 15, 2026, 09:11 PMsrugim.co.il
- Ben CaspitAug 14, 2026, 11:19 AMt.me
- SrugimAug 13, 2026, 08:25 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 13, 2026, 07:57 AMsrugim.co.il
- MaarivAug 12, 2026, 11:49 PMmaariv.co.il
- Ben CaspitAug 12, 2026, 03:40 PMt.me
- YnetnewsAug 12, 2026, 02:25 AMynetnews.com
- YnetAug 12, 2026, 12:22 AMynet.co.il
- SrugimAug 11, 2026, 08:54 PMsrugim.co.il
- YnetAug 11, 2026, 11:11 AMynet.co.il
- WallaAug 10, 2026, 07:22 PMnews.walla.co.il
- Ben CaspitAug 10, 2026, 04:47 PMt.me
- Ben CaspitAug 10, 2026, 11:22 AMt.me
- Nadav Eyal · YnetAug 10, 2026, 11:22 AMynet.co.il
- WallaAug 10, 2026, 11:14 AMnews.walla.co.il
- SrugimAug 9, 2026, 09:01 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 9, 2026, 06:52 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 9, 2026, 06:15 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 9, 2026, 03:36 PMsrugim.co.il
- YnetAug 8, 2026, 08:32 AMynet.co.il
- YnetAug 8, 2026, 02:10 AMynet.co.il
- Ben CaspitAug 6, 2026, 11:10 PMt.me
- Ben CaspitAug 6, 2026, 08:24 PMt.me
- Amit SegalAug 6, 2026, 04:30 PMnewsletter.amitsegal.net
- YnetAug 6, 2026, 02:56 AMynet.co.il
- Ben CaspitAug 4, 2026, 12:35 PMt.me
- Al JazeeraJul 30, 2026, 09:06 AMaljazeera.com
- Jerusalem PostJul 28, 2026, 05:05 PMjpost.com
- YnetJul 28, 2026, 01:25 PMynet.co.il
- Ben CaspitJul 26, 2026, 09:12 AMt.me
- Guy BechorJul 21, 2026, 07:38 AMt.me
- Al JazeeraJul 20, 2026, 01:08 PMaljazeera.net
- Ben CaspitJul 19, 2026, 03:40 PMt.me
- YnetJul 19, 2026, 10:29 AMynet.co.il
- Jerusalem PostJul 17, 2026, 01:23 AMjpost.com
- Ben CaspitJul 16, 2026, 09:01 PMt.me
- Anna Barsky · Jerusalem PostJul 16, 2026, 04:44 PMjpost.com
- Nadav Eyal · YnetJul 15, 2026, 02:15 PMynet.co.il
- WallaJul 15, 2026, 01:36 PMnews.walla.co.il
- WallaJul 15, 2026, 11:54 AMnews.walla.co.il
- Al JazeeraJul 15, 2026, 10:19 AMaljazeera.net
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 07:19 AMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 06:28 AMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 04:39 AMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 01:57 AMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 14, 2026, 11:01 PMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 14, 2026, 04:14 PMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 14, 2026, 02:34 PMynet.co.il
- Israel National NewsJul 11, 2026, 10:30 PMisraelnationalnews.com
- Jerusalem PostJul 11, 2026, 09:18 PMjpost.com
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