A running record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: ResolvedExpected resolution date: Jul 16, 2026Last updated: Jul 16, 2026
The Israeli parliament will be dissolved by July 15, 2026.
Did it come true: The Israeli parliament will be dissolved by July 15, 2026? Resolved: no — it did not come true.
Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists
AI estimate
3%
Who called it — by source
Panel average: 29%| Source / Person | Confidence | Confidence Over Time | Brier / Track Record |
|---|---|---|---|
Amit Segal Person | — | — | — |
Ben Caspit Person | 65 | Jul 14, 2026, 05:29 PM | 0.42 · Poor (1) |
Nadav Eyal Person | — | — | — |
Tal Shalev Person | — | — | — |
Anna Barsky Person | — | — | — |
Edy Cohen Person | — | — | — |
Guy Bechor Person | — | — | — |
Hananya Naftali Person | — | — | — |
Khaled Abu Toameh Person | — | — | — |
Nasser Al-Lahham Person | — | — | — |
Al Jazeera Outlet | 41 | Jul 7, 2026, 01:10 PM Jul 11, 2026, 07:11 PM Jul 12, 2026, 05:11 PM Jul 12, 2026, 05:16 PM Jul 12, 2026, 05:31 PM Jul 14, 2026, 11:47 PM Jul 15, 2026, 07:39 PM Jul 16, 2026, 01:09 AM | 0.17 · Good (1) |
Ynet Outlet | 33 | Jul 12, 2026, 05:11 PM Jul 12, 2026, 05:31 PM Jul 14, 2026, 01:07 PM Jul 14, 2026, 11:24 PM Jul 15, 2026, 03:16 AM Jul 15, 2026, 04:35 AM Jul 15, 2026, 05:34 AM Jul 15, 2026, 06:26 AM Jul 15, 2026, 08:09 AM Jul 15, 2026, 09:05 AM Jul 15, 2026, 11:52 AM Jul 15, 2026, 07:39 PM | 0.11 · Good (1) |
Ynetnews Outlet | 24 | Jul 15, 2026, 09:30 AM | 0.06 · Excellent (1) |
Jerusalem Post Outlet | 22 | 0.05 · Excellent (1) | |
Walla Outlet | 17 | Jul 15, 2026, 12:30 AM Jul 15, 2026, 02:26 AM | 0.03 · Excellent (1) |
Middle East Eye Outlet | 0 | Jul 14, 2026, 06:28 PM | 0 · Excellent (1) |
arabic.euronews.com Other source | 100 | Jul 11, 2026, 07:11 PM | 1 · Poor (1) |
admin Other source | 68 | Jul 14, 2026, 01:54 PM Jul 15, 2026, 07:39 PM | 0.46 · Poor (1) |
al-monitor.com Other source | 64 | Jul 14, 2026, 03:14 PM Jul 15, 2026, 07:39 PM | 0.41 · Poor (1) |
Emma Graham-Harrison Other source | 0 | Jul 14, 2026, 06:47 PM Jul 14, 2026, 09:52 PM | 0 · Excellent (1) |
Main disagreement
High confidence — Ben Caspit.Low confidence — Ynetnews, Ynet, Walla, Jerusalem Post, Middle East Eye.
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