A running track record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: Resolved — Did not happenExpected resolution date: Jul 16, 2026Last updated: Jul 16, 2026
The Israeli parliament will be dissolved by July 15, 2026.
Did it come true: The Israeli parliament will be dissolved by July 15, 2026? Resolved: no — it did not come true.
Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists
Final estimate
3%
Did not happenResolved Jul 23, 2026
The Oracul's final estimate before resolution was 3%.Called it
Best call
- Middle East Eye0%Brier 0.00 · 1 article
- Emma Graham-Harrison0%Brier 0.00 · 1 article
Biggest miss
- Ben Caspit65%Brier 0.42 · 1 article
Who was right — scored
Panel average: 29%Called itRanked by Brier score on this forecast alone: the squared gap between a source's last recorded confidence and what actually happened. 0 is a perfect call, 0.25 is a coin flip.
| Rank | Source / Person | Final call | Verdict · Brier | Confidence Over Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middle East Eye Outlet | 0 1 article | Called it0.00 | |
| 1 | Emma Graham-Harrison Other source | 0 1 article | Called it0.00 | |
| 3 | Walla Outlet | 17 2 articles | Called it0.03 | |
| 4 | Jerusalem Post Outlet | 22 3 articles | Called it0.05 | |
| 5 | Ynetnews Outlet | 24 1 article | Called it0.06 | |
| 6 | Ynet Outlet | 33 12 articles | Called it0.11 | |
| 7 | Al Jazeera Outlet | 41 4 articles | Hedged0.17 | |
| 8 | al-monitor.com Other source | 64 1 article | Hedged0.41 | |
| 9 | Ben Caspit Person | 65 1 article | Missed0.42 |
The verdict
Got it right — Middle East Eye, Emma Graham-Harrison, Walla, Jerusalem Post, Ynetnews, Ynet.Got it wrong — Ben Caspit.Hedged — Al Jazeera, al-monitor.com.
The articles behind this
26 articlesEvery article the Oracul read on this forecast, newest first. A piece re-read across several snapshots counts once.
- Al JazeeraJul 16, 2026, 01:09 AMaljazeera.net
- Al JazeeraJul 15, 2026, 07:39 PMaljazeera.com
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 07:39 PMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 07:39 PMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 11:52 AMynet.co.il
- YnetnewsJul 15, 2026, 09:30 AMynetnews.com
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 09:05 AMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 08:09 AMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 06:26 AMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 05:34 AMynet.co.il
- Jerusalem PostJul 15, 2026, 05:01 AMjpost.com
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 04:35 AMynet.co.il
- Jerusalem PostJul 15, 2026, 03:42 AMjpost.com
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 03:16 AMynet.co.il
- WallaJul 15, 2026, 02:26 AMnews.walla.co.il
- WallaJul 15, 2026, 12:30 AMnews.walla.co.il
- Al JazeeraJul 14, 2026, 11:47 PMaljazeera.com
- YnetJul 14, 2026, 11:24 PMynet.co.il
- Emma Graham-HarrisonJul 14, 2026, 06:47 PMtheguardian.com
- Middle East EyeJul 14, 2026, 06:28 PMmiddleeasteye.net
Other Active Forecasts
- Benjamin Netanyahu will win the 2026 Israeli general election and be appointed Prime Minister.Last updated: Oct 5, 2026Open→
- Benjamin Netanyahu will be the Prime Minister of Israel on December 31, 2026.Last updated: Oct 5, 2026Open→
- Benjamin Netanyahu will form the next government in Israel by December 31, 2026.Last updated: Oct 5, 2026Open→
- Benjamin Netanyahu will be appointed Prime Minister of Israel following the next general election, by December 31, 2026.Last updated: Oct 5, 2026Open→
- Likud will win the next general election in Israel held by December 31, 2026.Last updated: Oct 5, 2026Open→
- The first government sworn in after the next Knesset elections will include at least one party from the current opposition and one party from the current coalition.Last updated: Oct 5, 2026Open→
- The next Israeli government will not include any Arab ministers by December 31, 2026.Last updated: Oct 5, 2026Open→
- Gadi Eisenkot will be Prime Minister of Israel after the elections held on October 27, 2026, possibly as part of a rotation agreement.Last updated: Oct 5, 2026Open→
- In the next Knesset elections, at least two parties currently represented in the Knesset will run and fail to pass the electoral threshold.Last updated: Oct 5, 2026Open→
- Likud will secure more than 33 seats in the next Israeli Knesset election by December 31, 2026.Last updated: Oct 5, 2026Open→
- In the next Knesset elections, no single party will receive more than 25 seats.Last updated: Oct 2, 2026Open→
- A law mandating Haredi enlistment into the Israel Defense Forces will be passed by the Knesset by December 31, 2030.Last updated: Oct 5, 2026Open→
- Naftali Bennett will be sworn in as the next Prime Minister of Israel.Last updated: Sep 29, 2026Open→
- Am Yisrael will not pass the electoral threshold in the next general elections for the Knesset by December 31, 2026.Last updated: Oct 5, 2026Open→
- The next Prime Minister of Israel (after the October 27, 2026 Knesset elections) will serve for less than a full four-year term.Last updated: Oct 1, 2026Open→
- The voting percentage of Haredi Jews will be higher than that of non-Haredi Jews in the Israeli elections on October 27, 2026.Last updated: Sep 24, 2026Open→
- At least one party will announce its withdrawal from the race for the 26th Knesset by the deadline for submitting candidate lists.Last updated: Sep 10, 2026Resolved→
- A single large political list will not be formed, including at least four of the following six politicians: Benny Gantz, Yoaz Hendel, Hili Tropper, Ayelet Shaked, Yuli Edelstein, and Gilaad Erdan, by the final deadline for submitting candidate lists for the next general elections in Israel, expected to take place by December 31, 2026.Last updated: Sep 10, 2026Resolved→
- At least two Arab parties will run in the 2026 elections as a joint list.Last updated: Sep 8, 2026Resolved→
- Yoav Segalovitz will be a candidate on the Ra'am party list in the next Knesset elections.Last updated: Sep 7, 2026Resolved→
- By August 18, 2026, the Yeshar Party will lead Likud in at least two different national mandate polls, and in at least one of these polls, the lead will be two mandates or more.Last updated: Aug 18, 2026Resolved→
- Yoaz Hendel will run in the 26th Knesset elections as part of a party he leads or founded, and will not join another existing list.Last updated: Sep 10, 2026Resolved→
- Itamar Ben-Gvir will not reserve a spot for Hanoch Milwidsky on the Otzma Yehudit party list for the next general elections in Israel.Last updated: Sep 21, 2026Resolved→
- Benny Gantz's party will run in the 2026 elections without an electoral alliance with another party until the deadline for submitting lists to the Central Elections Committee.Last updated: Sep 10, 2026Resolved→
- The Blue and White party, led by Benny Gantz, will announce by the end of August 2026 that it will not run in the next elections as an independent party.Last updated: Aug 30, 2026Resolved→
- Itamar Ben-Gvir will not reserve a spot for Idit Silman on the Otzma Yehudit party list by December 31, 2026.Last updated: Sep 15, 2026Resolved→