A running record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: OpenExpected resolution date: Jan 1, 2027Last updated: Aug 18, 2026
The next Israeli government will not include any Arab ministers by December 31, 2026.
What is the probability that The next Israeli government will not include any Arab ministers by December 31, 2026? As of Aug 18, 2026: the AI estimate is 62%; the tracked-source panel average is 65%.
Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists
AI estimate
62%
Who called it — by source
Panel average: 65%| Source / Person | Confidence | Confidence Over Time | Brier / Track Record |
|---|---|---|---|
Amit Segal Person | — | — | — |
Ben Caspit Person | 68 | Jul 27, 2026, 11:59 AM Aug 6, 2026, 08:15 PM | 0.42 · Poor (1) |
Nadav Eyal Person | 74 | Aug 8, 2026, 08:37 AM | — |
Tal Shalev Person | — | — | — |
Anna Barsky Person | — | — | — |
Edy Cohen Person | — | — | — |
Guy Bechor Person | — | — | — |
Hananya Naftali Person | — | — | — |
Khaled Abu Toameh Person | — | — | — |
Nasser Al-Lahham Person | — | — | — |
Middle East Eye Outlet | 77 | Jul 14, 2026, 04:08 PM Jul 15, 2026, 06:26 AM Jul 16, 2026, 03:34 PM Jul 17, 2026, 11:20 AM Jul 20, 2026, 04:12 PM Aug 7, 2026, 09:47 AM | 0 · Excellent (1) |
JNS Outlet | 75 | Jul 13, 2026, 01:04 PM Jul 13, 2026, 09:19 PM Jul 14, 2026, 11:11 AM Jul 14, 2026, 11:43 AM Jul 14, 2026, 12:09 PM Jul 14, 2026, 12:26 PM Jul 14, 2026, 01:10 PM Jul 14, 2026, 01:34 PM Jul 14, 2026, 03:54 PM Jul 14, 2026, 04:08 PM Jul 14, 2026, 07:10 PM Jul 14, 2026, 08:19 PM Jul 14, 2026, 10:37 PM Jul 14, 2026, 11:23 PM Jul 15, 2026, 12:48 AM Jul 15, 2026, 01:11 AM Jul 15, 2026, 01:36 AM Jul 15, 2026, 02:02 AM Jul 15, 2026, 02:32 AM Jul 15, 2026, 02:53 AM Jul 15, 2026, 03:49 AM Jul 15, 2026, 04:42 AM Jul 15, 2026, 05:10 AM Jul 15, 2026, 05:27 AM Jul 15, 2026, 05:54 AM Jul 15, 2026, 06:26 AM Jul 15, 2026, 07:43 AM Jul 15, 2026, 09:31 AM Jul 15, 2026, 12:13 PM Jul 15, 2026, 06:39 PM Jul 15, 2026, 07:21 PM Jul 15, 2026, 08:20 PM Jul 15, 2026, 09:32 PM Jul 16, 2026, 02:04 AM Jul 16, 2026, 06:47 AM Jul 16, 2026, 10:25 AM Jul 16, 2026, 11:11 AM Jul 16, 2026, 02:34 PM Jul 16, 2026, 03:34 PM Jul 16, 2026, 07:08 PM Jul 16, 2026, 08:04 PM Jul 17, 2026, 12:54 AM Jul 17, 2026, 07:25 PM Jul 18, 2026, 01:42 AM Jul 18, 2026, 02:58 AM Jul 19, 2026, 12:27 PM Jul 19, 2026, 09:12 PM Jul 20, 2026, 12:25 PM Jul 20, 2026, 04:12 PM Jul 20, 2026, 06:27 PM Jul 21, 2026, 06:55 PM Jul 21, 2026, 08:55 PM Jul 21, 2026, 11:18 PM Jul 22, 2026, 04:13 PM Jul 25, 2026, 11:27 PM | — |
Jerusalem Post Outlet | 62 | 0.05 · Excellent (1) | |
Ynet Outlet | 60 | Jul 15, 2026, 02:02 AM Jul 16, 2026, 04:56 PM Jul 20, 2026, 04:12 PM Jul 30, 2026, 05:04 AM Aug 8, 2026, 08:37 AM Aug 9, 2026, 02:08 AM | 0.11 · Good (1) |
Srugim Outlet | 57 | Aug 14, 2026, 09:56 AM Aug 17, 2026, 10:12 AM Aug 17, 2026, 10:45 AM Aug 18, 2026, 05:52 PM | — |
Reuters Outlet | 46 as of Jun 9, 2026 | Jun 3, 2026, 04:59 PM Jun 7, 2026, 05:58 PM Jun 9, 2026, 01:54 PM Jun 9, 2026, 02:59 PM | — |
Al Jazeera Outlet | 44 | Jul 1, 2026, 11:56 PM Jul 14, 2026, 11:43 AM Jul 15, 2026, 12:13 PM Jul 20, 2026, 04:12 PM | 0.17 · Good (1) |
Presstv Other source | 80 | Jul 15, 2026, 01:11 AM Jul 20, 2026, 04:12 PM | — |
presstv.ir Other source | 80 | — | — |
Kirill Semenov Other source | 68 | Aug 5, 2026, 01:09 AM Aug 12, 2026, 12:41 PM | — |
admin Other source | 58 | Jul 14, 2026, 11:23 PM Jul 20, 2026, 04:12 PM | 0.46 · Poor (1) |
Sean Carney Other source | 58 | Aug 18, 2026, 05:05 PM | — |
Tamila Varshalomidze; Mersiha Gadzo Other source | 48 | Aug 18, 2026, 03:45 AM | — |
Orly Halpern; Kafr Qana; Israel Other source | 5 | Aug 18, 2026, 04:48 AM | — |
Morad Elsana Other source | 0 | Jul 14, 2026, 11:11 AM Aug 18, 2026, 06:15 AM | — |
John Strawson Other source | 0 | Aug 18, 2026, 03:14 AM | — |
John Kunza Other source | 0 | Aug 18, 2026, 04:22 AM | — |
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