A running track record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: OpenExpected resolution date: Jan 1, 2027Last updated: Oct 5, 2026
The next Israeli government will not include any Arab ministers by December 31, 2026.
What is the probability that The next Israeli government will not include any Arab ministers by December 31, 2026? As of Oct 5, 2026: the evidence estimate is 48%; the tracked-source panel average is 53%.
Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists
Evidence estimate
48%
Who called it — by source
Panel average: 53%Main disagreement
High confidence — Middle East Eye.Low confidence — Amit Segal.
The articles behind this
67 articlesEvery article the Oracul read on this forecast, newest first. A piece re-read across several snapshots counts once.
- Amit SegalOct 5, 2026, 01:58 AMt.me
- SrugimOct 4, 2026, 11:02 AMsrugim.co.il
- Ben CaspitOct 4, 2026, 10:21 AMt.me
- YnetOct 3, 2026, 08:19 PMynet.co.il
- Al JazeeraOct 2, 2026, 09:34 PMaljazeera.com
- Le MondeOct 2, 2026, 08:52 PMlemonde.fr
- Wesley DockeryOct 2, 2026, 07:00 PMdw.com
- Agence France-Presse Oct 1Oct 2, 2026, 07:39 AMal-monitor.com
- Al JazeeraOct 1, 2026, 03:15 PMaljazeera.net
- SrugimSep 28, 2026, 08:52 AMsrugim.co.il
- Bettina MeierSep 28, 2026, 06:59 AMtagesschau.de
- SrugimSep 27, 2026, 04:28 PMsrugim.co.il
- JNSSep 27, 2026, 02:57 PMjns.org
- Jerusalem PostSep 27, 2026, 09:49 AMjpost.com
- SrugimSep 27, 2026, 08:48 AMsrugim.co.il
- YnetSep 27, 2026, 07:07 AMynet.co.il
- tehrantimes.comSep 26, 2026, 06:10 PMtehrantimes.com
- Al JazeeraSep 26, 2026, 02:01 PMaljazeera.com
- Khaled Yousef; Mohammad SioSep 25, 2026, 12:00 AMaa.com.tr
- tagesschau.deSep 24, 2026, 05:42 PMtagesschau.de
Show all 67 articles
- Khaled Yousef; Ikram KouachiSep 24, 2026, 03:19 PMaa.com.tr
- Middle East EyeSep 24, 2026, 01:36 PMmiddleeasteye.net
- Le MondeSep 24, 2026, 12:47 PMlemonde.fr
- Globes correspondentSep 24, 2026, 06:57 AMen.globes.co.il
- Al JazeeraSep 24, 2026, 05:23 AMaljazeera.com
- Al JazeeraSep 23, 2026, 11:11 PMaljazeera.net
- Jerusalem PostSep 23, 2026, 04:50 PMjpost.com
- SrugimSep 23, 2026, 08:08 AMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimSep 22, 2026, 07:18 PMsrugim.co.il
- Yinon MagalSep 20, 2026, 12:39 PMt.me
- כיכר השבת; יוני גבאיSep 19, 2026, 07:50 PMkikar.co.il
- SrugimSep 17, 2026, 03:35 PMsrugim.co.il
- Julio SegadorSep 14, 2026, 04:31 PMtagesschau.de
- tehrantimes.comSep 9, 2026, 07:42 PMtehrantimes.com
- Ben CaspitSep 5, 2026, 04:36 PMt.me
- Ben CaspitSep 5, 2026, 04:36 PMt.me
- Marianna BelenkayaSep 5, 2026, 04:36 PMt.me
- Emma Graham-HarrisonSep 5, 2026, 04:36 PMtheguardian.com
- SrugimSep 3, 2026, 08:34 PMsrugim.co.il
- Zein Khalil; Serdar DincelAug 27, 2026, 05:38 AMaa.com.tr
- SrugimAug 25, 2026, 08:55 AMsrugim.co.il
- MaarivAug 24, 2026, 01:01 AMmaariv.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 23, 2026, 06:14 PMjpost.com
- SrugimAug 23, 2026, 06:58 AMsrugim.co.il
- tehrantimes.comAug 21, 2026, 07:32 PMtehrantimes.com
- SrugimAug 18, 2026, 05:52 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 17, 2026, 10:45 AMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 17, 2026, 10:12 AMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 14, 2026, 09:56 AMsrugim.co.il
- Kirill SemenovAug 12, 2026, 12:41 PMt.me
- YnetAug 9, 2026, 02:08 AMynet.co.il
- Nadav Eyal · YnetAug 8, 2026, 08:37 AMynet.co.il
- Middle East EyeAug 7, 2026, 09:47 AMmiddleeasteye.net
- Ben CaspitAug 6, 2026, 08:15 PMt.me
- Jerusalem PostAug 6, 2026, 06:27 PMjpost.com
- Kirill SemenovAug 5, 2026, 01:09 AMt.me
- YnetJul 30, 2026, 05:04 AMynet.co.il
- Jerusalem PostJul 29, 2026, 10:02 PMjpost.com
- Ben CaspitJul 27, 2026, 11:59 AMt.me
- Jerusalem PostJul 21, 2026, 08:55 PMjpost.com
- YnetJul 16, 2026, 04:56 PMynet.co.il
- Middle East EyeJul 16, 2026, 03:34 PMmiddleeasteye.net
- Middle East EyeJul 15, 2026, 06:26 AMmiddleeasteye.net
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 02:02 AMynet.co.il
- Middle East EyeJul 14, 2026, 04:08 PMmiddleeasteye.net
- Al JazeeraJul 1, 2026, 11:56 PMaljazeera.net
- ReutersJun 3, 2026, 04:59 PMyahoo.com
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