A running track record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: OpenExpected resolution date: Oct 28, 2030Last updated: Oct 1, 2026
The next Prime Minister of Israel (after the October 27, 2026 Knesset elections) will serve for less than a full four-year term.
What is the probability that The next Prime Minister of Israel (after the October 27, 2026 Knesset elections) will serve for less than a full four-year term? As of Oct 1, 2026: the evidence estimate is 43%; the tracked-source panel average is 48%.
Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists
Evidence estimate
43%
Who called it — by source
Panel average: 48%| Source / Person | Confidence | Confidence Over Time | Brier / Track Record |
|---|---|---|---|
Jerusalem Post Outlet | 58 | 0.2 · Fair (10) | |
Al Jazeera Outlet | 48 | 0.14 · Good (8) | |
Srugim Outlet | 37 | 0.26 · Poor (10) | |
Said Amori; Mohammad Sio Other source | 71 | — | |
Abdel Raouf Arnaout; Lina Altawell Other source | 56 | — | |
David E Rosenberg Other source | 32 | — |
The articles behind this
9 articlesEvery article the Oracul read on this forecast, newest first. A piece re-read across several snapshots counts once.
- SrugimOct 1, 2026, 09:27 AMsrugim.co.il
- Al JazeeraSep 27, 2026, 03:43 AMaljazeera.net
- Said Amori; Mohammad SioSep 27, 2026, 12:19 AMaa.com.tr
- Abdel Raouf Arnaout; Lina AltawellSep 14, 2026, 04:17 PMaa.com.tr
- Al JazeeraSep 14, 2026, 04:17 PMaljazeera.com
- Jerusalem PostSep 14, 2026, 04:17 PMjpost.com
- SrugimSep 14, 2026, 04:17 PMsrugim.co.il
- Jerusalem PostSep 9, 2026, 06:40 AMjpost.com
- David E RosenbergSep 4, 2026, 09:51 AMforeignpolicy.com
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