DaatanElections 2026
עברית/EN
A running track record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: OpenExpected resolution date: Jan 1, 2027Last updated: Oct 5, 2026

Benjamin Netanyahu will form the next government in Israel by December 31, 2026.

What is the probability that Benjamin Netanyahu will form the next government in Israel by December 31, 2026? As of Oct 5, 2026: the evidence estimate is 48%; the tracked-source panel average is 54%.

Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists

View on Daatan
Evidence estimate
48%

Who called it — by source

Panel average: 54%
Source / PersonConfidenceConfidence Over TimeBrier / Track Record
Amit Segal
Person
59
0.3 · Poor (6)
Ben Caspit
Person
46
0.29 · Poor (11)
Nadav Eyal
Person
77
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.32 · Poor (3)
Anna Barsky
Person
66
as of Aug 27, 2026
0.1 · Good (3)
Guy Bechor
Person
53
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.3 · Poor (4)
Hananya Naftali
Person
53
—
Le Monde
Outlet
72
as of Aug 26, 2026
—
JNS
Outlet
69
—
Israel National News
Outlet
66
0.34 · Poor (7)
Walla
Outlet
58
0.16 · Good (11)
Ynetnews
Outlet
57
0.14 · Good (7)
Associated Press
Outlet
52
as of May 21, 2026
—
Jerusalem Post
Outlet
51
0.2 · Fair (10)
Srugim
Outlet
51
0.26 · Poor (10)
Middle East Eye
Outlet
49
as of Sep 3, 2026
0.22 · Fair (4)
Maariv
Outlet
48
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.15 · Good (9)
Ynet
Outlet
47
0.13 · Good (11)
Al Jazeera
Outlet
42
0.14 · Good (8)
BBC News
Outlet
34
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
Reuters
Outlet
26
as of May 21, 2026
—
iranherald.com
Other source
100
as of Aug 15, 2026
—
כיכר השבת
Other source
81
as of Sep 3, 2026
0.17 · Good (1)
reflector.com
Other source
80
as of May 31, 2026
—
Nils A Haug
Other source
80
—
abc17news.com
Other source
73
as of May 31, 2026
—
כיכר השבת; יוני גבאי
Other source
68
0.3 · Poor (6)
2news.com
Other source
67
as of May 31, 2026
—
Ayush Pandey
Other source
65
—
Abu Ali Express
Other source
65
—
heraldglobe.com
Other source
64
as of May 31, 2026
—
כיכר השבת; דוד הכהן
Other source
64
—
Agence France-Presse Oct 5
Other source
63
—
Joe Fisher
Other source
62
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
Tarek Chouiref; Khaled Yousef
Other source
62
—
Yinon Magal
Other source
60
0.07 · Excellent (2)
Lisa Hornung
Other source
57
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
David E Rosenberg
Other source
56
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
toronto.citynews.ca
Other source
55
as of May 31, 2026
—
HaTzel
Other source
55
—
pbs.org
Other source
52
—
Aaron David Miller; Daniel C Kurtzer
Other source
52
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
novinite.bg
Other source
50
as of May 31, 2026
—
Patrick Große
Other source
48
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
HaPargod
Other source
48
0.15 · Good (2)
Emma Graham-Harrison
Other source
45
as of Aug 24, 2026
0 · Excellent (1)
Marianna Belenkaya
Other source
43
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.34 · Poor (4)
Michael Robbins; Amaney A Jamal; Mark Tessler
Other source
43
—
yahoo.com
Other source
42
as of Jun 13, 2026
—
Analysis by Andrew Carey; CNN
Other source
42
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
Zain Khalil; Lina Altawell
Other source
42
—
en.globes.co.il
Other source
41
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.72 · Poor (1)
Shaun TANDON Aug
Other source
40
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
al-monitor.com
Other source
37
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.28 · Poor (2)
aa.com.tr
Other source
34
as of Aug 25, 2026
0.35 · Poor (3)
Abdelraouf Arnaout; Mohammad Sio
Other source
31
0.09 · Excellent (3)
Maayan Lubell Sep 8
Other source
31
—
tehrantimes.com
Other source
30
—
Khaled Yousef; Ikram Kouachi
Other source
30
—
TOI World Desk
Other source
27
as of Aug 24, 2026
0 · Excellent (1)
Said Amori; Mohammad Sio
Other source
27
—
Zein Khalil; Serdar Dincel
Other source
20
as of Aug 27, 2026
0.72 · Poor (2)
Rina Bassist
Other source
20
as of Aug 27, 2026
—
Or-ly Barlev
Other source
6
—

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