A running track record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: Resolved — Came trueExpected resolution date: Sep 12, 2026Last updated: Sep 10, 2026
Yoaz Hendel will run in the 26th Knesset elections as part of a party he leads or founded, and will not join another existing list.
Did it come true: Yoaz Hendel will run in the 26th Knesset elections as part of a party he leads or founded, and will not join another existing list? Resolved: yes — it came true.
Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists
Final estimate
62%
Came trueResolved Sep 16, 2026
The Oracul's final estimate before resolution was 62%.Hedged
Best call
- Al Jazeera100%Brier 0.00 · 1 article
Biggest miss
- Marianna Belenkaya10%Brier 0.81 · 1 article
Who was right — scored
Panel average: 58%HedgedRanked by Brier score on this forecast alone: the squared gap between a source's last recorded confidence and what actually happened. 0 is a perfect call, 0.25 is a coin flip.
| Rank | Source / Person | Final call | Verdict · Brier | Confidence Over Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Jazeera Outlet | 100 1 article | Called it0.00 | |
| 2 | Amit Segal Person | 90 1 article | Called it0.01 | |
| 3 | Ynet Outlet | 77 19 articles | Called it0.05 | |
| 4 | Jerusalem Post Outlet | 73 16 articles | Called it0.07 | |
| 4 | כיכר השבת; קובי ישראל Other source | 74 1 article | Called it0.07 | |
| 6 | Maariv Outlet | 71 5 articles | Called it0.08 | |
| 7 | Abdelraouf Arnaout; Mohammad Sio Other source | 67 1 article | Called it0.11 | |
| 8 | Ynetnews Outlet | 63 1 article | Hedged0.14 | |
| 9 | Israel National News Outlet | 61 6 articles | Hedged0.15 | |
| 10 | Walla Outlet | 49 15 articles | Hedged0.26 | |
| 11 | Srugim Outlet | 48 26 articles | Hedged0.27 | |
| 12 | Ben Caspit Person | 35 4 articles | Missed0.42 | |
| 12 | Guy Bechor Person | 35 1 article | Missed0.42 | |
| 14 | Nadav Eyal Person | 34 1 article | Missed0.44 | |
| 15 | כיכר השבת; יוני גבאי Other source | 28 1 article | Missed0.52 | |
| 16 | Marianna Belenkaya Other source | 10 1 article | Missed0.81 |
The verdict
Got it right — Al Jazeera, Amit Segal, Ynet, Jerusalem Post, כיכר השבת; קובי ישראל, Maariv, Abdelraouf Arnaout; Mohammad Sio.Got it wrong — Ben Caspit, Guy Bechor, Nadav Eyal, כיכר השבת; יוני גבאי, Marianna Belenkaya.Hedged — Ynetnews, Israel National News, Walla, Srugim.
The articles behind this
99 articlesEvery article the Oracul read on this forecast, newest first. A piece re-read across several snapshots counts once.
- SrugimSep 10, 2026, 08:42 AMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimSep 9, 2026, 01:55 PMsrugim.co.il
- Abdelraouf Arnaout; Mohammad SioSep 8, 2026, 05:47 PMaa.com.tr
- YnetSep 7, 2026, 08:17 PMynet.co.il
- כיכר השבת; קובי ישראלSep 7, 2026, 03:51 PMkikar.co.il
- YnetSep 7, 2026, 01:26 PMynet.co.il
- SrugimSep 7, 2026, 09:20 AMsrugim.co.il
- Jerusalem PostSep 7, 2026, 02:09 AMjpost.com
- WallaSep 6, 2026, 09:22 PMnews.walla.co.il
- SrugimSep 6, 2026, 05:47 PMsrugim.co.il
- WallaSep 6, 2026, 04:15 PMnews.walla.co.il
- SrugimSep 6, 2026, 01:10 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimSep 6, 2026, 01:00 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimSep 6, 2026, 12:08 PMsrugim.co.il
- WallaSep 6, 2026, 06:11 AMnews.walla.co.il
- Jerusalem PostSep 5, 2026, 04:40 PMjpost.com
- Amit SegalSep 4, 2026, 06:09 AMt.me
- SrugimAug 31, 2026, 05:29 PMsrugim.co.il
- כיכר השבת; יוני גבאיAug 31, 2026, 03:06 PMkikar.co.il
- SrugimAug 30, 2026, 12:01 PMsrugim.co.il
Show all 99 articles
- WallaAug 27, 2026, 07:03 PMnews.walla.co.il
- YnetAug 27, 2026, 07:03 PMynet.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 25, 2026, 07:05 PMjpost.com
- Marianna BelenkayaAug 25, 2026, 06:59 PMt.me
- SrugimAug 25, 2026, 06:14 PMsrugim.co.il
- WallaAug 25, 2026, 11:47 AMnews.walla.co.il
- SrugimAug 24, 2026, 01:29 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 24, 2026, 12:18 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 24, 2026, 10:50 AMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 24, 2026, 10:50 AMsrugim.co.il
- Nadav Eyal · YnetAug 24, 2026, 10:50 AMynet.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 24, 2026, 10:38 AMjpost.com
- MaarivAug 24, 2026, 10:38 AMmaariv.co.il
- WallaAug 24, 2026, 10:04 AMnews.walla.co.il
- SrugimAug 24, 2026, 09:54 AMsrugim.co.il
- MaarivAug 24, 2026, 03:37 AMmaariv.co.il
- YnetAug 24, 2026, 01:09 AMynet.co.il
- WallaAug 23, 2026, 05:47 PMnews.walla.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 23, 2026, 05:26 PMjpost.com
- YnetAug 23, 2026, 12:40 PMynet.co.il
- MaarivAug 23, 2026, 12:30 PMmaariv.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 23, 2026, 12:19 PMjpost.com
- SrugimAug 23, 2026, 11:58 AMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 20, 2026, 04:36 PMsrugim.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 19, 2026, 07:32 PMjpost.com
- SrugimAug 19, 2026, 11:08 AMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 18, 2026, 06:53 PMsrugim.co.il
- MaarivAug 17, 2026, 09:33 PMmaariv.co.il
- SrugimAug 17, 2026, 10:48 AMsrugim.co.il
- WallaAug 17, 2026, 10:37 AMnews.walla.co.il
- Guy BechorAug 17, 2026, 10:37 AMt.me
- MaarivAug 17, 2026, 10:16 AMmaariv.co.il
- SrugimAug 17, 2026, 08:06 AMsrugim.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 16, 2026, 09:36 PMjpost.com
- WallaAug 16, 2026, 06:58 PMnews.walla.co.il
- SrugimAug 16, 2026, 02:18 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 14, 2026, 01:09 PMsrugim.co.il
- Ben CaspitAug 13, 2026, 12:40 PMt.me
- Jerusalem PostAug 11, 2026, 12:22 PMjpost.com
- Ben CaspitAug 10, 2026, 04:46 PMt.me
- Ben CaspitAug 10, 2026, 04:22 PMt.me
- SrugimAug 10, 2026, 03:00 PMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 10, 2026, 11:28 AMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 9, 2026, 05:54 PMsrugim.co.il
- YnetnewsAug 6, 2026, 11:36 PMynetnews.com
- YnetAug 6, 2026, 08:19 PMynet.co.il
- WallaAug 6, 2026, 06:38 PMnews.walla.co.il
- WallaAug 6, 2026, 05:28 PMnews.walla.co.il
- Israel National NewsAug 6, 2026, 03:51 AMisraelnationalnews.com
- Jerusalem PostAug 5, 2026, 11:04 PMjpost.com
- YnetAug 5, 2026, 06:39 PMynet.co.il
- YnetAug 2, 2026, 03:45 PMynet.co.il
- WallaAug 2, 2026, 12:05 PMnews.walla.co.il
- WallaJul 30, 2026, 10:37 PMnews.walla.co.il
- YnetJul 30, 2026, 09:16 PMynet.co.il
- Jerusalem PostJul 28, 2026, 12:28 AMjpost.com
- Jerusalem PostJul 27, 2026, 06:57 PMjpost.com
- YnetJul 26, 2026, 04:25 PMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 26, 2026, 02:10 PMynet.co.il
- Jerusalem PostJul 24, 2026, 12:20 AMjpost.com
- Israel National NewsJul 23, 2026, 12:40 PMisraelnationalnews.com
- Israel National NewsJul 21, 2026, 09:46 PMisraelnationalnews.com
- Israel National NewsJul 17, 2026, 01:19 PMisraelnationalnews.com
- WallaJul 16, 2026, 06:40 PMnews.walla.co.il
- Ben CaspitJul 16, 2026, 06:40 PMt.me
- Jerusalem PostJul 15, 2026, 09:03 PMjpost.com
- Al JazeeraJul 15, 2026, 01:12 PMaljazeera.net
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 09:33 AMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 04:15 AMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 15, 2026, 02:26 AMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 14, 2026, 05:07 PMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 14, 2026, 02:53 PMynet.co.il
- WallaJul 14, 2026, 01:35 PMnews.walla.co.il
- Israel National NewsJul 14, 2026, 12:48 PMisraelnationalnews.com
- YnetJul 14, 2026, 12:08 PMynet.co.il
- YnetJul 14, 2026, 12:08 PMynet.co.il
- Israel National NewsJul 7, 2026, 04:35 PMisraelnationalnews.com
- Jerusalem PostJul 7, 2026, 01:30 PMjpost.com
- Jerusalem PostJul 7, 2026, 01:30 PMjpost.com
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