A running record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: OpenExpected resolution date: Sep 12, 2026Last updated: Aug 20, 2026
Yoaz Hendel will run in the 26th Knesset elections as part of a party he leads or founded, and will not join another existing list.
What is the probability that Yoaz Hendel will run in the 26th Knesset elections as part of a party he leads or founded, and will not join another existing list? As of Aug 20, 2026: the AI estimate is 97%; the tracked-source panel average is 62%.
Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists
AI estimate
97%
Who called it — by source
Panel average: 62%| Source / Person | Confidence | Confidence Over Time | Brier / Track Record |
|---|---|---|---|
Amit Segal Person | — | — | — |
Ben Caspit Person | 30 | Jul 16, 2026, 06:40 PM Aug 10, 2026, 04:22 PM Aug 10, 2026, 04:46 PM Aug 13, 2026, 12:40 PM | 0.42 · Poor (1) |
Nadav Eyal Person | — | — | — |
Tal Shalev Person | — | — | — |
Anna Barsky Person | — | — | — |
Edy Cohen Person | — | — | — |
Guy Bechor Person | 35 | Aug 17, 2026, 10:37 AM | — |
Hananya Naftali Person | — | — | — |
Khaled Abu Toameh Person | — | — | — |
Nasser Al-Lahham Person | — | — | — |
Ynetnews Outlet | 100 | Aug 6, 2026, 11:36 PM | 0.06 · Excellent (1) |
Al Jazeera Outlet | 100 as of Jul 15, 2026 | Jul 15, 2026, 01:12 PM | 0.17 · Good (1) |
Jerusalem Post Outlet | 84 | Jul 7, 2026, 04:35 PM Jul 7, 2026, 08:41 PM Jul 10, 2026, 12:15 AM | 0.05 · Excellent (1) |
Walla Outlet | 71 | Jul 14, 2026, 01:35 PM Jul 16, 2026, 06:40 PM Jul 30, 2026, 10:37 PM Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 PM Aug 6, 2026, 05:28 PM Aug 6, 2026, 06:38 PM Aug 12, 2026, 10:34 AM Aug 12, 2026, 12:01 PM Aug 16, 2026, 06:58 PM Aug 17, 2026, 10:37 AM Aug 19, 2026, 02:38 PM | 0.03 · Excellent (1) |
Israel National News Outlet | 71 | Jul 7, 2026, 04:35 PM Jul 14, 2026, 12:48 PM Jul 14, 2026, 05:07 PM Jul 14, 2026, 05:49 PM Jul 15, 2026, 06:23 AM Jul 15, 2026, 06:48 AM Jul 15, 2026, 12:22 PM Jul 15, 2026, 12:48 PM Jul 15, 2026, 03:54 PM Jul 15, 2026, 04:50 PM Jul 15, 2026, 07:15 PM Jul 15, 2026, 09:03 PM Jul 15, 2026, 10:15 PM Jul 15, 2026, 10:41 PM Jul 16, 2026, 02:07 PM Jul 16, 2026, 02:55 PM Jul 16, 2026, 06:40 PM Jul 17, 2026, 01:19 AM Jul 17, 2026, 04:39 AM Jul 17, 2026, 05:01 AM Jul 17, 2026, 05:37 AM Jul 17, 2026, 10:45 AM Jul 17, 2026, 01:19 PM Jul 18, 2026, 12:28 AM Jul 18, 2026, 01:41 AM Jul 19, 2026, 09:22 PM Jul 21, 2026, 09:46 PM Jul 22, 2026, 08:47 AM Jul 22, 2026, 12:36 PM Jul 22, 2026, 04:16 PM Jul 22, 2026, 11:15 PM Jul 23, 2026, 12:40 PM Jul 24, 2026, 12:20 AM Jul 26, 2026, 08:53 AM Jul 26, 2026, 10:36 AM Aug 6, 2026, 03:51 AM Aug 17, 2026, 05:15 PM Aug 19, 2026, 02:38 PM | — |
Ynet Outlet | 62 | Jul 14, 2026, 12:08 PM Jul 14, 2026, 02:53 PM Jul 14, 2026, 05:07 PM Jul 15, 2026, 02:26 AM Jul 15, 2026, 04:15 AM Jul 15, 2026, 09:33 AM Jul 16, 2026, 06:40 PM Jul 17, 2026, 01:19 AM Jul 17, 2026, 04:39 AM Jul 17, 2026, 05:01 AM Jul 17, 2026, 05:37 AM Jul 17, 2026, 10:45 AM Jul 17, 2026, 01:19 PM Jul 17, 2026, 06:09 PM Jul 18, 2026, 12:28 AM Jul 18, 2026, 01:41 AM Jul 18, 2026, 10:05 PM Jul 26, 2026, 02:10 PM Jul 26, 2026, 04:25 PM Jul 27, 2026, 06:57 PM Jul 30, 2026, 09:16 PM Aug 2, 2026, 03:45 PM Aug 5, 2026, 06:39 PM Aug 6, 2026, 08:19 PM Aug 17, 2026, 10:37 AM Aug 19, 2026, 02:38 PM | 0.11 · Good (1) |
Maariv Outlet | 56 | Aug 12, 2026, 10:05 AM Aug 17, 2026, 10:16 AM Aug 17, 2026, 09:33 PM | — |
Srugim Outlet | 48 | Aug 9, 2026, 05:54 PM Aug 10, 2026, 11:28 AM Aug 10, 2026, 03:00 PM Aug 12, 2026, 09:44 AM Aug 14, 2026, 01:09 PM Aug 16, 2026, 02:18 PM Aug 17, 2026, 08:06 AM Aug 17, 2026, 10:37 AM Aug 17, 2026, 10:48 AM Aug 18, 2026, 06:53 PM Aug 19, 2026, 11:08 AM Aug 20, 2026, 04:36 PM | — |
Main disagreement
High confidence — Ynetnews, Walla, Jerusalem Post, Israel National News.Low confidence — Ben Caspit, Guy Bechor.
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