A running track record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: Resolved — Came trueExpected resolution date: Sep 12, 2026Last updated: Sep 8, 2026
At least two Arab parties will run in the 2026 elections as a joint list.
Did it come true: At least two Arab parties will run in the 2026 elections as a joint list? Resolved: yes — it came true.
Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists
Final estimate
76%
Came trueResolved Sep 16, 2026
The Oracul's final estimate before resolution was 76%.Called it
Best call
- Srugim88%Brier 0.01 · 3 articles
- Walla89%Brier 0.01 · 3 articles
- Marianna Belenkaya90%Brier 0.01 · 1 article
- Yinon Magal90%Brier 0.01 · 1 article
Who was right — scored
Panel average: 71%Called itRanked by Brier score on this forecast alone: the squared gap between a source's last recorded confidence and what actually happened. 0 is a perfect call, 0.25 is a coin flip.
| Rank | Source / Person | Final call | Verdict · Brier | Confidence Over Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Srugim Outlet | 88 3 articles | Called it0.01 | |
| 1 | Walla Outlet | 89 3 articles | Called it0.01 | |
| 1 | Marianna Belenkaya Other source | 90 1 article | Called it0.01 | |
| 1 | Yinon Magal Other source | 90 1 article | Called it0.01 | |
| 5 | Ynet Outlet | 78 4 articles | Called it0.05 | |
| 6 | Maariv Outlet | 75 2 articles | Called it0.06 | |
| 7 | Israel National News Outlet | 74 4 articles | Called it0.07 | |
| 8 | Middle East Eye Outlet | 70 2 articles | Called it0.09 | |
| 9 | Khaled Abu Toameh Person | 65 1 article | Called it0.12 | |
| 9 | Ynetnews Outlet | 65 1 article | Called it0.12 | |
| 11 | Julio Segador Other source | 63 1 article | Hedged0.14 | |
| 12 | Ben Caspit Person | 60 5 articles | Hedged0.16 | |
| 13 | Jerusalem Post Outlet | 58 11 articles | Hedged0.18 | |
| 14 | Al Jazeera Outlet | 56 2 articles | Hedged0.19 | |
| 15 | HaPargod Other source | 46 1 article | Hedged0.29 |
The verdict
Got it right — Srugim, Walla, Marianna Belenkaya, Yinon Magal, Ynet, Maariv, Israel National News, Middle East Eye, Khaled Abu Toameh, Ynetnews.Hedged — Julio Segador, Ben Caspit, Jerusalem Post, Al Jazeera, HaPargod.
The articles behind this
42 articlesEvery article the Oracul read on this forecast, newest first. A piece re-read across several snapshots counts once.
- HaPargodSep 8, 2026, 10:46 AMt.me
- Jerusalem PostSep 7, 2026, 04:30 PMjpost.com
- Julio SegadorSep 7, 2026, 04:30 PMtagesschau.de
- YnetnewsSep 7, 2026, 04:30 PMynetnews.com
- SrugimSep 6, 2026, 11:17 AMsrugim.co.il
- Ben CaspitSep 5, 2026, 04:38 PMt.me
- Ben CaspitSep 5, 2026, 04:38 PMt.me
- Jerusalem PostSep 5, 2026, 04:38 PMjpost.com
- Yinon MagalSep 2, 2026, 07:03 PMt.me
- YnetAug 29, 2026, 12:21 PMynet.co.il
- Israel National NewsAug 28, 2026, 07:55 AMisraelnationalnews.com
- Jerusalem PostAug 25, 2026, 07:18 PMjpost.com
- Marianna BelenkayaAug 25, 2026, 06:59 PMt.me
- Khaled Abu ToamehAug 24, 2026, 12:11 PMgatestoneinstitute.org
- Israel National NewsAug 24, 2026, 10:47 AMisraelnationalnews.com
- YnetAug 24, 2026, 10:47 AMynet.co.il
- MaarivAug 22, 2026, 04:12 PMmaariv.co.il
- YnetAug 22, 2026, 02:53 PMynet.co.il
- Middle East EyeAug 20, 2026, 01:31 PMmiddleeasteye.net
- Israel National NewsAug 20, 2026, 12:31 AMisraelnationalnews.com
Show all 42 articles
- MaarivAug 19, 2026, 07:34 PMmaariv.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 19, 2026, 06:35 PMjpost.com
- WallaAug 19, 2026, 04:45 PMnews.walla.co.il
- Al JazeeraAug 19, 2026, 04:25 PMaljazeera.com
- SrugimAug 19, 2026, 03:47 PMsrugim.co.il
- Ben CaspitAug 19, 2026, 03:25 PMt.me
- Ben CaspitAug 19, 2026, 12:06 PMt.me
- Al JazeeraAug 19, 2026, 08:18 AMaljazeera.net
- SrugimAug 18, 2026, 08:12 PMsrugim.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 17, 2026, 10:34 AMjpost.com
- WallaAug 17, 2026, 10:34 AMnews.walla.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 16, 2026, 02:34 PMjpost.com
- WallaAug 13, 2026, 11:23 PMnews.walla.co.il
- YnetAug 10, 2026, 08:00 PMynet.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 9, 2026, 08:15 PMjpost.com
- Middle East EyeAug 7, 2026, 09:48 AMmiddleeasteye.net
- Jerusalem PostAug 4, 2026, 06:20 AMjpost.com
- Jerusalem PostAug 3, 2026, 09:57 PMjpost.com
- Israel National NewsJul 27, 2026, 05:55 PMisraelnationalnews.com
- Ben CaspitJul 22, 2026, 05:44 PMt.me
- Jerusalem PostJul 4, 2026, 12:39 AMjpost.com
- Jerusalem PostJul 4, 2026, 12:39 AMjpost.com
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