A running record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: OpenExpected resolution date: Sep 12, 2026Last updated: Aug 20, 2026
At least two Arab parties will run in the 2026 elections as a joint list.
What is the probability that At least two Arab parties will run in the 2026 elections as a joint list? As of Aug 20, 2026: the AI estimate is 97%; the tracked-source panel average is 72%.
Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists
AI estimate
97%
Who called it — by source
Panel average: 72%| Source / Person | Confidence | Confidence Over Time | Brier / Track Record |
|---|---|---|---|
Amit Segal Person | — | — | — |
Ben Caspit Person | 71 | Jul 22, 2026, 05:44 PM Aug 19, 2026, 12:06 PM Aug 19, 2026, 03:25 PM | 0.42 · Poor (1) |
Nadav Eyal Person | — | — | — |
Tal Shalev Person | — | — | — |
Anna Barsky Person | — | — | — |
Edy Cohen Person | — | — | — |
Guy Bechor Person | — | — | — |
Hananya Naftali Person | — | — | — |
Khaled Abu Toameh Person | — | — | — |
Nasser Al-Lahham Person | — | — | — |
Maariv Outlet | 100 | Aug 19, 2026, 07:34 PM | — |
Srugim Outlet | 88 | Aug 18, 2026, 08:12 PM Aug 19, 2026, 03:47 PM | — |
Walla Outlet | 75 | Aug 13, 2026, 11:23 PM Aug 17, 2026, 10:34 AM Aug 19, 2026, 04:45 PM | 0.03 · Excellent (1) |
Ynet Outlet | 73 | Aug 10, 2026, 08:00 PM | 0.11 · Good (1) |
Israel National News Outlet | 73 | Jul 27, 2026, 05:55 PM Aug 17, 2026, 05:15 PM Aug 20, 2026, 12:31 AM | — |
Jerusalem Post Outlet | 58 | Aug 3, 2026, 09:57 PM | 0.05 · Excellent (1) |
Al Jazeera Outlet | 56 | Aug 19, 2026, 08:18 AM Aug 19, 2026, 04:25 PM | 0.17 · Good (1) |
Middle East Eye Outlet | 52 | Aug 7, 2026, 09:48 AM Aug 20, 2026, 01:31 PM | 0 · Excellent (1) |
Morad Elsana Other source | 33 as of Jul 14, 2026 | Jul 14, 2026, 11:43 AM | — |
theconversation.com Other source | 33 | — | — |
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