A running record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: OpenExpected resolution date: Sep 1, 2026Last updated: Aug 20, 2026
The Blue and White party, led by Benny Gantz, will announce by the end of August 2026 that it will not run in the next elections as an independent party.
What is the probability that The Blue and White party, led by Benny Gantz, will announce by the end of August 2026 that it will not run in the next elections as an independent party? As of Aug 20, 2026: the AI estimate is 47%; the tracked-source panel average is 45%.
Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists
AI estimate
47%
Who called it — by source
Panel average: 45%| Source / Person | Confidence | Confidence Over Time | Brier / Track Record |
|---|---|---|---|
Amit Segal Person | — | — | — |
Ben Caspit Person | 60 | Aug 17, 2026, 10:43 AM | 0.42 · Poor (1) |
Nadav Eyal Person | — | — | — |
Tal Shalev Person | — | — | — |
Anna Barsky Person | — | — | — |
Edy Cohen Person | — | — | — |
Guy Bechor Person | — | — | — |
Hananya Naftali Person | — | — | — |
Khaled Abu Toameh Person | — | — | — |
Nasser Al-Lahham Person | — | — | — |
Jerusalem Post Outlet | 69 | Aug 20, 2026, 09:24 PM | 0.05 · Excellent (1) |
Srugim Outlet | 53 | Aug 13, 2026, 09:19 PM Aug 14, 2026, 10:08 AM Aug 18, 2026, 06:40 PM | — |
Walla Outlet | 35 | Aug 6, 2026, 04:08 PM | 0.03 · Excellent (1) |
Maariv Outlet | 30 | Aug 19, 2026, 10:51 AM | — |
Ynet Outlet | 23 | Aug 6, 2026, 04:08 PM | 0.11 · Good (1) |
Main disagreement
High confidence — Jerusalem Post.Low confidence — Ynet, Walla, Maariv.
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