A running track record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: Resolved — Did not happenExpected resolution date: Sep 1, 2026Last updated: Aug 30, 2026
The Blue and White party, led by Benny Gantz, will announce by the end of August 2026 that it will not run in the next elections as an independent party.
Did it come true: The Blue and White party, led by Benny Gantz, will announce by the end of August 2026 that it will not run in the next elections as an independent party? Resolved: no — it did not come true.
Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists
Final estimate
48%
Did not happenResolved Sep 16, 2026
The Oracul's final estimate before resolution was 48%.Hedged
Biggest miss
- Jerusalem Post70%Brier 0.49 · 1 article
Who was right — scored
Panel average: 45%HedgedRanked by Brier score on this forecast alone: the squared gap between a source's last recorded confidence and what actually happened. 0 is a perfect call, 0.25 is a coin flip.
| Rank | Source / Person | Final call | Verdict · Brier | Confidence Over Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ynet Outlet | 26 2 articles | Called it0.07 | |
| 1 | Maariv Outlet | 26 1 article | Called it0.07 | |
| 3 | Walla Outlet | 30 4 articles | Called it0.09 | |
| 4 | Guy Bechor Person | 50 1 article | Hedged0.25 | |
| 5 | Srugim Outlet | 53 6 articles | Hedged0.28 | |
| 6 | Ben Caspit Person | 60 1 article | Hedged0.36 | |
| 7 | Jerusalem Post Outlet | 70 1 article | Missed0.49 |
The verdict
Got it right — Ynet, Maariv, Walla.Got it wrong — Jerusalem Post.Hedged — Guy Bechor, Srugim, Ben Caspit.
The articles behind this
16 articlesEvery article the Oracul read on this forecast, newest first. A piece re-read across several snapshots counts once.
- SrugimAug 30, 2026, 04:19 PMsrugim.co.il
- Guy BechorAug 30, 2026, 11:30 AMt.me
- WallaAug 29, 2026, 08:28 PMnews.walla.co.il
- WallaAug 27, 2026, 04:11 PMnews.walla.co.il
- SrugimAug 25, 2026, 05:13 PMsrugim.co.il
- YnetAug 25, 2026, 01:47 PMynet.co.il
- WallaAug 25, 2026, 12:03 PMnews.walla.co.il
- SrugimAug 25, 2026, 11:43 AMsrugim.co.il
- Jerusalem PostAug 20, 2026, 09:24 PMjpost.com
- MaarivAug 19, 2026, 10:51 AMmaariv.co.il
- SrugimAug 18, 2026, 06:40 PMsrugim.co.il
- Ben CaspitAug 17, 2026, 10:43 AMt.me
- SrugimAug 14, 2026, 10:08 AMsrugim.co.il
- SrugimAug 13, 2026, 09:19 PMsrugim.co.il
- WallaAug 6, 2026, 04:08 PMnews.walla.co.il
- YnetAug 6, 2026, 04:08 PMynet.co.il
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