Did not happenResolved Jul 23, 2026
The Israeli parliament will be dissolved by July 15, 2026.
What they said at close
Oracle
3%Called it
Pundit panel
29%Called it
Polymarket
—No estimate
A running track record of political judgmentResolved forecasts
What has been settled — and who called it
Every 2026 election forecast that has already resolved: what actually happened, on what evidence, and what the Daatan Oracle, the pundit panel and the Polymarket market were saying just before it closed. This record is never deleted or rewritten after the fact.
Scorecard
1 Resolved forecasts · 10 still openOracle
100%
Hit rate 1/1Brier 0 · Excellent
1 forecasts
Pundit panel
100%
Hit rate 1/1Brier 0.08 · Excellent
1 forecasts
Polymarket
—
Hit rateBrier —
0 of 1 forecasts
Hit rate counts a final estimate as a call when it leaned the right way (65%+ for yes, 40% or less for no); anything in between is a hedge. Brier: lower is better, 0.25 is a coin flip.