About this site
Daatan Elections tracks every forecast about Israel's 2026 election that is open on Daatan, and measures who reads the political map well: the Oracul, the pundit panel and the prediction market. This page explains what each number means and where it comes from.
Where the forecasts come from
Each forecast is a yes/no question with a deadline, created on Daatan with its resolution criteria fixed in advance. This site reads those forecasts and shows them; it never creates, edits or resolves one.
The Oracul
Daatan's Oracul reads published articles and public channels about each question, records where every tracked source stands as a confidence from 0 to 100, and produces an estimate of its own. The estimate is updated as new evidence arrives and its history is kept, so every page shows how a forecast moved — not only where it stands.
The panel
The panel is a fixed list of 10 commentators and 16 outlets. A source counts toward a forecast's panel average only when the Oracul has found it taking a position on that forecast, and only while that position is backed by evidence from the last 30 days; the average is the plain mean of the sources that qualify. Sources outside the panel that the Oracul cites appear on the forecast page but are not averaged.
All sources →How calls are scored
A final estimate of 65% or more counts as calling "yes", 40% or less as calling "no", and anything in between as a hedge. Every estimator — Oracul, panel and market — also gets a Brier score, the average squared distance between its probability and what happened: 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip, lower is better.
Resolution
A forecast is resolved on Daatan against the criteria written when it was created. Once resolved, the outcome, the evidence and every estimator's last estimate are recorded on the Resolved page and never rewritten.
All resolved forecasts →Polymarket
Where a Polymarket market asks the same question, its price is shown beside the Oracul and the panel, and scored the same way when the forecast resolves.
Who called it right
The pundit leaderboard ranks tracked commentators with the same rating system Daatan uses for its own users. A commentator enters the board once at least 3 of their calls have resolved.
Who called it right? →Independence
This site only reads Daatan's database. It has no accounts, takes no votes and writes nothing back — so nothing you do here can move a forecast. If you want to weigh in, vote on Daatan; every forecast page links to its page there.
Want to vote too? Open Daatan →Daatan Elections is run by Daatan and follows its terms of use and privacy policy. Questions and corrections: office@daatan.com