A running record of political judgmentForecasts
Israel 2026 Election Forecasts
Who reads political reality best? Every 2026-election forecast, ranked by the sources that covered it — with an AI estimate and, where available, a market price (Polymarket).
11 Forecasts
- OpenJan 1, 2027
Likud will win the next general election in Israel held by December 31, 2026.
26 sources237 articlesLast updated: Aug 21, 2026AI estimate46% - OpenJan 1, 2027
Benjamin Netanyahu will be the Prime Minister of Israel on December 31, 2026.
38 sources212 articlesLast updated: Aug 21, 2026AI estimate50%Polymarket28% - OpenJan 1, 2027
Likud will secure more than 33 seats in the next Israeli Knesset election by December 31, 2026.
18 sources186 articlesLast updated: Aug 21, 2026AI estimate40%Polymarket16% - OpenSep 12, 2026
A single large political list will not be formed, including at least four of the following six politicians: Benny Gantz, Yoaz Hendel, Hili Tropper, Ayelet Shaked, Yuli Edelstein, and Gilaad Erdan, by the final deadline for submitting candidate lists for the next general elections in Israel, expected to take place by December 31, 2026.
14 sources84 articlesLast updated: Aug 20, 2026AI estimate47% - OpenJan 1, 2031
A law mandating Haredi enlistment into the Israel Defense Forces will be passed by the Knesset by December 31, 2030.
11 sources63 articlesLast updated: Aug 17, 2026AI estimate45% - OpenSep 12, 2026
Yoaz Hendel will run in the 26th Knesset elections as part of a party he leads or founded, and will not join another existing list.
9 sources45 articlesLast updated: Aug 20, 2026AI estimate97% - OpenJan 1, 2027
The next Israeli government will not include any Arab ministers by December 31, 2026.
12 sources29 articlesLast updated: Aug 18, 2026AI estimate62% - OpenSep 12, 2026
At least two Arab parties will run in the 2026 elections as a joint list.
11 sources23 articlesLast updated: Aug 20, 2026AI estimate97% - OpenSep 12, 2026
Benny Gantz's party will run in the 2026 elections without an electoral alliance with another party until the deadline for submitting lists to the Central Elections Committee.
6 sources20 articlesLast updated: Aug 20, 2026AI estimate34% - OpenSep 1, 2026
The Blue and White party, led by Benny Gantz, will announce by the end of August 2026 that it will not run in the next elections as an independent party.
6 sources8 articlesLast updated: Aug 20, 2026AI estimate47% - ResolvedJul 16, 2026
The Israeli parliament will be dissolved by July 15, 2026.
10 sources25 articlesLast updated: Jul 16, 2026AI estimate3%
Israel 2026 election forecasts
Daatan continuously tracks forecasts for Israel's 2026 election: who will win, who the next prime minister will be, which parties will clear the electoral threshold, and who will form the next government. Every forecast carries a live, evidence-based probability alongside the positions of the commentators and outlets we track.
Unlike a poll tracker, the record itself is measured here: which pundits have been right before, which outlets read the political map accurately, and how each forecast has moved over time — all the way to election day.