A running track record of political judgmentForecasts
Israel 2026 Election Forecasts
Who reads political reality best? Every 2026-election forecast, ranked by the sources that covered it — with an evidence estimate and, where available, a market price (Polymarket).
16 Open forecasts
- OpenJan 1, 2027
Benjamin Netanyahu will win the 2026 Israeli general election and be appointed Prime Minister.
42 sources341 articlesLast updated: Oct 5, 2026Evidence estimate48%Polymarket36% - OpenJan 1, 2027
Likud will win the next general election in Israel held by December 31, 2026.
26 sources298 articlesLast updated: Oct 5, 2026Evidence estimate45% - OpenJan 1, 2027
Benjamin Netanyahu will form the next government in Israel by December 31, 2026.
41 sources291 articlesLast updated: Oct 5, 2026Evidence estimate48% - OpenJan 1, 2027
Benjamin Netanyahu will be the Prime Minister of Israel on December 31, 2026.
41 sources277 articlesLast updated: Oct 5, 2026Evidence estimate50%Polymarket61% - OpenJan 1, 2027
Likud will secure more than 33 seats in the next Israeli Knesset election by December 31, 2026.
19 sources255 articlesLast updated: Oct 5, 2026Evidence estimate22% - OpenJan 1, 2027
Benjamin Netanyahu will be appointed Prime Minister of Israel following the next general election, by December 31, 2026.
35 sources170 articlesLast updated: Oct 5, 2026Evidence estimate45% - OpenNov 5, 2026
The first government sworn in after the next Knesset elections will include at least one party from the current opposition and one party from the current coalition.
22 sources157 articlesLast updated: Oct 5, 2026Evidence estimate62% - OpenNov 5, 2026
In the next Knesset elections, at least two parties currently represented in the Knesset will run and fail to pass the electoral threshold.
20 sources155 articlesLast updated: Oct 5, 2026Evidence estimate63% - OpenOct 28, 2026
Gadi Eisenkot will be Prime Minister of Israel after the elections held on October 27, 2026, possibly as part of a rotation agreement.
20 sources117 articlesLast updated: Oct 5, 2026Evidence estimate63% - OpenJan 1, 2031
A law mandating Haredi enlistment into the Israel Defense Forces will be passed by the Knesset by December 31, 2030.
14 sources84 articlesLast updated: Oct 5, 2026Evidence estimate52% - OpenNov 5, 2026
In the next Knesset elections, no single party will receive more than 25 seats.
17 sources65 articlesLast updated: Oct 2, 2026Evidence estimate56% - OpenJan 1, 2027
The next Israeli government will not include any Arab ministers by December 31, 2026.
22 sources62 articlesLast updated: Oct 5, 2026Evidence estimate48% - OpenOct 28, 2026
Naftali Bennett will be sworn in as the next Prime Minister of Israel.
12 sources36 articlesLast updated: Sep 29, 2026Evidence estimate59%Polymarket11% - OpenOct 28, 2026
The voting percentage of Haredi Jews will be higher than that of non-Haredi Jews in the Israeli elections on October 27, 2026.
5 sources15 articlesLast updated: Sep 24, 2026Evidence estimate56% - OpenJan 1, 2027
Am Yisrael will not pass the electoral threshold in the next general elections for the Knesset by December 31, 2026.
6 sources15 articlesLast updated: Oct 5, 2026Evidence estimate29% - OpenOct 28, 2030
The next Prime Minister of Israel (after the October 27, 2026 Knesset elections) will serve for less than a full four-year term.
6 sources9 articlesLast updated: Oct 1, 2026Evidence estimate43%
11 Resolved forecasts
All resolved forecasts →- Came trueResolved Sep 27, 2026
Itamar Ben-Gvir will not reserve a spot for Hanoch Milwidsky on the Otzma Yehudit party list for the next general elections in Israel.
Final estimate51%Hedged - Came trueResolved Sep 27, 2026
Itamar Ben-Gvir will not reserve a spot for Idit Silman on the Otzma Yehudit party list by December 31, 2026.
Final estimate24%Missed - Came trueResolved Sep 16, 2026
At least two Arab parties will run in the 2026 elections as a joint list.
Final estimate76%Called it - Came trueResolved Sep 16, 2026
Benny Gantz's party will run in the 2026 elections without an electoral alliance with another party until the deadline for submitting lists to the Central Elections Committee.
Final estimate64%Hedged - Came trueResolved Sep 16, 2026
Yoaz Hendel will run in the 26th Knesset elections as part of a party he leads or founded, and will not join another existing list.
Final estimate62%Hedged - Came trueResolved Sep 16, 2026
At least one party will announce its withdrawal from the race for the 26th Knesset by the deadline for submitting candidate lists.
Final estimate97%Called it - Came trueResolved Sep 16, 2026
Yoav Segalovitz will be a candidate on the Ra'am party list in the next Knesset elections.
Final estimate86%Called it - Did not happenResolved Sep 16, 2026
The Blue and White party, led by Benny Gantz, will announce by the end of August 2026 that it will not run in the next elections as an independent party.
Final estimate48%Hedged - Came trueResolved Sep 16, 2026
A single large political list will not be formed, including at least four of the following six politicians: Benny Gantz, Yoaz Hendel, Hili Tropper, Ayelet Shaked, Yuli Edelstein, and Gilaad Erdan, by the final deadline for submitting candidate lists for the next general elections in Israel, expected to take place by December 31, 2026.
Final estimate54%Hedged - Came trueResolved Aug 20, 2026
By August 18, 2026, the Yeshar Party will lead Likud in at least two different national mandate polls, and in at least one of these polls, the lead will be two mandates or more.
Final estimate55%Hedged - Did not happenResolved Jul 23, 2026
The Israeli parliament will be dissolved by July 15, 2026.
Final estimate3%Called it
Israel 2026 election forecasts
Daatan continuously tracks forecasts for Israel's 2026 election: who will win, who the next prime minister will be, which parties will clear the electoral threshold, and who will form the next government. Every forecast carries a live, evidence-based probability alongside the positions of the commentators and outlets we track.
Unlike a poll tracker, the track record itself is measured here: which pundits have been right before, which outlets read the political map accurately, and how each forecast has moved over time — all the way to election day.