A running record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: OpenExpected resolution date: Jan 1, 2027Last updated: Aug 21, 2026

Likud will win the next general election in Israel held by December 31, 2026.

What is the probability that Likud will win the next general election in Israel held by December 31, 2026? As of Aug 21, 2026: the AI estimate is 46%; the tracked-source panel average is 49%.

Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists

AI estimate
46%

Who called it — by source

Panel average: 49%
Source / PersonConfidenceConfidence Over TimeBrier / Track Record
Amit Segal
Person
39
Ben Caspit
Person
49
0.42 · Poor (1)
Nadav Eyal
Person
35
as of Jul 17, 2026
Anna Barsky
Person
46
Guy Bechor
Person
65
as of Jul 17, 2026
JNS
Outlet
100
as of Jul 15, 2026
Ynetnews
Outlet
65
0.06 · Excellent (1)
BBC News
Outlet
65
Middle East Eye
Outlet
53
0 · Excellent (1)
Maariv
Outlet
52
Le Monde
Outlet
51
Walla
Outlet
49
0.03 · Excellent (1)
Srugim
Outlet
49
Ynet
Outlet
48
0.11 · Good (1)
Jerusalem Post
Outlet
42
0.05 · Excellent (1)
Israel National News
Outlet
39
Al Jazeera
Outlet
35
0.17 · Good (1)
arabic.euronews.com
Other source
100
as of Jul 11, 2026
1 · Poor (1)
Bethan McKernan
Other source
100
chinadailyhk.com
Other source
100
theguardian.com
Other source
75
NEWS WIRES
Other source
62
france24.com
Other source
62
David E Rosenberg
Other source
59
foreignpolicy.com
Other source
59
Marianna Belenkaya
Other source
55
Bettina Meier
Other source
52
as of Jul 17, 2026
tagesschau.de
Other source
52
Emma Graham-Harrison
Other source
49
0 · Excellent (1)
Gianluca Pacchiani Aug
Other source
47
pbs.org
Other source
41
as of Jul 21, 2026
Michael Blum; Yaelle Ifrah Jul
Other source
41
Rina Bassist
Other source
39
as of Jul 14, 2026
Maayan Lubell Jul
Other source
38
al-monitor.com
Other source
36
as of Jul 13, 2026
0.41 · Poor (1)
en.globes.co.il
Other source
34
Emily Rose Aug
Other source
28
tehrantimes.com
Other source
27
as of Jul 15, 2026
TOI World Desk
Other source
24
timesofindia.indiatimes.com
Other source
24
Main disagreement

High confidence Ynetnews, BBC News.Low confidence Amit Segal, Al Jazeera, Israel National News.

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