DaatanElections 2026
עברית/EN
A running track record of political judgmentSingle Forecast View
Status: OpenExpected resolution date: Jan 1, 2027Last updated: Oct 5, 2026

Likud will win the next general election in Israel held by December 31, 2026.

What is the probability that Likud will win the next general election in Israel held by December 31, 2026? As of Oct 5, 2026: the evidence estimate is 45%; the tracked-source panel average is 48%.

Resolution trigger: Final deadline for submitting candidate lists

View on Daatan
Evidence estimate
45%

Who called it — by source

Panel average: 48%
Source / PersonConfidenceConfidence Over TimeBrier / Track Record
Amit Segal
Person
32
as of Aug 16, 2026
0.3 · Poor (6)
Ben Caspit
Person
45
as of Aug 26, 2026
0.29 · Poor (11)
Nadav Eyal
Person
37
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.32 · Poor (3)
Anna Barsky
Person
56
0.1 · Good (3)
Guy Bechor
Person
65
as of Jul 17, 2026
0.3 · Poor (4)
Ynetnews
Outlet
63
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.14 · Good (7)
Le Monde
Outlet
55
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
Srugim
Outlet
54
0.26 · Poor (10)
Maariv
Outlet
52
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.15 · Good (9)
Ynet
Outlet
48
0.13 · Good (11)
Walla
Outlet
48
0.16 · Good (11)
Jerusalem Post
Outlet
45
0.2 · Fair (10)
Al Jazeera
Outlet
39
0.14 · Good (8)
Israel National News
Outlet
39
as of Sep 5, 2026
0.34 · Poor (7)
Middle East Eye
Outlet
22
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.22 · Fair (4)
Yinon Magal
Other source
74
as of Sep 5, 2026
0.07 · Excellent (2)
Globes Whistleblower team
Other source
69
—
HaPargod
Other source
69
0.15 · Good (2)
Faruk Hanedar; Serdar Dincel
Other source
55
—
David E Rosenberg
Other source
53
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
en.globes.co.il
Other source
52
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.72 · Poor (1)
Gianluca Pacchiani Aug
Other source
52
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
כיכר השבת; דוד הכהן
Other source
51
—
Marianna Belenkaya
Other source
50
as of Aug 18, 2026
0.34 · Poor (4)
כיכר השבת; משה כהן
Other source
50
as of Sep 3, 2026
—
Bettina Meier
Other source
49
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
כיכר השבת; יוני גבאי
Other source
47
0.3 · Poor (6)
Michael Blum; Yaelle Ifrah Jul
Other source
46
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
Emma Graham-Harrison
Other source
41
as of Aug 24, 2026
0 · Excellent (1)
al-monitor.com
Other source
40
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.28 · Poor (2)
Maayan Lubell Jul
Other source
39
as of Aug 24, 2026
0.14 · Good (1)
כיכר השבת; קובי ישראל
Other source
39
0.16 · Good (2)
כיכר השבת; אריה רוזן
Other source
39
—
pbs.org
Other source
35
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
aa.com.tr
Other source
35
as of Aug 25, 2026
0.35 · Poor (3)
Abdel Ra'ouf D A R Arnaout; Rania Abushamala
Other source
34
—
Zein Khalil; Serdar Dincel
Other source
33
as of Aug 27, 2026
0.72 · Poor (2)
tehrantimes.com
Other source
31
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
Rina Bassist
Other source
30
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
כיכר השבת; משה בשן
Other source
28
0.17 · Good (2)
TOI World Desk
Other source
26
as of Aug 24, 2026
0 · Excellent (1)
Emily Rose Aug
Other source
25
as of Aug 24, 2026
—
Lorenzo Tondo; Quique Kierszenbaum; Ana Lucía González Paz
Other source
25
—
Said Amori; Rania Abushamala
Other source
21
—
Zein Khalil; Mohammad Sio
Other source
19
—
Lina Altawell
Other source
15
—
Khaled Yousef; Rania Abushamala
Other source
13
—

The articles behind this

334 articles

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