DaatanElections 2026

A running record of political judgmentBy author

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Ben Caspit

Election predictions and coverage by Ben Caspit

50 articles

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Forecasts covered

At least two Arab parties will run in the 2026 elections as a joint list.
The next Israeli government will not include any Arab ministers by December 31, 2026.
The Israeli parliament will be dissolved by July 15, 2026.
The Blue and White party, led by Benny Gantz, will announce by the end of August 2026 that it will not run in the next elections as an independent party.
A single large political list will not be formed, including at least four of the following six politicians: Benny Gantz, Yoaz Hendel, Hili Tropper, Ayelet Shaked, Yuli Edelstein, and Gilaad Erdan, by the final deadline for submitting candidate lists for the next general elections in Israel, expected to take place by December 31, 2026.
Benjamin Netanyahu will be the Prime Minister of Israel on December 31, 2026.
Likud will win the next general election in Israel held by December 31, 2026.
A law mandating Haredi enlistment into the Israel Defense Forces will be passed by the Knesset by December 31, 2030.
Likud will secure more than 33 seats in the next Israeli Knesset election by December 31, 2026.
Benny Gantz's party will run in the 2026 elections without an electoral alliance with another party until the deadline for submitting lists to the Central Elections Committee.
Yoaz Hendel will run in the 26th Knesset elections as part of a party he leads or founded, and will not join another existing list.

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