עד ל-18 באוגוסט 2026, מפלגת ישר תוביל על הליכוד בשני סקרי מנדטים ארציים שונים לפחות, ובאחד מהסקרים הללו לפחות, הפער יהיה שני מנדטים ומעלה.

The forecast requires the Yeshar Party to lead Likud in at least two different national mandate polls by August 18, 2026, with at least one of these polls showing a lead of two mandates or more. The news context provides evidence for this: 1. A 'Zman Yisrael survey' reported by The Times of Israel on August 14, 2026, stated that 'Yashar's margin over Likud grows to 4 seats'. This poll was published by the deadline and shows Yeshar leading Likud by more than two mandates. 2. A poll reported by The Jerusalem Post on July 20, 2026, stated that 'The results are the first in which Likud fell below Eisenkot's Yashar'. This indicates Yeshar leading Likud in a separate poll published by the deadline. These two distinct polls satisfy all conditions of the forecast.